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Dear R. Hunter,

The biggest surprise of 2014 has certainly been the sustained drop in
oil prices. My friend and colleague Dr. Albert Bressand is one of the
world's greatest energy analysts, and he was not at all surprised.
Speaking about the current consensus,

The price story seems both spectacular and routinely
familiar. At the start of 2015, the consensus scenario goes like this:
with oil prices at just half their peak value of June 2014 and with the
forward curve in mild contango (namely with futures markets expecting a
mere $5 rise in prices by summer 2015), expectations are that prices
will remain depressed well into 2015 before a reduction in the
production of US unconventional oil and a pick-up in world demand
combine to reduce overcapacity and today's rapidly increasing
inventories. After a year or two of low prices, the pendulum, it is
assumed, will swing back to sustained high prices, at the latest by the
end of the decade, as major frontier-oil projects—possibly worth as much
as one trillion dollars--are postponed or cancelled by financially
stretched companies. Oil-price volatility will be the name of the game
once again … Yet, convincing as this consensual scenario may sound, it
ignores important potential developments on the productivity and
geopolitical side. The cognitive map that can help make sense of the
deeper transformation in energy markets needs to be grounded in
political economy and technology, not just economics.

I am sure that you will enjoy reading Albert Bressand's
unconventional, yet impeccably researched and deeply knowledgeable view
of world energy markets. What he calls "liquid thinking, Burgundy
style". The pdf is attached, but you can also access this report and
others by Dr Bressand at EconVue.com

http://www.econvue.com

.

With all best wishes,

David Hale

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

546 Lincoln Avenue, 2 nd Floor

Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

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