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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

This Memorial Day weekend we received the sad news that President
Carter's foreign policy advisor and strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski
passed away. His voice and intellect are irreplaceable in Washington
today. We send our heartfelt condolences to his nephew Nicholas Benes

https://econvue.com/experts/nicholas-benes

, a member of our EconVue family. Nick has shared his personal tribute

https://econvue.com/pulse/tribute-econvue-expert-nicholas-benes-zbigniew-brzezinski

. I agree with him that it is very well worth your time to read
Brzezinski's bracingly prescient 2012 interview in the Financial Times :
https://www.ft.com/content/4d03c5f6-3ac1-11e1-a756-00144feabdc0

https://www.ft.com/content/4d03c5f6-3ac1-11e1-a756-00144feabdc0

Mr. Brzezinski's last tweet on May 4th was: "Sophisticated US leadership
is the sine qua non of a stable world order. However, we lack the former
while the latter is getting worse." Next week, I will be attending the
Chicago Federal Reserve's annual Automotive Outlook Symposium

https://www.chicagofed.org/events/2017/automotive-outlook-symposium

in Detroit. Our next newsletter will be a special report on the auto
sector, a fascinating mix of smokestack industry and leading edge high
technology.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

World

Don't be alarmed by the end of QE

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2017/may/dont-be-alarmed-by-the-end-of-qe/

Adam Glapiński, 5/24/2017 OMIFF

The governor of the Bank of Poland says it is time to end quantitative
easing and unconventional monetary policy, and that is nothing to lose
sleep over.

World Bank's star economist Paul Romer is sidelined in war over words

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-25/war-over-words-erupts-as-world-bank-star-economist-is-sidelined

Andrew Mayeda 5/25/2017 Bloomberg

Herding 600 economists--not easy. See Romer's blog on this subject Romer
Slaughters Kittens

https://paulromer.net/category/blog/

which points to the need for reform in World Bank research and economics
in general.

The disappearing computer

https://www.recode.net/2017/5/25/15689094/mossberg-final-column

Walt Mossberg 5/25/2017 Recode

Ambient computing is the future says Walter Mossberg in his last column.
He envisioned the way computers would affect our lives today decades
ago.

U.S.

Re-estimating the president's budget with reasonable economic
assumptions

http://www.crfb.org/papers/re-estimating-presidents-budget-reasonable-economic-assumptions#

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget 5/23/2017

Who believes in US GDP growth @3%?

Beware shorting impeachments

https://macromon.wordpress.com/2017/05/18/beware-shorting-impeachments/

Global Macro Monitor 5/18/2017

But bad things can happen when the White House is distracted, raising
global macro risks.

Sooner or later, the stock market will catch up to our volatile
president

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sooner-or-later-the-stock-market-will-catch-up-to-our-volatile-president-trump/2017/05/24/e5e87bba-3fe1-11e7-adba-394ee67a7582_story.html?tid=ss_tw-bottom&utm_term=.aa47d6531eaa

Sebastian Mallaby 5/24/2017 Washington Post

From Sebastian Mallaby, Greenspan 's biographer.

Karen Petrou on kicking the Fed habit

http://www.fedfin.com/blog/2399-karen-petrou-on-kicking-the-fed-habit

Federal Financial Analytics 5/26/2017

The Fed's afraid to take its enormous hand off the market's steering
wheel.

From main street to wall street: economic growth, monetary policy, and
the Federal Reserve

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvSW12T7GJ4&feature=youtu.be

Loretta Mester, 5/8/2017 Chicago Council on Global Affairs (Video)

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester talks about returning
to conventional monetary policy. My question to her about labor mobility
led me to some new research on millennials below.

Millennials

Parental proximity and the earnings consequences of job loss

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2017-economic-commentaries/ec-201703-parental-proximity-and-the-earnings-consequences-of-job-loss.aspx

Patrick Coate 2/9/2017 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Labor mobility slows: Young adults who lose their jobs but live near
parents recover faster than those who don't.

David Schleicher on local and state regulation and declining mobility

https://soundcloud.com/macro-musings/schleicher

Macro Musings 5/24/2017 (Podcast)

Lack of labor mobility, especially for post-crisis, security-conscious
millennials has long term implications for US economics and politics.
Schleicher, both a law professor and economist at Yale, is one of the
bright new policy stars and someone to watch.

The gig economy workforce will double in four years

https://www.recode.net/2017/5/25/15690106/gig-on-demand-economy-workers-doubling-uber

Rani Molla 5/25/2027 Recode

The gig economy workforce (not measured by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics) will double in four years, more than either the finance or
construction sectors.

China

China may have 90 million fewer people than claimed (that's twice
Spain's population)

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2095311/china-population-much-smaller-you-think-researchers-say

Wendy Wu 5/23/2017 South China Morning Post

Moody's downgrade puts China between a rock and a hard place

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Moody-s-downgrade-puts-China-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place?n_cid=NARAN012

Joyce Ho 5/24/2017 Nikkei Asian Review

Slowing growth and rising debt.

Alibaba bets on do-it-yourself globalization

https://www.ft.com/content/8f5e79ba-30ab-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

Louise Lucas 5/22/2017 Financial Times

China's electronic Silk Road.

The canal that will sink S'pore's maritime-trade dominance is one step
closer to fruition

http://mothership.sg/2015/05/the-canal-that-will-sink-spores-maritime-trade-dominance-is-one-step-closer-to-fruition/

Jonathan Lim 5/18/2017 Mothership.sg

http://mothership.sg/

In a blow to Singapore, China and Thailand sign a deal to build a new
canal.

Why most older Chinese women do not work

https://andrewbatson.com/2017/05/26/why-most-older-chinese-women-do-not-work/

Andrew Batson's Blog 5/26/2017

Chinese women retire early for grandma duty: raising the retirement age
to 60 would increase the employment rate by 28% for ages 50-59.

Poor pay, rising violence leads to acute nursing shortage

http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-05-26/101095245.html?cxg=web&Sfrom=twitter

Song Shiqing and Huang Liyao 5/26/2017 Caixin

New research into foot-binding has modern-day implications

http://route.overnewser.com/economywrld/?url=http://mashable.com/2017/05/26/bound-to-end-economics/&utm_source=twitter-tools&utm_medium=EconomyWrld&utm_campaign=article

Yi Shu Ng 5/26/2027 Mashable

Economics — not sex — was behind this cruel Chinese practice, according
to new research. It made young women less mobile and more willing to sit
for long periods of work in textiles and other industries.

The fat tech dragon: baseline trends in China's innovation drive

https://www.csis.org/events/fat-tech-dragon-baseline-trends-chinas-innovation-drive

CSIS 5/24/2017 (Video)

Following a presentation of the report's key findings, the panelists
discuss the report as well as the broader issues regarding China's
innovation drive.

EconVue Research

Is China's One Belt One Road a Dangerous Idea

https://econvue.com/panels/chinas-one-belt-one-road-dangerous-idea

EconVue experts Marsha Vande Berg

https://econvue.com/experts/marsha-vande-berg

, Saul Eslake

https://econvue.com/experts/saul-eslake

and Karim Pakravan

https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

respond to commentary by Australian defense expert Paul Dibb. You can
register

https://econvue.com/user/register?destination=node/1243%23comment-form

and join the discussion here.

http://www.econvue.com/panels/chinas-one-belt-one-road-dangerous-idea

Data Round-Up: Durable Orders Stumble But Equipment Spending on Track
for Decent 17Q2

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-durable-orders-stumble-equipment-spending-track-decent-17q2

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

(Subscriber content)

Durable goods orders were lackluster in April. Core shipments were not
great but are on track for a moderate gain in 17Q2, which suggests
another decent gain for equipment spending. With a boost from the now
slightly better inventory-to-sales mix in 17Q1 GDP, FMI continues to
expect real GDP growth to post a solid rebound, +3% or so, this quarter.
Ecuador Under President Moreno: Rethinking the U.S. Relationship with
Latin America's Left

https://econvue.com/pulse/ecuador-under-president-moreno-rethinking-us-relationship-latin-americas-left

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

There are many within the Ecuadoran left who will use the election of
President Moreno to continue their work against the influence of the
U.S. and western institutions. In that complex struggle, there are no
guarantees about where the Moreno government will end up. Yet it is in
the strategic interest of the U.S. to bet on the intellect and decency
of President Moreno to actively seek a new path with Ecuador and the
Latin American left.

How to Raise Incomes and Delay the Next Recession

https://econvue.com/pulse/how-raise-incomes-and-delay-next-recession

Rob Shapiro

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

For President Trump, this plan has three simple parts consistent with
his positions: Increase public infrastructure investments, lower the
cost of business investments, and make Wall Street pay more of its fair
share. If he can cut this deal, nearly everybody will win – but if he
can't, no one will lose more than he will.

With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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http://yalebooks.wordpress.com/?s=lyric+Hughes+Hale

"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
http://whatsnextbook.com/

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