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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

It is always a happy occasion for me when Chicago wins another Nobel
Prize. Richard Thaler's award represents continued recognition for
behavioral economics. Always prescient EconVue expert Richard Katz

https://econvue.com/experts/richard-katz

interviewed Thaler ten years ago, and we revisit his excellent article
for Toyo Keizai below. Now mainstream, there is not universal acclaim
for behavioral economics. I recommend Kevin Bryan's blog on this
subject, and especially the comments that follow. This week could be a
watershed in Chinese history, although the inner workings of the 19 th
National Party Congress are what I call an unknowable unknown, to be
followed on by President Trump's visit to China in less than a month.
Key issues to watch: continued sweeping changes

https://theconversation.com/expect-a-shakeup-of-chinas-military-elite-at-the-19th-party-congress-84060

in the People's Liberation Army, in the shadow of the continuing North
Korean crisis, and de-privatization of business under the Chinese
Communist Party. For an excellent overview of China's economic
challenges and the state of their reform process, I've included a video
of a panel I attended at the Asia Society in New York recently.

In Washington, I listened to former Fed governor Daniel Tarullo, himself
a non-economist, talk about the possibility of a non-economist taking
the helm at the Fed, as well as inflation expectations. Unconventional
insight on this topic comes from Econvue expert Robert Pringle

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-pringle

in London regarding the failure of central banks to foresee the
financial crisis ten years ago. He says that inflation targeting is a
defacto global monetary standard. Finally, as an EconVue reader, we
kindly ask you to participate in a short survey as part of a study at
the Lake Forest Graduate School of Management regarding economic news.
Your input would be appreciated. Here is a link:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/8GHDBPL

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/8GHDBPL

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

Interviewing a Nobel Prize Winner

https://econvue.com/pulse/interviewing-nobel-prize-winner

Richard Katz

https://econvue.com/experts/richard-katz

One of the great pleasures of my career is that I've gotten to interview
several Nobel Prize economists, Here's the beginning of an interview I
conducted in 2007 with this year's winner, Richard Thaler. He was the
inventor, along with psychologist Daniel Kahnemann, of "behavioral
economics." This school recognizes that people are not Vulcan-like
utility-maximizing rationalists, but human beings--a heresy in orthodox
economics. At the time, Obama was looking into his views for economic
advice. 10-Year Retrospective: Lessons of the Financial Crisis 1, 2,
& 3

https://econvue.com/pulse/10-year-retrospective-lesson-1

Robert Pringle

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-pringle

The lead-up to the crisis was marked by the near-universal adoption of
inflation targeting. This became sacrosanct as the framework for
monetary policy (implicit in the case of the Federal Reserve). It became
the nearest we had to a global monetary standard.

Perhaps it is time for a new standard, rather than watching central
banks around the world aim for and miss 2% inflation over and over
again.

Blame the Economy for Widening Inequality – And Washington for Doing
Little about It

https://econvue.com/pulse/blame-economy-widening-inequality-%E2%80%93-and-washington-doing-little-about-it

Robert Shapiro

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

Ask the right questions, and the income data reveal a great deal about
how this inequality took hold over the last 40 years. It is a given that
the American economy and politics both changed dramatically over this
period. But how did each of those forces affect the distribution of
incomes? FMI Weekly Data Preview: October 16-20

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/fmi-weekly-data-preview-october-16-20

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

The week began on a reasonable note with the NY Fed' Empire
manufacturing survey this morning. The headline index rose +6 points to
30 in October, not far from the cycle-high. Washington Should Take Note
of Chinese Advancement in Brazil

https://econvue.com/pulse/washington-should-take-note-chinese-advancement-brazil

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

While partly related to Brazil's size, it is of note that, largely
unnoticed in Washington D.C., Brazil is one of the countries in Latin
America where the most significant major Chinese commercial advances
have occurred during the past year.

Washington's Weakening Hand In Iran

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/washingtons-weakening-hand-in-iran_us_59dcbe63e4b0208970cf96ec

Karim Pakravan

https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

and Kaveh Mirani HuffPost 10/10/2017 Collaboration: Blockchain

https://econvue.com/pulse/collaboration-blockchain

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

The implications in the wake of so many recent data breaches are self
evident, and I believe all of these technologies will come together
eventually. It will take time, money, and collaboration among private
and, especially in areas like real estate, public entities. Given the
outlook for government finances in the United States and the
always-present forces to maintain current revenues from the technology
status quo, it will be a long effort requiring considerable leadership.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Nobel In addition to Richard Katz's interview above, a range of
commentary on this year's award of the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economics
in memory of Alfred Nobel. Richard Thaler is a Controversial Nobel Prize
Winner – But a Deserving One

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/11/richard-thaler-nobel-prize-winner-behavioural-economics?CMP=share_btn_tw

Robert Shiller 10/11/2017 The Guardian Hayek: For Humility and Against a
Nobel Prize in Economics

http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2016/10/hayek-for-humility-and-against-nobel.html

Timothy Taylor 10/10/2017 Conservable Economist

The 2017 Nobel: Richard Thaler

https://afinetheorem.wordpress.com/2017/10/09/the-2017-nobel-richard-thaler/

Kevin Bryan Blog 10/09/17 Univ of Toronto Rotman School of Management
The number of behavioral anomalies at the level of the market which
persist and are relevant in the aggregate do not strike me as large,
while the number of investors and policymakers who make dreadful
decisions because they believe markets are driven by behavioral
sentiments is large indeed!

Federal Reserve Fed Economists' Stakes in Forecasting Firm Spur an
Internal Probe

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/fed-economists-stakes-in-forecasting-firm-spur-an-internal-probe-1507645967

Katy Burne 10/10/2017 WSJ What were they thinking? Kevin Warsh,
Candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, Is Not Even an Economist

http://www.weeklystandard.com/kevin-warsh-candidate-for-federal-reserve-chair-is-not-even-an-economist/article/2009986

Ike Brannon 10/6/2017 Weekly Standard Daniel Tarullo: From law professor
to Federal Reserve Governor

https://www.brookings.edu/events/daniel-tarullo-from-law-professor-to-federal-reserve-governor/

Brookings Institute 10/3/2017 Video Inflation expectations hard to
measure. Why not a greater focus on how overall debt levels,
historically high everywhere, change models? World Population growth
rate

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rates

Our World in Data 2017

This is why global growth has slowed and in spite of temporary rebounds
will continue to do so as overall population peaks by 2100 Labour
repression & the Indo-Japanese divergence

https://pseudoerasmus.com/2017/10/02/ijd/

Pseudoerasmus 10/2/2017

Terrific economic history from @pseudoerasmus

https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus

comparing India & Japan's industrialization and the relative strength of
labor in each country. Is Europe Prepared for the Next Crisis?

https://piie.com/events/europe-prepared-next-crisis

Klaus Regling, Jeromin Zettelmeyer , and Adam S. Posen 10/11/17 PIIE and
European Stability Mechanism (Video) and prepared remarks Not
surprisingly, the head of the European Stability Mechanism is
optimistic. However, the list of tasks to complete integration is
daunting. Debt CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker

https://www.cfr.org/cfr-sovereign-risk-tracker#!/?cid=soc-twitter-in-sovereign_risk_tracker-050517

Council on Foreign Relations 5/1/2017 Which countries are most likely to
suffer a debt crisis? Track sovereign risk with @BennSteil

https://twitter.com/BennSteil

's interactive map 5 facts about government debt around the world

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/09/19/5-facts-about-government-debt-around-the-world/

Abby Budiman & Drew Desilver 9/19/17 Pew Research The U.S. Can No Longer
Afford Deficit-Increasing Tax Cuts

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-can-no-longer-afford-deficit-increasing-tax-cuts-1506889725

Jason Furman 10/2/2017 WSJ Common sense. China Infographic: How the CCP
Rules, a Guide to China's Leaders of Party and State

http://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/infographic-how-the-ccp-rules-a-guide-to-chinas-leaders-of-party-and-state/

Yuanzhuo Wang & James Evans 10/11/2017 Fairbank Center for Chinese
Studies As leaders meet in Beijing for the 19th Party Congress, a visual
guide to understanding China's elite politics. 1.34 million officials
have been punished for graft since 2013, Chinese watchdog says

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/10/08/1-point-34-million-officials-have-been-punished-for-graft-since-2013-chinese-watchdog-says.html

CNBC 10/8/2017

Astonishing number when one realizes that this is more than the entire
population of San Diego.

Beijing Pushes for a Direct Hand in China's Big Tech Firms

https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-pushes-for-a-direct-hand-in-chinas-big-tech-firms-1507758314

Li Yuan 10/11/2017 WSJ Will "red shares" increase moral hazard, and how
will markets react? China May Be Running Out of Time To Escape the
Middle-Income Trap

http://asiasociety.org/new-york/china-may-be-running-out-time-escape-middle-income-trap

Eric Fish 10/3/2017 Asia Society

A panel chaired by Kevin Rudd, former PM of Australia, including Evan
Medeiros, Asia Director of the NSC under Obama. "I don't think that Xi
Jinping necessarily is a reformer. I think he is a modernizer"—and that
distinction is critical.

1949: The Year That Set the Course of Chinese-American Relations

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/books/review/kevin-peraino-a-force-so-swift-mao-truman.html?referer=https://t.co/GZbEeQWioK?amp=1

Orville Schell 10/4/2017 NYT

Masterful review of A FORCE SO SWIFT: Mao, Truman and the Birth of
Modern China, 1949 By Kevin Peraino

War Inside North Korea, and Feeling the Drums of War

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01e3-1710/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct36_1/1?sid=TV2%3AemQXCeMeM

Nicholas Kristof 10/5/2017 NYT Sobering, frightening, enlightening.
Hypersonic Missile Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of a New Class
of Weapons

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2137.html?adbsc=social_20171007_1836761&adbid=916788481753473024&adbpl=tw&adbpr=22545453

Richard H. Speier, George Nacouzi, Carrie Lee and Richard M.
Moore10/7/2017 Rand Corp.

We have more to worry about than the spread of nuclear weapons over the
next decade. The proliferation of hypersonic missiles would give nations
an incentive to become trigger-happy.

With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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