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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


NEVADA EXCLUSIVE - LEAVING LAS VEGAS: Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle is targeting her state's largest city with an arresting new television ad, featuring President Barack Obama's infamous exhortation that companies shouldn't be spending money there. "Harry Reid and Barack Obama: Together they promised change," the ad begins. "Then came this." Two clips of Obama appear in quick succession, showing the president telling audiences: "Don't blow a bunch of cash on Vegas. ... You can't go take a trip to Las Vegas." The narrator takes over again: "What change did that bring to Las Vegas? We now suffer heartbreaking job losses, while our state leads the nation in home foreclosures and bankruptcies." The spot, produced by the GOP firm BrabenderCox, is a variation on a statewide spot Angle's campaign unveiled yesterday, with a less Vegas-specific message: "They promised change. Now, it's our turn." Angle was 4 points ahead of Reid in a Mason-Dixon poll published this morning, leading 49 percent to 45 percent. Watch her new ad here: http://bit.ly/aU4syl and see the polling here: http://bit.ly/cPtu7O


FIRST IN SCORE - IN THE CROSSHAIRS: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is taking aim at Republican John Kasich's record on guns in a new radio campaign featuring Jim Irvine, who heads the Buckeye Firearms Association. "We have a real friend in Ted Strickland, and he has been an unwavering supporter of our Second Amendment rights," says Irvine, whose group is backing Strickland. "The National Rifle Association has always rated Strickland an 'A' and has endorsed him in his campaign for governor." Then, Irvine's message turns negative, announcing that Strickland's "opponent, Congressman John Kasich, is not to be trusted." "While in congress, Kasich received an 'F' from the NRA. Kasich repeatedly voted for the '94 gun ban and Kasich even voted for a ban on deer hunting," Irvine warns. "Kasich went to Washington and turned his back on gun owners ... You can't trust a gun-grabber like Congressman Kasich."


MORE - THE CONTEXT: The Ohio race is a genuine toss-up - one of the closest governor's races in the country - in part because Strickland has competed aggressively for rural voters who are often less receptive to Democrats. The governor's ad follows a very public back-and-forth over guns this week: Republicans filed a complaint charging that Strickland's ads were distorting Kasich's record on guns, but a state elections panel tossed out the charges. http://bit.ly/9ZefZp


As Florida retakes the spotlight, handicappers put their chips down and Joe Biden follows Ron Paul into Iowa, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.


FRIDAY STANDINGS - BETTER OFF NOW? The countdown clock is at t minus four days until Nov. 2. One week from now, we'll know all - or almost all - the actual winners of the 2010 elections. To hold you over, here's Morning Score's last pre-election take on how some of the top candidates and campaign actors should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were seven days ago?


BETTER OFF: (1) Virginia Rep. Tom Perriello and his Republican challenger, Robert Hurt, one of whom will be the victor in a campaign that's been all but officially named the White House's most important House race of the year; (2) Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who's now favored to win the governor's office as an independent and in the process become one of the prêt-a-porter media darlings of 2011; (3) Recount lawyers - think Marc Elias and Ben Ginsberg - whose odds of a very lucrative November go up every day the marquee races in Alaska, Illinois, Washington, Oregon and elsewhere stay totally deadlocked.


WORSE OFF: (1) Virginia Rep. Glenn Nye, the only freshman Democrat in his state who's not getting a presidential visit (like Perriello) or a massive independent expenditure effort on his behalf (like Rep. Gerry Connolly) to close out the campaign; (2) Former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich, who had his you-won't-have-Nixon-to-kick-around moment a bit early this week when he confessed it's unlikely he'll run for office again if he loses his rematch with Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley; (3) Former President Bill Clinton, who's going to finish the 2010 campaign under the cloud of an unsuccessful effort to get Rep. Kendrick Meek out of the Florida Senate race, instead of basking in the glow of his remarkable political popularity.


SENATE PREVIEW I - BLAGO SIGHTING: Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk's latest ad wields his military record against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, in an effort to make the Democrat suffer for his harsh criticism of Kirk's economic record and personal ethics. "Giannoulias's latest attack on Mark Kirk's patriotism is called 'reckless ... immature ... shameful," the ad begins, quoting the Chicago Tribune. The script continues, as an image of Kirk in combat gear appears on screen: "Mark Kirk has served in the U.S. military for 21 years. Alexi never served a day. But Alexi was Blagojevich's rubber stamp for spending and debt." The ad closes with a final image of Giannoulias and his indicted former governor, as the announcer delivers the finishing line: "Giannoulias: Too liberal. Too immature to be our senator." Watch it here: http://bit.ly/d4HUaG


SENATE PREVIEW II - UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL: Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold is banking that candor pays off in his newest television commercial, which shows the senator standing outside, clad in a casual plaid shirt, saying to the camera: "I understand who I work for." He continues: "Not a political party. Not the special interests. I work for you, so I've been an independent voice for Wisconsin and the No. 1 enemy of the Washington lobbyists." Two polls this week showed slightly different pictures of the Senate race: A We the People/Wisconsin survey showed Feingold down 4 points against Republican challenger Ron Johnson, while PPP put that gap at a more daunting 9 points. Feingold's ad banks on the hope that voters still retain some affection for the incumbent, as the senator tells viewers: "When times are tough, it's important that you have a senator on your side ... I've worked hard to earn your trust and I'd like to keep working for you, moving Wisconsin forward." Watch the ad here: http://bit.ly/ab7rmg (Polling here: http://bit.ly/dyWuwd and here: http://bit.ly/9FDnOL )


** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: Comcast has hired a vast army of lobbyists to rush through the largest media merger in American history. The Comcast/NBC monopoly would present serious problems for local news in communities across our country. Washington's decision makers must resist the pressure from Comcast and take the necessary time to carefully review this controversial merger to protect the public interest. **CHECK YOUR MAILBOXES - STICKING WITH SESTAK: NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC is mounting a last-minute mail campaign in the Pennsylvania Senate race, targeting 175,000 Philadelphia-area households with mail pieces attacking Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey's record on abortion. "If Pat Toomey gets his way, doctors who should be on a hospital floor would be in a cell block instead," the mailer warns. "Pat Toomey's anti-choice/anti-woman views give us no choice but to vote NO on Pat Toomey!" NARAL Pro-Choice America has been involved in this race since even before the Democratic primary, backing Rep. Joe Sestak's primary challenge to party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter. Nancy Keenan, the group's president, predicted in a statement that the race is "set to go down to the wire," explaining: "We want to ensure that these pro-choice voters know exactly how extreme Pat Toomey is." The most recent surveys of the race have shown Toomey regaining a small lead over Sestak after the Democrat surged in the polls last week. See NARAL's mail piece here: http://bit.ly/9l23HI


HANDICAPPERS PLACE THEIR BETS: The time for prognostication is just about over, and as political handicappers make their final House predictions there's a consensus emerging that Republicans will likely pick up something in the low- to mid-50-seat range. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: "Before Labor Day we issued a projection of +47 net gains for the Republicans. ... Thus, we are raising the total to +55 net R seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still, but more of a floor than a ceiling." ... The Rothenberg Political Report: "House Democrats appear headed for a historic bloodbath, with losses probably exceeding 1994's 52 seats. We estimate likely GOP House gains at 55 to 65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible." ... 538's Nate Silver: "The model's best guess is that the new Congress will be composed of 203 Democrats and 232 Republicans: a net gain of 53 seats for the G.O.P. In addition, Democratic odds of retaining the House dropped to 17 percent from 20 percent." ... Charlie Cook: "The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible." http://bit.ly/d815ov and http://bit.ly/crlJCc and http://bit.ly/98ya7z and http://bit.ly/9oL51Q


FLORIDA SIREN - "Clinton pushed Meek to quit Florida race" - POLITICO's Ben Smith scoops: "Bill Clinton sought to persuade Rep. Kendrick Meek to drop out of the race for Senate during a trip to Florida last week - and nearly succeeded. Meek agreed - twice - to drop out and endorse Gov. Charlie Crist's independent bid in a last-ditch effort to stop Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee who stands on the cusp of national stardom. ... The former president's top aide, Doug Band, initially served as the intermediary between Meek and Crist, and Clinton became involved only when Meek signaled that he would seriously consider the option, Clinton spokesman Matt McKenna confirmed to POLITICO. 'The argument was: "You can be a hero here. You can stop him, you can change this race in one swoop,"' said another Democrat familiar with the conversations, who said Clinton had bluntly told Meek that he couldn't win the race. ... Meek issued a calibrated denial, taking issue with the statements by Crist and Clinton's spokesman. ... Meek conceded that Clinton had asked him about reports that he was going to drop out, but suggested that he'd quickly ended the conversation, and he stressed that he had never actually decided to drop out." http://politi.co/9SL3JH


TODAY - From the White House guidance: "In the morning, the Vice President will travel to Dubuque, Iowa. At 12:30 PM, the Vice President will deliver remarks at a rally for Representative Bruce Braley. ... In the evening, the President will travel to Charlottesville, Virginia. ... Later, the President will deliver remarks at a rally for Congressman Perriello."


WHY OBAMA'S GOING - Your Morning Score correspondent offers this explanation: "In the last days of the 2010 campaign, the first-term Virginia congressman's reelection bid has become a rallying point for Democrats nationwide, as party leaders and left-leaning interest groups scramble to ensure that at least one vulnerable liberal lawmaker is left standing after Nov. 2. ... [L]iberal independent groups have deployed an incredible sum - about $1.6 million over a 10-day period ending midday Thursday ... Ramona Oliver, a spokeswoman for the America's Families First Action Fund, explained the group's thinking: 'As we have looked across the country at races where we have invested, we have tried to find those places where we feel we can really make a difference. ... On top of it, there's this additional driver, that this is a man of integrity, who has stood up for what he believes is right for his district.'" http://politi.co/cq8lsQ


2012 TALKER - SPOTTED IN IOWA: Texas Rep. Ron Paul was back in Des Moines last night and refused to rule out another presidential run in an interview with Kathie Obradovich of the Des Moines Register. "My answer has been pretty straight-forward that yes, I'm thinking about it but I'm uncertain, don't know," he said. More from the Register: "Paul's speech was clearly a crowd-pleaser. Lots of spontaneous applause from a group that contained lots of home-schoolers. The event was a fundraiser for Iowa House Republican candidates Glen Massie and Kim Pearson and Senate candidate Kent Sorenson. All three candidates seem to identify more with the tea party movement than the GOP." http://bit.ly/9oHzNE


DEBATE WRAP - Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn and Republican state Sen. Bill Brady left blood on the mat at their last debate Thursday night, the Tribune reports: "Quinn portrayed Brady as the bearer of 'nonsensical' plans that won't lead the state forward, while Brady accused Quinn of standing by his 'partner' Gov. Rod Blagojevich as he ran Illinois into the ground." ... And Louisiana's Senate candidates finished their second debate on the same topic that kicked off the campaign, the Times Picayune reports: "[Democratic Rep. Charlie] Melancon repeatedly accused [Sen. David] Vitter of hypocrisy and panelists pressed the senator on whether he broke the law when he committed a 'serious sin' involving a Washington, D.C. prostitution ring. Vitter refused to go beyond his earlier statements about the D.C. Madam and said he believes he has been forgiven by his family and 'my God.' He said the voters he has encountered at town hall meetings are willing to look beyond his indiscretions." http://bit.ly/8Zh2yH and http://bit.ly/bUCw84


POLL OF THE DAY - TIGHT IN FLORIDA - The Orlando Sentinel calls the governor's race "skintight" and sums up why the race joins Ohio on the too-close-to-call list: "Florida's nasty gubernatorial contest has come down to this: If Republican Rick Scott is going to win the keys to the Governor's Mansion in Tallahassee, GOP voters must turn out in large numbers - and put aside their reservations about his business past. Two polls released Thursday find Scott has high negative ratings and trails Democrat Alex Sink - but by just 4 percentage points or fewer. A big Republican voter turnout fueled by voter anger at Washington Democrats could still turn the tide Tuesday." http://bit.ly/90Jj0R


NOT SO TIGHT IN TEXAS: A pair of surveys popping overnight show Republican Gov. Rick Perry in a solid position to win reelection and extend his record tenure in office. In a poll commissioned by five Texas newspapers, Perry was ahead of former Houston Mayor Bill White by 12 points, leading 49 percent to 37 percent. PPP had the race at an only slightly tighter 9-point margin, with Perry at 53 percent to White's 44 percent. Texas pollster Mickey Blum's provocative, cable-ready take: "Texas is voting for symbolic secession, choosing Texas over Washington. ... Bill White is not from D.C., but this is not about Bill White." http://bit.ly/cwAzB2 and http://bit.ly/aRxPSG


CODA - TWEET OF THE DAY - "We like to keep it real. And by real, I mean 'weird'" - GOP consultant @TheRickWilson, on Florida elections http://bit.ly/bnymqb


** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: If the Comcast and NBC merger is rushed through the process, our country risks losing a powerful part of our democracy - locally-owned, independent voices in markets where Comcast/NBC will control both access to the home and multiple channels of news. Dropping the independent news voice won't serve the consumer. It will only serve the interests of Comcast which would also own the other news channels. Please make sure that any merger approval serves the public interest and protects the local news consumers you represent. Don't let Comcast ram this monopoly merger through the review process. **

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