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11/16/2017 07:55 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

TRUMP VISITS CAPITOL HILL - President Donald Trump, fresh off a 12-day stint in Asia, will be on Capitol Hill today to meet with House Republicans ahead of their big vote on tax reform. House GOP leaders are confident they already have the votes, likely with a little cushion to spare, and aren't counting on the president to do any last-minute arm twisting. Trump will meet with the GOP conference at 11:30 a.m. with a vote on final passage of the Republican tax plan at 1:30 p.m.

Always be closing: GOP leaders were working some conservatives on Wednesday, HuffPost reports, after lawmakers expressed last-minute concerns about overselling how much people would save on their tax returns. But Matt Fuller's unofficial whip list still only has about 10 hard "no" votes - lawmakers from New York and New Jersey who don't like the state and local deduction changes - and five other members who are leaning against the bill. Republicans can lose up to 22 votes on their side (assuming all Democrats oppose the bill). See the list: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30adb4d1f2cf4af245fd22e17325be4c1e8815c63c332e941fec09c224541e78276f62557354089de71fb6e500349fd3

TROUBLE IN THE WATER? Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson said Wednesday he opposes the Senate's tax plan, becoming the first Republican to do so. Johnson told the Wall Street Journal he finds the bill's process "offensive" and thinks the proposal unfairly benefits corporations over other businesses. "If they can pass it without me, let them," Johnson told Siobhan Hughes. Johnson, who received a call from Trump last night, later said he hoped the final bill would be something he could support.

Whip count: Sens. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), among others, have expressed their own concerns about the tax bill but haven't yet come out against the plan. Remember, Republicans can only lose two votes and still pass their proposal if all Democrats vote against the bill. The Senate Finance Committee will wrap up work on the bill either today or tomorrow with plans to bring it to the Senate floor the week after Thanksgiving.

Related: Seung Min and Jen Haberkorn have the behind-the-scenes story on how Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) convinced GOP leaders to include a repeal of Obamacare's individual mandate in their tax bill. "Hesitant would be kind," Cotton said of leadership's initial reaction to his pitch. Don't miss it: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30adb4d1f2cf4af2cb31ecc935602b4eed1814cc7d368c5e84d5c5c2a4f3aca5823f0bae7c580e7a74a79a11dc6f0dd2

"BRING IT ON," IT'S NOT JUST A MOVIE - Republican leaders are considering a drastic plan to try to save the Alabama Senate seat as Roy Moore refuses to step aside. "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his top advisers are discussing the legal feasibility of asking appointed Sen. Luther Strange to resign from his seat in order to trigger a new special election," Alex Isenstadt and Eliana Johnson report. McConnell aides say it's unclear if such a move is even possible. But GOP leaders are desperate to oust Moore as the accusations against him pile up. Another woman accused Moore of misconduct Wednesday in an AL.com story and other women provided detailed accounts to the Washington Post
of how he pursued teenage girls at the mall while in his 30s, including calling one at her high school to ask her out.

McConnell's team had been asking Attorney General Jeff Sessions to consider running as a write-in candidate. But Sessions wants to stay as AG, despite being on the outs with Trump, and internal GOP polling showed his candidacy might do little more than split the GOP vote and give Democrat Doug Jones a victory. Moore is trailing Jones by 12 points in a poll conducted by the NRSC, the Senate GOP's campaign arm, earlier this week. Alex and Eliana with much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30adb4d1f2cf4af2c43cba096634d0df8690a5ea3620e545f34a379b65a33928e0e3d53d06dab54d0264edec46898931

Moore fires back: Moore's attorney held a press conference Wednesday questioning one of the accuser's accounts - including evidence that Moore signed her high school yearbook - before promptly refusing to take any questions from reporters. "Dear Mitch McConnell, Bring. It. On," Moore later tweeted. Chris Hansen, executive director of the NRSC, quickly shot back: "Bring It On is a movie about high school cheerleaders."

Republicans are still waiting on Trump to weigh in on the allegations. Trump ignored questions from reporters about Moore after a speech on trade Wednesday. "There are no good options," one White House official told the Washington Post. Sean Sullivan, Philip Rucker and David Weigel with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30adb4d1f2cf4af2eb0541754640d8d217e5d462753541ae48d0b981c11cbedad9edefd0e7eafd34db6e30106f6597ad

Sen. Doug Jones: Nearly unthinkable just a week ago, Jones could become the first Democratic senator elected from the state in more than two decades. Jones' three-prong plan: win over skeptical Republicans who are alienated by Moore; invigorate the Democratic base, especially African-Americans, who make up over a quarter of registered voters; and keep the national Democratic Party as far out of the picture as possible, while still relying on its resources. Gabriel Debenedetti and Daniel Strauss explain: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30adb4d1f2cf4af27aa62b214bb9cf82502ec0b13f66cd29055b0f94d2c53300bed3951ca443e646e733987ca9caf504

IT'S TAX PARTY THURSDAY Y'ALL. Welcome to Nov. 16, and thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill.

WEDNESDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The ABC News video of Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) running away from questions about Roy Moore was the winner.

A DECEMBER TO REMEMBER - Top aides to the Big Four congressional leaders - McConnell, Speaker Paul Ryan, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer - have been engaged in tightly held discussions about a year-end funding deal for weeks but are still unable to reach an agreement on the topline numbers. "Pelosi told colleagues Wednesday she and Schumer have both rejected the latest GOP positions during the leadership-only discussions," Rachael and Bres report.

Democratic leaders think Ryan and McConnell are stalling, not wanting to make any deal that would alienate conservatives ahead of key votes on tax reform. Democrats, whose votes are needed for any must-pass deal, are open to a stopgap to keep negotiations going past the current Dec. 8 deadline but are reluctant to support any short-term bill that goes into next year. Rachael and Bres with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30adb4d1f2cf4af24c3a5e79619b029ba6f56d5f430ac575f81cd88690da10d67d7d7a2af721401b9069dc9fc2f19f51

SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE? Democrats are bullish about their chances of taking back the House next year, particularly after sweeping victories last week in Virginia and elsewhere up and down the ballot. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told reporters Wednesday he's giving Democrats a "60 percent chance" of winning the majority in 2018, noting he thinks that their odds will only go up. "Even in the last cycle I would not have said [that]," Hoyer said, pointing to big gains on Election Day and historic early fundraising totals for Democratic challengers as reasons for his optimism.

Hoyer also dismissed criticism that he and other Democratic leaders are playing favorites when they donate to specific candidates in a crowded primary field. "You need to have people win the primaries who can win the generals," Hoyer said. "We want to try to get the strongest general election candidate. That is not necessarily always the strongest primary candidate."

Related: "Republican strategists are warning that some of the party's veteran House incumbents aren't adequately preparing for the 2018 election, putting the GOP majority at risk," Elena Schneider reports. "There are certainly incumbent members out there who need to work harder and raise more money if they want to win," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2a726045bc9107cc0aa9cda723f5b80d80aa5e19f8edf265fde655abb5c66c1c21f592be5295a00c98222eebb66f0bc4

SENATORS REACH DEAL ON BACKGROUND CHECKS - In the wake of horrific mass shootings in Las Vegas and Texas, a bipartisan group of senators has reached agreement on a bill to strengthen the federal background check database. Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) are leading the push, Seung Min reports. Their bill, which hasn't been released yet, would encourage states to send more information to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. The bill would also make sure federal agencies, like the Air Force in the case of the Texas shooting, follow through on requirements to send information to the database. SMK with more:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2a726045bc9107cc2457a4ce0fbac206ed5defc8aa77d26ecd34946ed232a5f0760266e64d8d7603b60ea54e4f0ba838

PROGRESSIVES GET WOKE ON TAXES - The GOP's plan to repeal Obamacare's individual mandate as part of its tax code rewrite may be just the thing to light a fire under the progressive base, liberal activists said Wednesday. "This is a major tactical error," Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told Elana. "Yet it remains unclear whether the left can recapture the fury that ultimately helped tank Republicans' effort to repeal Obamacare," she reports. "Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) acknowledged in an interview that it is 'discouraging' and 'disturbing' to see the full impact of the GOP tax bill 'not even getting attention, with Roy Moore and all the things on TV right now.'" More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2a726045bc9107cc5d03b932fd21884eeb002f9c0b3ec045bcce0de1eade3fdd50d41e4aa8bfaa806dd34cf40112434b

MENENDEZ WATCH - The jury in Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-N.J.) federal bribery trial resumes deliberations today after closing out Wednesday without reaching a verdict. The jury gave no clue yesterday as to whether it was still deadlocked, as it had informed the judge at the start of the week. Matt Friedman with the Wednesday wrap up: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2a726045bc9107cce4b7f515c55c445558434af02c7659cb52116a2dc7b1608fdcdc70987912e2561cbe19b99512cfa9


DEPARTURE LOUNGE - Julia Krieger starts today as communications director for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's (D-N.D.) 2018 campaign. She was working as deputy communications director in Heitkamp's Capitol Hill office.

TODAY IN CONGRESS - The House meets at 9 a.m. with first and last votes - including a vote on final passage of the GOP's tax bill - at 1:30 p.m. The Senate gavels in at 9:30 a.m. with roll call votes related to nominations at 12 p.m.

AROUND THE HILL - New York GOP Reps. Dan Donovan, Peter King, Lee Zeldin, and John Faso hold a press conference on their opposition to the GOP tax plan at 9:45 a.m. in HVC Studio B. Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) and members of the CHC hold a press conference on veterans facing deportation at 10:30 a.m. in HVC Studio A.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Reps. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) and Bobby Scott (D-Va.) hold a press conference on pensions at 10:45 a.m. in the Rayburn Room (H-207).

Reps. Nydia Velazquez (D-N.Y.), Jose Serrano (D-N.Y.), Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) and Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) hold a press conference on Puerto Rico at 11 a.m. in 2360 Rayburn.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) will reintroduce a bill addressing crime prosecution and the military chain-of-command at 11 a.m. in SVC-215. Sens. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) hold a press conference at 11:30 a.m. on the Dream Act and the Temporary Protected Status program in S-115.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) will hold a press conference on the GOP's tax plan and potential impacts to national security at 12:30 p.m. in the Senate radio/TV gallery.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) holds her weekly press conference at 12:15 p.m. in HVC Studio A. Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) holds a press conference on the farm bill at 1 p.m. in the House triangle.

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and other House Republicans hold a press conference after the tax reform vote around 1:30 p.m. in the Rayburn Room (H-207).

WEDNESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Frederick Graefe was first to guess that Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) resigned in 2011, one day before he was scheduled to testify under oath before the Senate Ethics Committee about having an affair with the wife of a top staffer and his attempts to cover up the scandal. The panel later said it had enough evidence to expel Ensign had he not resigned.

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Frederick with today's question: A close relative of this current governor also served in politics, both in his state and on Capitol Hill. Who is this person and what two positions did he hold? The first person to answer correctly gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: hcaygle@politico.com.

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