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Poll: Joe Sestak overtakes Pat ToomeyNew U.S. Senate poll shows Democrat
with three-point lead.

By Colby Itkowitz, CALL WASHINGTON BUREAU

7:58 PM PDT, October 19, 2010
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WASHINGTON -- Joe Sestak has pulled ahead of Pat Toomey after trailing for
months in their closely watched Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, an
independent poll confirms.

Democrat Sestak now leads Republican Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent with 15
percent undecided, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows.

The numbers are the first from a nonpartisan source to confirm the race has
tightened two weeks before Election Day. Democratic-leaning Public Policy
Polling on Tuesday put Sestak up by 1 percentage point. And two internal
Democratic Party polls last week showed the Pennsylvania contest closing.

It wouldn't be the first time Sestak surged with the finish line in sight.
In two previous elections, when political pundits had counted him out,
Sestak came from behind with just weeks to go and emerged victorious.

In May, the same tracking poll was the first to show Sestak catching and
eventually surpassing U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary. A
tracking poll shows who's ahead and by how much each day until the election.

Many experts credited the Delaware County congressman's victory over Specter
to an electorate unhappy with the 30-year incumbent senator, not because
they were overly impressed with the younger, upstart Navy admiral.

But maybe Sestak's political prowess is vastly underestimated. He's an
unconventional campaigner and less-than-stellar orator, but he plays the
part of tenacious underdog well.

"He's off the charts in terms of his energy and work ethic," Muhlenberg
pollster Chris Borick said. "There is something to be said for sheer
tenacity."

Republicans are expected to make gains across the country this mid-term
election by capitalizing on nationwide frustration with the slow pace of the
economy. Toomey's message of smaller government and fewer taxes seems to be
resonating even in Pennsylvania, which tilts Democratic.

It's hard to explain Sestak's latest apparent comeback. There's a sense that
faithful Democrats are paying closer attention in the closing weeks as
President Barack Obama crisscrosses the country making the case for keeping
Democrats in charge.

And Sestak's campaign appears adept at using an opponent's own words against
him in political TV ads. On air now is a commercial showing Toomey, a former
Lehigh Valley congressman, saying his voting record is "hard to distinguish
from Rick Santorum's."

"That Santorum ad is pretty potent," Borick said. "Only a few years ago
Pennsylvanians overwhelmingly tossed out Santorum for being too extreme."

April Mellody, Sestak's spokeswoman, said voters are beginning to see that
Toomey is as well.

"Congressman Toomey is completely out of touch with this state. He wants to
privatize Social Security, eliminate corporate taxes and ship jobs
overseas," Mellody said. "Joe understands Pennsylvania and knows that people
here want practical solutions. Our message is getting out, and we are
certain that the voters will know what's at stake on Nov. 2."

The Toomey campaign, which has enjoyed consistent good news from every poll
until this week, is sticking with the message that has seemed to work.

"The polls are all over the place, with most of them showing a good-sized
lead for Pat Toomey," said Nachama Soloveichik, Toomey's spokeswoman. "But
the bottom line for Pennsylvania voters is a clear choice between more of
the same reckless Washington spending and high unemployment with Joe Sestak,
or a change in direction toward fiscal discipline and job growth with Pat
Toomey."

Sestak and Toomey debate for the first time this general election Wednesday
night in Philadelphia and again in Pittsburgh on Friday. The goal for both,
Borick said, is to drive home their most powerful messages in the final
days.

"Sestak needs to ride the momentum of trying to paint Toomey outside the
mainstream and hit that message in as many ways and in as many forums as
possible," Borick said. "Toomey has to show he's in line with Pennsylvania
on the main issues, like keeping the budget down and lowering taxes."

*colby.itkowitz@mcall.com*

*202-824-8216*

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Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.co