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On Fri, Apr 15, 2011 at 1:37 PM, Hunter Biden <hbiden@rosemontseneca.com> wrote:
> Thanks- I'll buy you a Rolex.
>
> R. Hunter Biden
> Rosemont Seneca Partners
> 202-333-1880
>
> On Apr 15, 2011, at 12:25 PM, Michael Muldoon <mmuldoon@rosemontseneca.com> wrote:
>
>> Do you normally just make edits or track changes?
>>
>> On Fri, Apr 15, 2011 at 1:16 PM, Hunter Biden <hbiden@rosemontseneca.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> R. Hunter Biden
>>> Rosemont Seneca Partners
>>> 202-333-1880
>>> Begin forwarded message:
>>>
>>> From: "Naomi Biden" <NBiden12@sidwell.edu>
>>> Date: April 15, 2011 11:58:18 AM CDT
>>> To: "Hunter Biden" <hbiden@rosemontseneca.com>
>>> Subject: Research Paper
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Watergate's effect on the 1974 Congressional Elections
>>>
>>> Naomi Biden
>>>
>>> "In their minds, their scandal will always and forever be bigger than anyone
>>> else's; and never again will living be quite so important."[1]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn1>
>>>
>>> The quote above refers to the absolute sense of responsibility
>>> the newly elected senators and representatives felt to the nation. There is
>>> no denying that Watergate and the exposed corruption and abuse of power in
>>> the Nixon administration shook America's confidence in democracy. As the
>>> scandal was publicized American faith in the men and women that were
>>> representing and supposedly protecting their interest in congress was
>>> dwindling. Although there is sufficient evidence that even prior to
>>> Watergate being exposed there was a growing distrust in the federal
>>> government, as the scandal progressed and the American public became
>>> increasingly aware whatever doubts they were having were only magnified. The
>>> most significant effects of Watergate were therefore short-term. Watergate
>>> had both a direct and indirect effect on the Democratic sweep of the 1974
>>> congressional elections, in that although Watergate was not the only
>>> determining factor in the outcome of the elections, its effect on almost of
>>> the factors that contributed to voter turn out and party affiliation is
>>> undeniable. The 4 democratic senators and 49 Democratic representatives
>>> elected to congress in this year have been especially keen about their
>>> responsibility to be honest and recognize the laws and regulations put in
>>> place so that there is not an abuse in power on the scale of that of the
>>> Nixon administration. Often referred to as the 'Watergate Class' the
>>> senators and representatives elected in the year 1974 that continue to serve
>>> today because they were often elected on promises that they would limit
>>> federal corruption have not forgotten the dangers of an executive office
>>> with no reigns.
>>>
>>> The break in at the Democratic National Committee offices in the
>>> Watergate Hotel, was a only a small part of the enormous abuse of power on
>>> the behalf of the Nixon administration during his 5 and half years in
>>> office. When the break in was first reported there was almost no speculation
>>> that any high-ranking government officials could have been involved, let
>>> alone the President himself. As reporters, most well known being Bob
>>> Woodward and Carl Bernstein of the Washington Post, uncovered more and more
>>> complex connections between the break in and the government it became clear
>>> that the corruption was on a scale that know one could have imagined. The
>>> Nixon administration had undoubtedly violated the trust of their political
>>> constituents and the entire Nation. The amount of people familiar with what
>>> happened and what the Watergate scandal really was sky rocketed from
>>> fifty-two percent of Americans in 1972 to ninety-eight percent in 1973[2]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn2>
>>> . Although as Nixon resigned he claimed that he was not a crook and that
>>> anything he did while in office he believed to be in the "best interest of
>>> the nation", people no longer trusted President Nixon[3]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn3>
>>> . The highly public trials and nationally covered scandal brought corruption
>>> in the federal government to the forefront of voters concerns.
>>>
>>> The economic state of the nation in 1974 and public discontent
>>> with their economic status can't be ignored when considering the reasons
>>> that contributed to the outcome of both the house and senate elections. The
>>> Yom Kippur war caused a brief but serious oil price shock. The result of
>>> that was an inflation level of about 11 percent and an unemployment rate
>>> close to 5 percent. Inflation became a forefront concern of the American
>>> people. A poll taken prior to elections that year gathered that 50.2 percent
>>> of Americans believed that inflation was the most significant economic
>>> issue. The decline in disposable income was the largest decline since 1946,
>>> when there was a shift in majority from democrats to republicans comparable
>>> to that of republicans to democrats in 1974[4]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn4>
>>> . Therefore the most common debates occurring between candidates running for
>>> election or re-election around the country focused on two main issues:
>>> corruption and the economy. Even the Republican National Committee chairman
>>> at the time, Mary Louise Smith admitted, "Watergate and the economy have
>>> combined to influence voters". What she did not say but was inferred is that
>>> these to issues were primarily influencing voters to not vote for republican
>>> candidates, particularly conservative ones running for re-election.
>>> Republican leaders also downplayed Watergate and lack of trust in the
>>> government as a leading issue. A poll taken prior to the election asking
>>> "What do you think will be the most important national issues in the coming
>>> congressional elections" reported that 71 percent of Republican chairmen
>>> cited inflation and high cost of living, 65 percent named fuel shortages and
>>> the energy crises, and only 32 percent mentioned Watergate and honesty in
>>> government[5]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn5>
>>> . In contrast a survey by the Republican National Committee by Market
>>> Opinion Research of Detroit showed that 73 percent of the voters did in fact
>>> think that Watergate was the number one issue[6]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn6>
>>> . However as obvious as the correlation between economic discontent and
>>> election outcome may seem surveys and polls have time and time again failed
>>> to find any connection between the two[7]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn7>
>>> . However numbers and data are not nearly as powerful as having the benefit
>>> of looking over our shoulder as opposed to straining our eyes in an attempt
>>> to look ahead. With that in mind, conventional wisdom seems to toward
>>> believing that the economy lead to even more bitterness on the behalf of
>>> voters towards Nixon and the Nixon administration which made voting
>>> Republican in the 1974 elections even less appealing.
>>>
>>> A less obvious but equally as important question to ask is
>>> whether the Democratic candidates running for election in the year following
>>> Nixon's resignation were simply stronger running mates than those the
>>> Republican's serving faced in 1972 or if the Watergate scandal allowed for a
>>> stronger class of Democratic candidates. A correlation between a party with
>>> a worse outlook, to weak candidates and therefore fewer funds has time and
>>> time again been drawn clearly[8]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn8>
>>> . Nixon's administration cast a dark cloud over the heads of the Republican
>>> Party. A notable number of Republican retirements can be attributed to
>>> recognition of probable defeat due to this 'cloud' and furthermore an
>>> awareness that Republican's will remain the minority party and therefore not
>>> have the opportunity to become committee chairmen[9]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn9>
>>> . Age and an improved pension may also be factors, but that does not explain
>>> why the Republican retirement rate was twice that of the Democrat's[10]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn10>
>>> . Although people were selective in whom they punished for the corruption in
>>> the early 1970's, conservative or loyal republicans did not have an easy
>>> time facing their democratic opponent's in 1974[11]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn11>
>>> . The party's being in trouble was no secret and it could be argued that for
>>> that reason stronger democrats faced weaker republican causing the upturn in
>>> republican dominancy in congress. If this were to be true, Watergate would
>>> indirectly be the reason for the comparative lack of power behind Republican
>>> Party incumbents.
>>>
>>> Voter turnout at the 1974 congressional elections was low, while
>>> it had been steadily decreasing over the years prior Watergate was a factor
>>> in the lack of enthusiasm in electing officials. The youth vote in
>>> particular was dwindling as the publics respect in the 'system' reached an
>>> all time low. The scandal and corruption undermined voter respect for
>>> anybody participating in government affairs. 62 percent of the electorate
>>> did not vote during the midterm elections. Many of who claim it was not a
>>> disinterest in politics but rather a legitimate form of protest. Furthermore
>>> voters were becoming increasingly cynical about the democratic process
>>> claiming, "One vote doesn't make any difference"[12]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn12>
>>> . Cynical and frustrated voters are just so because of economic despair and
>>> a widely criticized dishonest government.
>>>
>>> Watergate contributed to the elevated number of 'switch voters'
>>> or voters who are affiliated with one party but vote for another, recorded
>>> in the 1974 midterm elections. Furthermore independents that voted in those
>>> elections primarily voted democratically. Nixon made running as a democrat
>>> an advantage in that he momentarily harmed or hurt his own party's
>>> reputation. The majority of 'switchers' found themselves partial to
>>> Democratic candidates and platforms because of both economic and Watergate
>>> grievances directed towards Republican candidates.[13]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn13>
>>> Often times votes swinging to the degree in which the halls of congress are
>>> overturned occurs during midterm elections as it did in 1946 1958 1966 and
>>> than 1974[14]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn14>
>>> . That's not to say that it was not because of Watergate, rather that
>>> midterm elections made it even more possible. It was because in changes at
>>> the margin by voters.
>>>
>>> Another tool useful in determining the Watergate scandals effect
>>> on the congressional midterm elections in 1974 is the campaign strategies
>>> used by the candidates that won and the dilemmas the candidates that lost
>>> faced. When Democrats won a difficult victory in Grand Rapid Michigan it
>>> became evident to reporters and candidates alike, the failures of the Nixon
>>> Administration was the "most powerful current in American Politics"[15]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn15>
>>> . Republicans did not have difficult speaking their disapproval of the
>>> Watergate Scandal but rather of their President. While a growing majority of
>>> the population was discontent with Richard Nixon the person and the Nixon
>>> administration as a whole, as Wisconsin Republican representative William A
>>> Steiger best put it "Republican's can't be flatly anti Nixon and survive".
>>> [16]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn16>
>>> The delicacy with which Republicans faced their predicament was one that
>>> could be easily seen through by voters. As Republican candidates resentment
>>> towards the president was evident, while their fear of speaking out against
>>> him remained. The dilemma Republicans faced in 1974 was one with no clear
>>> solution, it was "precarious to be associated" with the President, but
>>> "suicidal to speak against him."[17]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn17>
>>> Democratic opponents used their knowledge of the difficult situation
>>> Republican's were in to their advantage. Even Vice President Ford admitted
>>> that in private talks with the President "He recognized, as I did, that it
>>> could be the way the Democrats skillfully used the issue" the issue being
>>> Watergate.[18]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn18>
>>> In fact in the opinion of the President and Vice President alike, the
>>> Democrats exploited Watergate, blowing it entirely out of proportion to win
>>> votes. Blown out of proportions or not, in hindsight not, the Democrats did
>>> win votes because of Watergate.[19]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn19>
>>>
>>>
>>> The newly elected senators and representatives in the year 1974
>>> are called the Watergate babies for more reasons than one. They were
>>> referred to as 'Babies' not only because they were new to the Senate and
>>> House but also because they were so young. Six of them were under thirty and
>>> as a group the brought the average age of House Members down to under fifty
>>> for the first time since World War II[20]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn20>
>>> . A vast amount of the winning candidates were substantially younger than
>>> the officials they ran against. The new congressman and senators elected
>>> were like any other new group of electees fresh and excited to demand change
>>> from their older more experienced constituents. What made them unique
>>> however was their large size, which gave them the unique ability to actually
>>> instate the changes. As Rep. John LaFalce put it "Smaller classes can have
>>> the same missionary zeal, but not have the same impact we had by our force
>>> of numbers"[21]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn21>
>>> . As soon as they came to office long time committee chairmen were replaced
>>> and their voices were heard, their missions, make Washington more
>>> accountable to the ordinary, tax-paying citizens of the United States[22]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn22>
>>> . They were able to overthrow old party power partly because the majority of
>>> them owed little to party bosses. Remembers Sam M. Gibbons (D-Fla.) ``we
>>> didn't expect a lot of the Watergate class to win, we just put them on the
>>> ballot to have a Democratic name there.''[23]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn23>
>>> They largely fought against war and corruption and pushed environmental and
>>> economic reform.
>>>
>>> Although some argue that like so many public officials before and after them
>>> they were jaded by money and dirty politics their work while in office
>>> proves quite the opposite. They are the biggest proof that Watergate
>>> influenced who ran in the 1974 elections and why. To an extent they have
>>> all kept the careful balance of power and accountability and transparency in
>>> all government affairs close to heart as they served their terms.
>>>
>>> Even though President Richard Nixon's name was not on the ballot
>>> during the 1974-midterm elections he was on the minds of the voters[24]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn24>
>>> . Republicans were often equated with Nixon and in turn with Watergate and
>>> all of the corruption that is associated with the break in. The Democrats
>>> that year won a 2/3 majority in the house and a 3/5 majority in the
>>> senate[25]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn25>
>>> . There is no question that the voters sent a clear message: the current
>>> administration was not acceptable. They wanted change. They wanted economic
>>> security and an honest government. There lack of faith in the Republican
>>> Party to do so stems from Watergate and the corruption and scandal it
>>> represented and continues to represent. The democratic sweep brought a
>>> younger, reformist, eager, class of freshman senators and congressman alike.
>>> In a nation wide poll at the time Watergate was ranked the worst scandal in
>>> American history by 57 percent of the population[26]
>>> <http://webmail.sidwell.edu/exchange/NBiden12/Inbox/Drafts/RE:-12.EML/1_text.htm#_ftn26>
>>> . To say it had little or no effect on the 1974 elections would be
>>> ludicrous.
>>>
>>>
>>> ________________________________
>>>
>>> From: Hunter Biden [mailto:hbiden@rosemontseneca.com]
>>> Sent: Mon 4/11/2011 4:05 PM
>>> To: Naomi Biden
>>> Subject:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Mike Muldoon
>> Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
>> 1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
>> Suite 705
>> Washington, DC 20007
>> (202) 333-1880
>> mmuldoon@rosemontseneca.com
>


--
Mike Muldoon
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
mmuldoon@rosemontseneca.com