EMAIL DETAILS
SUBJECT:
Iraq after the Liberation of Mosul: Turning a Fragile Unity into Stable Government
PRI: NORMAL
FROM:
K
ken@ndi.org
DATE:
2017-05-18 20:42:29
MSG_ID:
<CAEnKDRj2UQCwr3mu=cWADHx1Q9U3Tw_tiS-CLn_H0f1YU1Tnvg@mail.gmail.com>
RECIPIENTS:
TO:
K
ken@ndi.org
BCC:
H
hbiden@rosemontseneca.com
CONTENT:
TEXT: YES |
HTML: YES
PROCESSED
I thought you would be interested in the results of NDI’s latest nationwide survey of the attitudes of Iraqi citizens. From February to March 2017, NDI and Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research conducted public opinion research in Iraq, capturing citizens’ perspectives on security, the economy, and other key political trends. The research includes a 2,000 person national survey with oversamples in Mosul, and the provinces of Anbar, and Salahaddin, including internally displaced persons (IDPs) and citizens who lived under the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This project was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy and the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office. The attached powerpoint presentation summarizes the findings of the poll and provides contrast with data from previous NDI polls. Some notable findings: 1. The research reveals a renewed sense of optimism brought on by the military success against ISIS. Government leaders and institutions need to deliver on citizens’ high expectations for the future. Recent gains in liberating territories from ISIS have led many, particularly in the Sunni dominated provinces in the west of Iraq, to believe that the fight against ISIS has helped to unify the country. At the same time, this leads to high expectations that ISIS will be completely ousted very soon and that life in the west will improve dramatically. 2. For the first time since at least 2010, security has been supplanted by economic concerns and corruption as the most important issues to citizens. Increasing feelings of security have led to optimism about the future but also to increased expectations of government. 3. Dramatic changes in perceptions about the Iraqi Army. In a remarkable shift from previous polls, the army is credited for the (still incomplete) liberation from ISIS and receives strong job approval, except in Kurdistan. The Iraqi Army is seen as representing all Iraqis--a marked departure from recent years when Sunnis and Kurds saw it as representing only the Shia population. This strong support of the Army also drives a perception that compulsory military service should be introduced, with majority of respondents in the west feeling this way. 4. Views on Popular Mobilization Units (Hash’d Al Shaabi) improve, especially in the west. While thankful to the Shia dominated PMUs for their role in routing ISIS, a plurality of Iraqis want PMUs dissolved and integrated into the Army. While a large majority of Kurds want the PMUs to completely disband, one in three respondents in the Shia South would prefer PMUs to be given more power as a separate military force. There is mixed support for PMUs’ involvement in politics. 5. Iraq post-ISIS, winning the peace. A majority of Iraqis outside Kurdistan want Ninewa province to remain as is, rather than being granted greater autonomy. Similarly, a majority of Iraqis want the Army rather than PMUs to protect liberated areas. This attitude is largely driven by the west and Kurds fearing violence from PMUs after liberation. Fifty nine percent of respondents in Mosul expressed preference for a military governor as opposed to their current or former civilian governors. Decentralization of political power to provinces has limited support, especially in the west, as citizens would prefer a strong central government to create stability. 6. A majority of Iraqis view Prime Minister Abadi favorably. After a steep drop to 33 percent in January 2016, Prime Minister Haider al Abadi bounces back with a 59 percent favorability rating, driven by increases in the South and Baghdad, but particularly by a 54 percent jump in popularity in the Sunni west. Most Iraqis want to continue in the direction he is taking the country -- with the exception of citizens in Kurdistan, but a majority of Iraqis--except in the west--do not necessarily support Abadi for a second term. Abadi is the third most popular leader in the country after Shia leaders Hadi al Ameri and Muqtada Al-Sadr. They are closely trailed by former defense minister and Sunni leader, Khalid al Obeidi. Among target voters who approve of Abadi and the direction he is taking the country, there would be more support if he ran on a different electoral list than his current party, Da’wa. Only one in three in Baghdad and the south support Abadi for a second term. This attitude is shaped by a perception that he has failed to deliver on governmental reforms. With best regards, Ken Kenneth Wollack President National Democratic Institute 455 Massachusetts Ave., NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20001 202-728-5500 (Tel) 888-875-2887 (Fax) email: ken@ndi.org website: www.ndi.or
METADATA:
THREAD:
INDEX:
AdhhoyY13YadJL9cRUaEwsHPXEs+tg==