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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


FUNDRAISING SIREN - RIDING THAT WAVE: The National Republican Congressional Committee took in $11.2 million for the month of September, clocking the NRCC's best fundraising month since the 2006 cycle and fueling the committee's ad barrage against a lengthening list of Democratic targets. "With the infusion of cash that continues to come in at a heavy clip, we now expect to spend $50 million on the air in approximately 65 districts," NRCC communications director Ken Spain said. "For the past seven weeks, the NRCC has outspent the DCCC on the air and we will continue to do everything within in our power to retire House Speaker Nancy Pelosi." The NRCC has vowed to spend $45 million in 62 seats, and most recently went up against the formerly safe-looking Tennessee Rep. Lincoln Davis. http://bit.ly/cCIxzO


FIRST IN SCORE - CARNAHAN'S STAND: Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, fending off questions about national Democrats' commitment to her Senate campaign, will start airing a new television commercial today aimed at deflecting a wave of attacks from GOP Rep. Roy Blunt. In her commercial, Carnahan alludes to Blunt's spots linking her to a stimulus-funded wind farm project in which her one of her brothers is involved. "Blowing through Missouri: Roy Blunt's negative ads about wind farms," the narrator in Carnahan's ad says, calling the commercials "false" and "untrue." Carnahan's ad shows flyers and pieces of newsprint blowing across a field, carrying messages like: "Roy Blunt's negative ads 'not supported.'" The script continues: "They can't hide Roy Blunt's record of sticking it to us. Blunt gave tax breaks to big oil while they gouge us at the pump, and voted to ship our jobs to countries like China." The kicker: "Now that you've gotten wind of all that, are you going to let Roy Blunt off the hook?" Watch it here: http://bit.ly/ckFziC


MORE - FIGHT NIGHT: Carnahan and Blunt are set to meet this evening for the first of two debates and the Democrat will be looking to draw blood. The AP reported yesterday that Democrats have scaled back their ad reservations in Missouri - at least for now - in order to buy more airtime in Nevada. From the wire: "Democrats plan to sink more than $2 million into Harry Reid's home state of Nevada in the final weeks of the campaign, but have begun scaling back in Missouri where polls show their candidate trailing. ... Democrats have cut airtime reservations for the state in the next two weeks, too, but they still could decide to run ads during that period." http://bit.ly/bPkbQ4


As the midterm price tag rises, AFL-CIO brass hits the road and the DNC recaptures the 2008 magic, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.


COLORADO PREVIEW - BUCK'S CLOSING ARGUMENT - Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck's newest television ad zooms out from policy specifics to deliver a broad, thematic case for ousting Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. The spot shows a clip of Buck at the Pueblo Chieftain debate on Oct. 7, denouncing Congress's governing record and recalling: "We protested when the government ran up trillions of dollars of debt. We sent e-mails when they nationalized health care. We asked them to get off the backs of small business." Buck continues, leaning into a people-versus-the-powerful pitch: "They heard us, and yet they ignored us. And folks, on Nov. 2 they will ignore us no longer." Democrats have hoped to dent Buck's numbers recently by attacking his record as a prosecutor, and they landed a blow this week over Buck's handling of a 2005 rape case. But this commercial is clearly designed to take advantage of the wider political environment, beyond the daily back-and-forth of the campaign against Bennet. Watch the ad here: http://bit.ly/ahUBLD


AND - KIRK KEEPS SWINGING: Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk continues to beat the deficit-hawk drum, running a radio spot that attacks Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias on taxes and advertises his own "conservative and tight-fisted approach on taxes and spending." "Alexi Giannoulias was recently asked what federal spending he would've voted against," the ad opens. "Here's Alexi's exact response." A clip rolls of Giannoulias saying: "Voted against, uh, specifically?" The narrator jumps back in: "Giannoulias supported the wasteful stimulus. Now he supports even more spending and backs raising both federal and state income taxes to pay for it." This is the No. 1 theme Kirk's running with in both his positive and negative advertising, and this ad again tells listeners: "Mark Kirk is a deficit hawk." Listen to the spot here: http://bit.ly/bdNTl0


ALEXI'S BACKUP - FLOTUS ON THE TRAIL: First lady Michelle Obama made her first campaign stop since 2008 on Wednesday to boost Giannoulias in Chicago, praising his "grace and dignity" and telling supporters: "I am proud of him. We have seen him grow." The Chicago Tribune has more: "Obama spent most of her speech touting health care reform, tax cuts, access to education and a laundry list of the president's achievements, rather than Giannoulias. But she described the Senate race as a key to ensuring the president's promise of change will become a reality. 'My husband can't do this alone,' said Obama, who drew laughter when she referred to Giannoulias as a 'handsome young man.' ... Obama did not mention Republicans, including Giannoulias' GOP opponent, U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk." http://bit.ly/9N0wDj


** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector schools stand ready to do our part. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org today.COMING ATTRACTION - STILL FIRED UP? The Democratic National Committee is releasing a new television ad to coincide with President Barack Obama's town hall today, which is set to take place on BET, CMT and MTV. The spot targets Obama-friendly Democratic constituencies with footage of the president's recent rallies in Madison and Philadelphia. "Two years ago, you defied the conventional wisdom in Washington," Obama says in the ad. "On Nov. 2, we face another test. If the other side does win, they will spend the next two years fighting for the very same policies that led to this recession in the first place." The commercial is running heavily on MSNBC and BET - it's the first DNC spot to run on that network this cycle - with an eye toward reaching core Democratic constituencies that turned out for the 2008 election in exceptional numbers. Watch the DNC spot here. http://bit.ly/bvpx1R


THE BIG 2010 PICTURE - "Rahm's 2006 stars in jeopardy" - POLITICO's John F. Harris is your guide this morning to the woes of the Democratic stars of yesteryear, starting with a flashback to one Wednesday morning in 2006: "Rahm Emanuel sounded like a coach whose team had just won the national championship. Emanuel, the leader of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had reason to boast. ... He praised the new breed of Democratic politicians who - thanks in most cases to disciplined campaign styles and moderate ideological profiles - had 'expanded the field' into dozens of districts in the Northeast, the Upper South, the Ohio River Valley and the Rocky Mountain West, all previously claimed by the GOP. Four years later, Emanuel has just left Washington. And the odds, it seems, are that many of his star recruits of 2006 are about to do the same." Race-by-race snapshots feature Arizona Rep. Harry Mitchell, Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney, Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz, North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler and Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley. http://politi.co/c1zIJT


IN THE WORDS OF KRIS KRISTOFFERSON ... As House Democrats choose where to cut back on their campaign spending, the candidates left behind are finding that freedom is indeed another word for nothing left to lose. Tennessee state Sen. Roy Herron, fighting without DCCC support for retiring Rep. John Tanner's seat, released a statement blaming the committee's decision on his own pledge not to vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker. "If the DCCC pulling ads is the price of independence and following my conscience, so be it," he said. Ohio Rep. Steve Driehaus, facing the same dilemma, set up an online fundraising page touting his votes on health care and Wall Street reform and venting: "Now the DCCC is walking away." Stay tuned for more ... http://bit.ly/bgfZg2 and http://politi.co/94fARv


SNEAK PEEK - WHERE LABOR'S GOING: The AFL-CIO's top three officials will stump in eight different states between now and Oct. 20, bolstering local campaign operations and vote-by-mail turnout programs. AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka will be barnstorming Ohio, stopping in Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus and then heading on to campaign in southeastern Pennsylvania. The union giant's executive vice president, Arlene Holt Baker, is focused on early voting in the Austin, Texas, area. The top campaigner for sheer mileage is AFL-CIO secretary-treasurer Liz Shuler, who starts in Merillville, Ind., today before making her way through Illinois, Oregon, Washington and Delaware, and landing in Pennsylvania. The AFL-CIO has been a blur of activity over the last few weeks: Its grassroots program has distributed 17.5 million flyers at work sites, knocked on 100,000 doors and sent 14.5 million pieces of direct mail. It claims to have swung the generic ballot among union members 17 points in the Democrats' direction.


SCORE EXCLUSIVE - THE CONSIGLIERE SPEAKS: Republican strategist Joe Gaylord, a top adviser to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and one of the architects of the GOP's 1994 victories, has cut an extended podcast advising Republican candidates on how to manage the final three weeks of the campaign. Gaylord has helped lead campaign training sessions through Gingrich's 527 group, American Solutions, and in his message today advises candidates to focus on "10 M's" - "Mapping, Management, Money, Media, Message, Mistakes, Morale, Motivation, Momentum, and Meaning." "A challenger usually has fewer resources than an incumbent. So a challenger has to attack more precisely and quickly," Gaylord says. "You have to be aggressive in bringing out the negatives of your opponent and just as aggressively positive at the same time. ... Help voters understand that there is a difference between you and your opponent. Explain the choice." Get the full how-to here: http://bit.ly/bM1xBz


THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT TODAY: Harry Reid and Republican challenger Sharron Angle will hold their first and only televised debate this evening, meeting at 6 p.m. local time on the Vegas PBS station. The Las Vegas Review-Journal's Laura Myers notes: "The two sides clearly telegraphed their strategies ahead of the debate. Reid will focus on Angle's shifting stances, and she will deflect his attacks as a distraction from the No. 1 voter concern: Nevada's worst-in-the-nation economy, including its record high 14.4 percent jobless rate." http://bit.ly/cYcV9I


POLL(S) OF THE DAY - YOUR WEEKLY CNN - The latest set of Opinion Research numbers commissioned by CNN and Time magazine echoes the conventional wisdom in a set of the year's most-watched races. Democrats are up in Washington and Delaware (Sen. Patty Murray is eight points ahead and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons is up 19), but down in Wisconsin (Sen. Russ Feingold is behind by eight points.) The West Virginia race is a pure tossup, with Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese each taking 44 percent of the vote. In the Wisconsin governor's race, Republican Scott Walker is eight points ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, leading 52 percent to 44 percent. Time's key takeaway is the gender gap: "Women voters are emerging as a firewall for Democrats' hopes of holding the Senate in the 2010 midterm elections, steadying Democratic Senate chances in Washington and Delaware, and providing what could be their candidates' last hope in West Virginia and Wisconsin, where support for the party's picks is fading." http://bit.ly/bwPKsY


PLUS - PPP DOES FLORIDA: Democrat Alex Sink is holding on to a five-point lead in the Florida governor's race, beating Republican Rick Scott thanks to a solid lead among independent voters. PPP's Tom Jensen explains: "In most states across the country Republicans are dominating with them but the intense unpopularity of Scott is making this contest an exception to that rule. 61% of independents have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 20% who see him in a positive light and as a result Sink holds a 53-26 lead with that group ... Scott has at least improved his standing a little bit from PPP's last poll of the race, which found him down by 7. That's largely because the Republican base has warmed up to him." http://bit.ly/bNRTyB


BUT - STORM CLOUDS: As Sink's camp has invested heavily in hits on Scott's business background, airing a two-minute free-media magnet of an ad hammering his tenure at the Columbia/HCA hospital chain, the Republican has intensified his attacks on Sink's term as Florida CFO. That's the larger picture of the race: Sink's one big attack line versus Scott's numerous, smaller attacks that could add up. His campaign's newest target? This Miami Herald headline captures it: "CFO Alex Sink licensed ex-felons to sell insurance after bashing other agency for same" - "At the same time Alex Sink tried to ban felons from selling mortgages in Florida, her own state office was licensing ex-cons in the insurance business. As Florida's chief financial officer, Sink oversees about 527,000 insurance licenses in the state. Her office could not identify how many of those belonged to agents with criminal backgrounds." http://bit.ly/9iQInU


WHAT IT TAKES - ADDING IT UP: The last five weeks of the 2010 cycle have seen almost $200 million in House and Senate campaign advertising, according to a study from the Wesleyan Media Project. POLITICO's Scott Wong has more: "More than $114 million was spent on Senate ads between Sept. 1 and Oct. 7, an 84 percent surge from the same period in 2008. And nearly $84 million paid for House ads, a 65 percent rise. (2008, of course, also featured a presidential election.) Total spending since Jan. 1 was $367 million, up $148 million or 68 percent from 2008. ... House and Senate candidates have spent $130 million from their campaign coffers in the past five weeks, with Democrats spending one and a half times more than Republicans." http://politi.co/cLWv7u


CODA - THIS WEEK IN TIM CAHILL - "Emails appear to link Cahill campaign, Lottery ads," the Boston Herald reports: "In a sign that independent gubernatorial candidate Tim Cahill's bombshell lawsuit may be backfiring, a Norfolk judge today released e-mails indicating the treasurer's campaign made sure the Cahill-run Lottery launched positive ads this fall to boost his sputtering election bid. ... A Cahill spokesman brushed off the e-mails and texts as nothing more than campaign chatter. 'The campaign did not direct the Lottery to run the ad,' said David Kibbe." http://bit.ly/cn1uV6


** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector colleges and universities stand ready to do our part. The millions of students in our schools deserve the same resources and encouragement as those students in other higher education institutions. The sooner collaborative work among all sectors begins, the sooner the dreams of hopeful students can become realities, and our country can meet the demands of the 21st century. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org and tell Congress, "It's my education. My job. My choice."

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