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Gentlemen,
It is strangely quiet in Athens. Every month that I am here there are at least a few demonstrations, but not one in the past 10 days. People are very calm.
I think it is safe to say that Syriza will win the election and I suspect it will be by a fairly wide margin. The only question is how close they will get to the 150 votes necessary to form its own government; as opposed to some kind of coalition.
The one group at risk in the election are the banks. They have been run with a cronies system and the managements of at least three of the banks will be shown the door. The bank stocks drop to new lows every day, and I expect three of the banks to be liquidated in some fashion in the near future. Those same three banks are seeking emergency funds from the EU to prepare for the upcoming liquidity crisis.
Ironically, the sickest bank, Attica, may in fact come out of the elections as the favorite of Syriza.
A change in government will not effect Trainose or the prospects for the business. The Chinese will finish the port sometime next year and the number of containers received will go from 800,000 to 6.5 million in the next three years. The logistics business in Greece is going to explode and no change in government will stop it. I remain extremely bullish on Greece. Besides trains, commercial real estate and financial services are main focuses of our activities.
David