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Today's Playbook Power Briefing presented by Morgan Stanley

By ANNA PALMER (anna@politico.com; @apalmerdc), JAKE SHERMAN (sherman@politico.com; @JakeSherman), DANIEL LIPPMAN (daniel@politico.com; @dlippman) and ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Good Monday afternoon. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- PAUL RYAN'S OCTOBER FUNDRAISING NUMBERS -- Speaker PAUL RYAN will announce tomorrow at a closed party meeting that he's transferring $1.5 million to the NRCC, bringing his total transfers to the campaign committee to $30 million this year. He's raised $40 million this year. Ryan will be raising money later this week in the southeast.

GRIDIRON WINTER DINNER SPEAKERS -- Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.).

ON THE GROUND -- ALEX BURNS on A1 of today's NYT in West Caldwell, New Jersey -- "Tax Plan Burdens Blue-State Republicans and Their Districts": "It is in places like West Caldwell, in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District, where Republicans are facing the most furious internal resistance in their drive to overhauling the tax code -- and the greatest political risks if they succeed. Indeed, Republican proposals to raise revenue by targeting high-tax states dominated by Democrats could endanger Republicans in districts like this one, particularly in states like New Jersey, New York and California, perhaps putting the party's majority in Congress in peril."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b817536ba8e30d4748b986548f9dd06c0d9ed710a378655557bb300da164e62893f9a22c5d2a7c2b19

THE LATEST FROM TEXAS -- "Sheriff: 'Wherever you walked in the church, it was death,'" by The San Antonio Express-News' Caleb Downs: "The inside of First Baptist Church of Sutherland Springs was like something out of a nightmare when Wilson County Sheriff Joe D. Tackitt arrived. 'Wherever you walked in the church, it was death,' he said.

"Inside the chapel, bodies lay strewn about and almost everyone inside was covered in blood, making it difficult to distinguish the wounded and dead from the uninjured. 'It was just horrific,' he said. 'Words can't express what was there. It's hard enough to see adults, but when you see babies, little ones, I'm talking 3, 4, 5, 6 years old. 10 years old. It's just hard.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8e084b450d03403c7c466698475d9261480f9d22fcda8ba1b104d5192e097ef7f84aec842371061d7

-- AP: "Texas church gunman had 3 guns; no carry license" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b80fa8f8862b4c20b78d999c9e9594f5ea7f443a347027e364d4ff10ee24fcda69f5539b53afcaba6d

UPDATE ON MANAFORT'S INDICTMENT -- "Judge considers conditions to release Manafort and Gates," by Josh Gerstein: "The judge handling the case against former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort suggested at a hearing Monday that prosecutors from special counsel Robert Mueller's office are being too lenient in negotiating a bail package with Manafort and his associate, Rick Gates. U.S. District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson said her inclination was to impose stricter conditions on Manafort and Gates than the prosecution team was proposing, but she said she might acquiesce after she gets details of the agreement defense lawyers are trying to strike with Mueller's team."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b88692b03867751dc33ea79dd457fd0805eedbb0be048798bb9451319fdd2f4c438e0d784c908d398a

ON THE RADAR -- "Trump readies executive order to unravel Obamacare's individual mandate," by the Washington Examiner's Kimberly Leonard: "The Trump administration has prepared an executive order that would unravel Obamacare's individual mandate, but has put it on hold to see whether it might be included in the Republican tax bill instead, a GOP senator told the Washington Examiner.

"According to the senator, an executive order is sitting with the Office of Management and Budget waiting for approval. President Trump decided to delay the executive order after Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., pushed for the inclusion of the individual mandate repeal in the tax bill, and has been supportive of its inclusion in statements he has made on Twitter. When asked about the order's status, a White House official declined to comment, and said the administration does not get ahead of potential executive orders until they're ready to be announced." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b89909f476a9eee1bb3d367278e6b0a709715859295685d044409549e63e34f911154eb70f8947027e

HMM ... -- "Trump coal backer wins big under Perry's power plan," by Darius Dixon and Eric Wolff: "A proposal by Energy Secretary Rick Perry to alter the nation's electricity markets would provide a windfall for a small group of companies -- most strikingly one owned by coal magnate Bob Murray, a prominent backer of President Donald Trump.

"Perry's plan would force consumers to subsidize ailing coal-fired and nuclear power plants with billions of dollars, in what he calls an effort to ensure that the nation's power network can withstand threats like terrorist attacks or severe weather. But his narrowly written proposal would mostly affect plants in a stretch of the Midwest and Northeast where Murray's mining company, Murray Energy, is the predominant supplier, according to a POLITICO analysis of Energy Department data. The company and its PAC together sent $200,000 to pro-Trump election efforts last year, while Bob Murray threw an invitation-only West Virginia fundraiser for Trump in 2016."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b819110ba21cb7af0e195e3bfb4156f99b3d26b36d1ba3cb0fd6571e9b7cba0f139837f95a8b136fa1

COOL FEATURE -- Slate has created an interactive timeline of all of NYT's push alerts since last year's election and published a series of essays reflecting on today's news environment. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b80c590d5f57be60d11ec822b1f52ddb94dc53f07859e24cbb582622afd39724d5df62fc55e7d39d0f

TERRY BRANSTAD PROFILE -- "As Trump and Xi Jinping meet in China, an Iowan is the bridge between them," by the Des Moines Register's Kyle Munson: "The Iowan who has the ear of the leaders of two world superpowers stepped up to a lectern inside a crowded living room of his sumptuous new home -- half a world away from where he had spent most of his 70 years. On a late September evening, Terry Branstad, Iowa's longest-serving governor and the United States' newest ambassador to China, addressed an elite cocktail-party crowd of more than 100 Chinese dignitaries, expats and visiting Americans.

"'Welcome to the governor's ... no,' he interrupted himself with a chuckle and shake of his head. 'I kind of fell back into my old habits there. ... Welcome to the ambassador's residence in Beijing, China.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8e64513fe53a352056a43c784ae67954fb7d24275bc698b0117bd4fdfcf15e201d52e066f203bf89c

****** A message from Morgan Stanley: It's hard to think of an industry that won't be touched in some way by technological disruption over the next decade. Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Growth Team shares the big ideas and emerging trends that may have far-reaching implications for economies, industries, social behavior-and investors. Read more. ******

OUCH -- "McCain treated for minor injury to Achilles tendon," by Elana Schor: "'Senator McCain was treated at Walter Reed Medical Center over the weekend for a minor tear in his right Achilles tendon, as well as for other normal and non-life-threatening side effects of cancer therapy,' the senator's office said in a statement. 'Senator McCain has returned to work in the Senate and will be wearing a walking boot until his injured tendon is fully healed.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b83f41137e4fbda2549a6a3cb1208862190fd17d03bc4d6ffa8c7aad9b6156bf2a3bb4cffe915523f7

AUTOPSY REPORT -- NYT's NATE COHN -- "After a Tough 2016, Many Pollsters Haven't Changed Anything": "A year after polls broadly overestimated Hillary Clinton's strength in the decisive Rust Belt battleground states, top pollsters and analysts across the survey industry have reached a broad near-consensus on many of the causes of error in the 2016 presidential election. But so far, public pollsters -- typically run by news outlets and colleges -- have not changed much about their approach. Few if any of the public pollsters that conducted surveys ahead of Tuesday's elections for governor in Virginia and New Jersey appear to have adopted significant methodological changes intended to better
represent the rural, less-educated white voters who pollsters believe were underrepresented in pre-election surveys.

"On the other hand, private pollsters -- typically employed by campaigns and parties -- have already begun to make changes. This is especially true among Democrats stunned by Donald J. Trump's upset victory, but Republicans are making changes as well. The adjustments are already playing out in Virginia, where pollsters will have one of their first chances to put postelection shifts to the test." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b881d1d334857df5bf66da2d5933150e1851a8cf2ad035aa2d66e0f34580a0a8be19c62ae16cefef0b

TODAY'S BEYOND THE BELTWAY -- States brace for tomorrow's elections -- Florida lawmaker launches counteroffensive after sexual harassment claims http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8e8a1e6d7d7fbdc543e1738e7154b26bafa50ddf0945b8bafb0bb9961e53fe9ff8d8ef4dfbfde6cb8

-- "Anthony Weiner reports for prison stint for sexting conviction," by WABC's staff: "Disgraced former New York Congressman Anthony Weiner arrived Monday morning at Federal Medical Center-Devens in Ayer, Massachusetts, to begin serving his 21-month sentence for sending lewd material to a minor." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8434eee24c2436200cbde2b655917b0c65498ea841c20114457819210abb793972d0d59d7351ec0f5

NOW VERIFIED ON TWITTER -- @Comey: "Here's my new handle. Glad to be part of the Twitterverse. Grateful to Reinhold for the cover these last few years."

TRANSITIONS -- Jon Adame joined Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) and the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology as legislative counsel. He is an alum of NCSL, the RNC, NRSC, and former Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.). ... Jennifer Myers has joined the American Hotel and Lodging Association as senior director of communications for government affairs. She previously led policy communications for the National Corn Growers Association.

-- OBAMA ALUMNI -- VICTORIA ESSER is rejoining the Glover Park Group and will be a managing director in the firm's strategic communications division. She previously was assistant secretary of public affairs at Treasury and deputy assistant secretary for digital strategy at State.

OUT AND ABOUT -- Sasha Borowsky, chief of staff at No Labels, and Eli Kaplan, founder and CEO at Rising Tide Interactive, were feted Saturday night at an engagement party in the garden of Nancy Jacobson and Mark Penn's Georgetown home. Nancy introduced the bipartisan couple (this is her ninth successful marriage fix-up) at the No Labels Problem Solver Convention in 2015. Pic of the couple http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8edc16bb4e68663b295c9f67caf68f1d6c7271314549c930cdc4f0b67ed0c0ced0c329b461736fb0a SPOTTED: Jeannie and Bill Knapp, A.B. Stoddard, Bill Galston, Clarine Nardi Riddle, Emily DiBari, Jim Walsh, Gavrie Kullman, Adam Wyden, Dennis Craig II, Rykia Dorsey.

-- The Picnic Theatre Company staged its second sold-out performance of Agatha Christie's "The Unexpected Guest" to benefit Dumbarton House museum on Friday. It was directed by Steve Rochlin with cast Christina Sevilla, Emily Lenzner, Nova Daly, Daniela McInerney, Antonio Olivo, Charles Kovatch, Kevin Rooney, Robert Gerber and Chris Fowler. Pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8262cbc09adc439f63813223ec5045e8950de93b68167cf05d3c682b19e7f3c513addfbbb51f4d4a6 SPOTTED: Rodell Mollineau, Sheena Arora, Dan Ronayne, Tom Williams, Jay Newton-Small, Tom Toles, Gretchen Toles, Kasper Zeuthen, Jen Jose, Sanna Kangasharju, David Van Ongevalle, Mieke Eoyang, Evelyn Farkas.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS - OBAMA ALUMNI -- Jessica Singleton, former chief digital officer for the City of New York and alum of Obama for America and Human Rights Campaign, married Ben Lazarus, alum of OFA and Scott Stringer. Jessica is now a second-year MBA student at Harvard and Ben is a 3L at NYU Law. The couple got married at a farm in Asheville, N.C., and met in 2013 in Manhattan. Wedding pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8db0c01b3d1aa502825ff21a876e305cc56522ad221535e8de868e225a6987e8051eff5853cd116d1 ... NYT announcement http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8b8a3e3e5b6ffed170c47304b074f838b22458cd642aa4d41b8543ade5936e9fbc7a7ce5d7eb6d9f4

SPOTTED: Matt Mittenthal, Allison Zelman, Max Lesko, Emmy Bengtson, Alexis Confer, Christopher Nulty, Dani Lever, Devora Kaye, Rebecca Kirszner Katz, James Katz, Wiley Norvell, Glen Weiner, Alex Levy, Sam Brill, Peter Schottenfels, Rowan Morris and Britta Towle, Elaine Braithwaite, Sarah Fitzrandolph Brown, Meredith Carden and Micah Fergenson, Mike Schmidt, Kate Harloe, Astead Hearndon.

-- Zack Clark, director of government relations for the National Farmers Union and alum of former Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.), on Saturday married Heather Roth, product marketing manager at Opower, in a ceremony on the roof of the Hall of States on North Capitol. "Heather's sister revealed that early in their relationship, Zack wowed Heather by putting towels in the dryer so they could be warm when she got out of the shower. They met at Hamilton's 7 years ago." Pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8786724a3a1cc9b3c5843e2be9c90d1f7f9d6efd002c0da75897243594a40a860bfa5cba87be3ddc8

-- SPOTTED: Alumni of Lieberman's Senate office including Shoshana Krilow, Joe Harris, Danielle Vogel, Scott Overland, Alex Ford and Jeremy and Holly Kirkpatrick, as well as Ken Vogel, Alex Ford, Derek Torrey and Kevin McDonald.

ENGAGED -- TJ Tatum, senior associate at communications firm Finsbury and former former deputy director of comms for House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, proposed to Kathleen Iannone, an associate at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. "We met while we were both at Boston College. I proposed on Saturday while on a day hike of Bull Hill, overlooking the Hudson River." Instapic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8e3699c1d724f07c78c6966fc405fc308988c0d3ed914675f3ea8d9779ab9812ca15f976d9723e407

-- Gabriela Meléndez-Olivera, political communications manager at the ACLU and an SKDK and WaPo alum, got engaged to Luis Lopez, who works at Ankura Consulting and used to work on the Hill. Instapic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b824be8538c9750b0e3ec97c88210a3b76cabf4099d92cc42c74a05e316b4e1ab509d10d1ea622f262

WELCOME TO THE WORLD - OBAMA ALUMNI - Carl Woog, lead for policy communications at WhatsApp and an NSC and DoD alum, and Lauren Thomson, a high school teacher, on Saturday welcomed Sky Thomson Woog. "Named in honor of Lauren's dad Stu, who we lost earlier this year. He was a distinguished military pilot, lifetime explorer, and a deep inspiration to us. Family is doing great in San Francisco!" Pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3c997ad84702f6b8646b479b2ae0b85d1af233d76963a38ee34a68bf564e53570705a19233c79cfe0e28507f3014f940

****** A message from Morgan Stanley: Interested in the long-term investment opportunities that might arise from disruption? Morgan Stanley Investment Management Disruptive Change Researcher Stan Delaney shares five emerging trends that investors should watch over the next decade. "Disruptive change is so pervasive that our team looks at all of our investments through a disruptive lens," says DeLaney "Our disruptive analysis effort is really about supporting the Growth Team's strategy of long-term investing, finding companies with a sustainable competitive advantage, and making sure that we aren't holding companies that could be left behind." These trends-spanning autonomous driving,
machine learning, augmented reality and more-could have far-reaching implications for economies, industries and social behavior. Read more. ******

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