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11/14/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro), JAMES ARKIN (jarkin@politico.com; @JamesArkin)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
2020 ALREADY! - A week removed from the 2018 midterms, Democrats have started laying the groundwork for challenging President Donald Trump in 2020. Guy Cecil, chairman of Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, previewed potential tactics.

"The presidential election in 2020 is going to be a competitive election and there's nothing about 2018 that suggests we can take it for granted," Cecil told reporters Tuesday.

If the election were held today, Priorities predicts it would be razor thin: Democrats with 269 electoral college votes, Trump with 259, and Wisconsin up for grabs. Cecil put the potential swing states for 2020 into three buckets: the first are core toss-ups, including Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The second he considered potential expansion states: Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. The third are states to watch: Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia, which lean Democratic, and Iowa, Ohio and Texas, which lean Republican.

The group also hopes to expand the Democratic voter base. Priorities has found that more than half of voters nationwide, and nearly half of Trump/Democratic voters (those who backed Trump in 2016 and then backed a Democrat in the midterms), had concerns about his temperament. But among Trump/Democratic voters in the Midwest, more than half thought the president's policies are in steps with their priorities. Cecil said Democrats should focus on pocketbook issues, specifically health care - the PAC's data showed that an overwhelming majority said the cost of health care was getting worse, and it showed that most voters believed cost of living outpaced the GOP tax cut.

"Our intention is not to simply focus on temperament or language or his behavior, and to make sure we are taking Trump on right where it hurts for him, and that to make sure we're making the case that when it comes to regular people, when it comes to most Americans, Trump's policies and his approach to office is harmful," Cecil said.

Good Wednesday morning. A thanks to James (jarkin@politico.com; @JamesArkin) for his dispatch from Priorities' postmortem. As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2020 election: 720
IN THE TRENCHES
CALIFORNIA CALL - Democrat Josh Harder defeated GOP Rep. Jeff Denham in CA-10. The AP called the race Tuesday night, bumping Democrats up to a 229-199 majority. Seven seats remain undecided.

- Two uncalled races in California got even tighter. In CA-45, Democrat Katie Porter took the lead over GOP Rep. Mimi Walters. Porter is now about 260 votes ahead of Walters. And in CA-39, Democrat Gil Cisneros further closed in on Republican Young Kim, trailing by just 711 votes.

- Democrat Ben McAdams' lead over GOP Rep. Mia Love has narrowed in UT-04, now sitting at just over 1,300 votes.

LAWSUIT IN MAINE - GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin has filed suit over the state's ranked-voting system. Poliquin, who leads Democrat Jared Golden in ME-02 but has not crossed the 50 percent threshold, is suing the state secretary of state, calling the system unconstitutional. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "The lawsuit, filed on Tuesday, seeks a preliminary injunction against the ongoing ranked-choice count until a judge can weigh in on the system. ... Poliquin and several other plaintiffs argued that Maine's ranked-choice voting violated the Constitution and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, additionally calling the system 'costly,' 'confusing' and '[depriving] voters of genuinely informed
choice.'" Jon Breed, Golden's campaign manager, sharply criticized the lawsuit in a statement. "If Rep. Poliquin's concerns were anything other than in self interest, he should have filed this lawsuit before votes were cast," Breed said.

- District Judge Lance E. Walker will hold a 9 a.m. hearing today after Poliquin and his fellow plaintiffs asked for a restraining order preventing Maine's secretary of state from continuing to tabulate ranked-choice votes.

THE ARIZONA SEAT - Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) is sending mixed signals on if he decided when he'll step down. He told CNN's Manu Raju that he made up his mind (but didn't tell Raju when) and later told our own Elana Schor that he'll talk to newly re-elected Republican Gov. Doug Ducey about the timing and that he hasn't yet decided. He promoted GOP Rep. Martha McSally, who just conceded the 2018 Senate race, as a potential replacement to both reporters. "First of all, I would recommend Martha McSally for a lot of different things, including U.S. Senate, because I supported her candidacy," Kyl said to Elana. "But no, I've not made any decisions about when I'm going to step down."

FLORIDA FIGHT - If you were looking for a quick end to the Florida recounts, keep looking. "A Leon County Circuit Court judge has ordered the state to extend its recount deadline by five days to Nov. 20 because Palm Beach County does not have enough ballot recount machines," POLITICO Florida's Arek Sarkissian reported.

- Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he is hopeful that Sen. Bill Nelson will prevail after the recount. "If this is done fair and square, we believe Sen. Nelson has an excellent chance, a much greater than half chance of being reelected," Schumer said at a rare joint press conference with Nelson, per POLITICO's Burgess Everett.

IN THE PAST - Club for Growth, which did not back Trump in 2016, is considering throwing its weight behind the president in 2020. "We're looking seriously at getting involved in [2020] to support Trump. My board has not made that call, but it's starting that discussion of what we should be doing," Club for Growth president David McIntosh told the Washington Examiner's David M. Drucker.

THE COMMITTEE BATTLE - House Republicans are holding their leadership elections today, and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) looks poised to be the next leader of the NRCC. The Hill's Scott Wong notes that many other potential contenders opted to not run.

WINING AND DINING - House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has instituted a full-court press to regain the gavel. POLITICO's John Bresnahan, Rachael Bade and Kyle Cheney: "On Tuesday afternoon, Pelosi held a reception for all Democrats at Osteria Morini, an Italian restaurant by the D.C. waterfront. On Wednesday, the members-elect will be introduced to their colleagues at a Democratic Caucus meeting, a lengthy process that will put them on stage with Pelosi. The California Democrat will follow that up with an appearance at the Congressional Black Caucus ... Pelosi will host a private dinner for members-elect and their spouses Wednesday evening in Statuary Hall, right off the House floor.

"Democratic Party luminaries are calling members-elect on Pelosi's behalf as well. Govs. Andrew Cuomo of New York and Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania have weighed in, as have former Vice President Al Gore and former Secretary of State and longtime Democratic Sen. John Kerry, according to Democratic aides. And the California Democrat has been meeting in private - and calling - these lawmakers-to-be, although her aides won't provide a list of who she's sat down with this week."

THE PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro rounded up supporters ahead of a potential 2020 run. POLITICO's Alex Thompson: "Castro and his twin brother, Rep. Joaquin Castro, brought together about 20 of their loyal donors and bundlers in San Antonio to begin to sketch out a national bid, according to one person present and another with direct knowledge of the meeting. The session lasted several hours and invited the potential donors to ask questions about a potential presidential campaign."

- In supremely unsurprising news, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) said he is considering a run for the White House. "I'm focused right now on my reelection, but is it something I'll consider? Absolutely," he said at Yahoo Finance's All Markets Summit. "Now is not the time to do that, we've got elections in the field, I've got a lot of work to do. I've just come off an election. I will do my best over the coming months."

- Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said he'll make up his mind on whether he'll seek the presidency early next year. "Thanksgiving, Christmas and then maybe a few weeks into January - that's when you really gotta sit down, talk to your advisers and say, 'Look, do I have a chance?' I think I know why I would want to run. I think I know what I think this country should do and what I would do. But I just don't know whether it's possible," he told the AP's Steve Peoples.

- Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) is quietly lobbying state lawmakers to change the law to let him keep his Senate seat and run for the White House, if he decides to do it. Willamette Week's Nigel Jaquiss: "Salem sources tell WW Merkley has quietly asked state legislators for a change in Oregon law so he can run for both president and the U.S. Senate in 2020. ... A Merkley spokesman confirms his boss is interested in a change Oregon's law, which currently doesn't allow a candidate to seek two offices simultaneously."

DOWNBALLOT - Common Cause and the North Carolina Democratic Party filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn the state legislative lines. The News & Observer's Lynn Bonner: The lawsuit "will likely eventually be heard in the state Supreme Court. With the election of Anita Earls last week, Democrats will hold a 5-2 advantage on the state's highest court. ... The lawsuit seeks to throw out House and Senate districts the legislature approved in 2017 to comply with a federal court ruling striking down the previous districts as unconstitutional racial gerrymanders."

CODA - STAT OF THE DAY: Fifty-eight percent of House Democrats will be new to the majority and 73 percent of House Republicans will be new to the minority, via Roll Call's Lindsey McPherson.

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