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Dear Friends & Colleagues:

I am updating my distribution list and would like to know if you wish to
continue receiving emails from my firm, David Hale Global Economics,
Inc. I would also like to take this opportunity to give you my current
contact information and tell you about our latest research. Our book
"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"

http://ci26.actonsoftware.com/acton/ct/3037/s-000f-1208/Bct/l-0443/l-0443:30a/ct4_1/1

is published by Yale University Press. "What's Next?" is a collection
of essays from economists around the world who have unique viewpoints
and expertise, and challenges many commonly held assumptions.

On Friday, all eyes will be on Chairman Ben Bernanke as central bankers
and leaders from around the world look to Jackson Hole for policy
guidance. As a macroeconomist for the past 35 years, I have found that
making sense of the current global situation is more challenging than at
any time in my career. The number and interdependency of variables,
especially those linked to worldwide political deadlock, make
forecasting enormously difficult. Moreover, due to strong prevailing
winds for globalization, contagion risks which begin with local economic
policy failures cannot be minimized, as we have witnessed over the last
five years.

My overall conclusion is that the most likely scenario for 2013 is not
worldwide economic disaster, but a prolonged period of slower growth
almost everywhere. I have been and remain broadly optimistic for a
variety of reasons, including downward pressures on energy prices,
enormous advances in the developing world, and upside surprises due to
innovation. As I visit startup firms around the world, I am impressed
with what is being done in medical technology, energy, communications,
and natural resources. Capital seeking higher returns is abundant, and
some of this money will be invested in these promising firms, lifting
local economies. Uncertainties about taxes and entitlements will
continue to depress new job formation, but at some point after this
political cycle, business will be rewarded with the predictability it
craves. Importantly, the US housing bust has bottomed out.

I am including a link to my August report, "Can the US Economy Regain
Momentum?"

http://ci26.actonsoftware.com/acton/ct/3037/s-000f-1208/Bct/l-0443/l-0443:30a/ct6_1/1

Key conclusions include:

Recent data predict that housing will be a significant source of growth
in the US economy going forward

The euro area recession will soon include Germany and France, where
signs of contraction are already evident

Higher wages and eco-subsidies for cars have boosted Japanese consumer
spending

The Chinese housing market is showing signs of recovery after a long
period of decline

South African growth continues to disappoint, and the ASEAN nations are
feeling the effect of the global slowdown

I would like to continue to stay in touch, and welcome your comments and
feedback. Our website

http://ci26.actonsoftware.com/acton/ct/3037/s-000f-1208/Bct/l-0443/l-0443:30a/ct5_1/1

will be updated in the next few weeks and will then contain almost
everything I have written going back to the 80's as well as videos of my
recent speeches. When I return from Australia, I will report on recent
developments in global commodity markets. I hope that you can become a
regular subscriber to our research.


With all best wishes,

David Hale


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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

David Hale, Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

546 Lincoln Avenue, 2 nd Floor

Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

847-386-6009 (tel)

847-386-6011 (fax)

davidhale@davidhaleweb.com

davidhaleweb.com

whatsnextbook.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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