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09/08/2015 08:44AM EDT


By Seung Min Kim (skim@politico.com or @seungminkim)

BOEHNER ON THE WAY OUT? There's been no shortage of ink over the years speculating on whether Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) will retire. But Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan chatted with more than a dozen aides and lawmakers close to the speaker, and it looks something's changed: "Figures in his close-knit circle of allies are starting to privately wonder whether he can survive an all-but-certain floor vote this fall to remain speaker of the House. And, for the first time, many top aides and lawmakers in the House do not believe he will run for another term as House leader in 2017."

--"The Boehner era might be coming to an end, they say. 'That's a personal decision he has to make. I don't know why he would want to, personally," said Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.), when asked whether Boehner would run again ...[C]onsider what he faces this fall: a quixotic but determined fight to defund Planned Parenthood, a potential government shutdown, a deadline to raise the federal debt ceiling or risk default, and a contentious showdown over highway spending. Boehner's aides say they expect a vote to oust him, formally known as a motion to vacate the chair."

--"Boehner allies privately acknowledge the daunting challenge. 'Who knows?" one ally said when asked if Boehner could beat back a coup attempt. 'I don't know. I don't know how you change this dynamic.'" http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=9de8b63caf1dde2244d2e16ca2edbe73f12c06449d361aea079fbbfde67073dd

COUNTDOWN TO SHUTDOWN BEGINS - Capitol Hill is always in crisis mode come September, but this month seems especially dire with the conservative uproar over Planned Parenthood and intensifying threats to use must-pass appropriations to cut off the group's federal funding. Add to that a weighty debate over the administration's nuclear accord with Iran - and let's not even think about the debt limit increase and long-term highway funding that are both lurking on the horizon. I have more: "Congress returns from its long summer vacation Tuesday to an all-out, three-week sprint to avert a government shutdown - and no apparent plan yet to quell the conservative rebellion over Planned Parenthood
that has dramatically increased the odds of a closure."

"The mad dash - just 10 legislative work days to solve the shutdown crisis, in between major votes on the Iran nuclear deal and the first-ever papal address to a joint session of Congress - presents a major test for Republican leaders in both chambers who vowed to end crisis-driven legislating ... Yet to be answered is how far Ted Cruz and other Republicans -- powered by conservative outrage over Planned Parenthood -- are willing to push Congress to the brink of a shutdown in order to defund the women's health organization." http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=9de8b63caf1dde223df8267a34c9e4e02bb70aa4bb7b68597cb20d64df35ea99

--Excerpt from Cruz's letter to McConnell: "In light of recent and horrific revelations that Planned Parenthood is trafficking in fetal tissue and body parts from abortions, we urge you not to schedule or facilitate the consideration of any legislation that authorizes or appropriates federal dollars for Planned Parenthood. The callous view that those in the abortion industry, like Planned Parenthood, take toward women and unborn children is an affront to natural rights and human decency. Whether or not one accepts the view of our President that abortions should be legal and widely available at any stage of pregnancy, we should all be able to unite around our President's stated understanding
of the 'tradition in this town, historically, of not financing abortions as part of government-funded health care.'"

POWELL BACKS IRAN DEAL AS DEBATE KICKS OFF - Though GOP opposition to Obama's Iran deal in Congress is near-unanimous (if not completely so), the controversial nuclear accord is still earning some high-profile support from former Republican lawmakers and admin officials. The latest is former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and Lisa Mascaro writes for the Los Angeles Times that Powell's "statement gives backers of the diplomatic effort a boost from a popular and well respected former general who has come to represent a more moderate wing of the GOP."

More from Lisa: "Explaining the details of the deal on NBC's 'Meet the Press,' Powell said it would slow Iran's march toward developing the components needed to build a nuclear bomb. 'We have stopped this highway race that we were going down, and I think that's very, very important," Powell said. 'Even if we were to kill this deal, which is not going to happen, it would take effect anyway, because all of these other countries that were in it with us are going to move forward.'" http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=9de8b63caf1dde22940f314db280a8beed835582107780f1e86cce05e5b038c5

--A key pick-up for the Obama administration: DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the first Jewish woman elected to Congress from Florida. Alex Leary for the Tampa Bay Times: http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=9de8b63caf1dde2220f4f88d5e2e6b9a43c9be947a7ae38dd2d72bacb62d45a6

--Of course, there's very little suspense on whether Obama's Iran deal survive. He's got enough Democratic votes in the Senate - with a few to spare - to sustain a veto of the resolution of disapproval. Now, the question is whether Democrats can scrounge up three more votes to filibuster the measure altogether, and that's too close to call at this point.

--STILL WAITING ON: Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Maria Cantwell of Washington, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Gary Peters of Michigan, and Ron Wyden of Oregon. WaPo has the latest whip count here: http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=9de8b63caf1dde22879ac9f99f18349a2c6617f0caa595ddc459041f54eaf2ad And Manchin will announce his position on a conference call with reporters later this morning, per West Virginia broadcaster Hoppy Kercheval: http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=9de8b63caf1dde22e4bc6c4c5a4fa052cd6463b8b169e9c78bc639d0f3211612

--If you're still befuddled on how the whole Iran process will work, the AP's Erica Werner's got you covered: http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=9de8b63caf1dde22730ac375c77cc274960585128240ca6ca0011fe0c239f236

TRANSITIONS: Matthew Felling, communications director for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), announced last week that he's leaving the office. In a farewell note to friends and colleagues, he writes: "I will honor all wagers made over the years involving Alaska beer (or spirits) transferring hands - and will track you down and find you if I am owed said beverages. You know who you are."

** A message from the J Street Education Fund: Pro-Israel, Pro-Peace Americans are advocating that Congress support the nuclear agreement as the best way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. American and Israeli security experts agree: The deal makes us safer. Get the facts at irandealfacts.org **

WELCOME BACK, CONGRESS on this Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2015 and you're reading the Huddle, where we're stoked - really! - that lawmakers are back in town. I'm at skim@politico.com and on Twitter at @seungminkim.

My new followers include @KristinPolitico and @ChandlerSmithNV.

TODAY IN CONGRESS - Sobs commemorating the end of the August recess. Also, the House is in at 2 p.m. and will vote at 6:30 p.m. on a handful of suspensions. The Senate is in at 2 p.m. and will begin debating the Iran nuclear deal, with votes on judges at 5:30 p.m.

AROUND THE HILL - House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer holds his pen-and-pad briefing at 1 p.m. at H-144. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) will hold a conference call with reporters following his trip to the Middle East at 1 p.m. The call-in number is (877) 229-8493 and PIN is 114-428. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and other House Democrats will hold a press event on the Iran deal with veterans and Gold Star families right after votes (about 7:15 p.m.) on the East Front steps.
Just off the Hill, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid will deliver a speech on the Iran deal at 10 a.m. at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

RUBIO WEIGHS IN ON SYRIAN REFUGEES - The Florida senator and GOP presidential candidate says he's open to allowing more Syrian refugees into the United States, as long as proper security measures are in place. BuzzFeed writes up Rubio's interview with Boston Herald radio: "We've always been a country that's been willing to accept people who have been displaced, and I would be open to that if it can done in a way that allows us to ensure that among them are not infiltrated - people who were, you know, part of a terrorist organization that are using this crisis." http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=9de8b63caf1dde22029dad7b04d2a88be27f760f6420efb1ac774bdc39f3d43c

-- Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) says the Obama administration could be doing more to admit more Syrian refugees, per BuzzFeed: http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=50c6767b652c95146833938e107ff17646ebe64fba01515d6776feea56fe8d35

GOP PLOTS CLIMATE ATTACK - POLITICO's Andrew Restuccia: "Top Republican lawmakers are planning a wide-ranging offensive - including outreach to foreign officials by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's office - to undermine President Barack Obama's hopes of reaching an international climate change agreement that would cement his environmental legacy. The GOP strategy, emerging after months of quiet discussions, includes sowing doubts about Obama's climate policies at home and abroad, trying to block key environmental regulations in Congress, and challenging the legitimacy of the president's attempts to craft a global agreement without submitting a treaty to the Senate."

--"A top policy aide to McConnell (R-Ky.) has had conversations with a select group of representatives from foreign embassies to make it clear that Republicans intend to fight Obama's climate agenda at every turn, sources familiar with the efforts say. Sources say the aide, Neil Chatterjee, hasn't tried to persuade other countries to oppose a climate deal, though he is informing them about the GOP's options for undercutting it." http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=50c6767b652c95145236d77cc741cdd532d62e0e8d876aee499fdef930da657f

THE DONALD TRUMP OF THE HOUSE? When it comes to personalities, they couldn't be any more different. But Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) - much like Donald Trump, the GOP presidential front-runner - is harnessing the anti-establishment fervor rising on the right, as Mike DeBonis writes from Flat Rock, North Carolina, for WaPo: "The two men, in the different ways, have come to embody the deep disenchantment many Republicans feel about the leaders of their party. 'When we look at the majority of the American people,' Meadows tells the crowd, 'when they believe that their leadership is letting them down, there is only one option out there for us, and that's to change that leadership.'"

--"The roar of applause that follows reflects the same sentiment that has pushed Trump to the front of the Republican presidential field, the same resentment that helped foment a two-week government shutdown two years ago and could well do the same this year ... Trump's anti-establishment message, gleefully mocking not only Democrats but also a hapless Republican establishment, has emboldened congressional conservatives ahead of their return to Washington Tuesday. And as Congress prepares to take crucial votes on the Iran nuclear deal and funding the federal government, Meadows looks like a much bigger deal than he did in July." http://cl.s4.exct.net/?qs=50c6767b652c951474e4fc6d39d69f272f6e72eae977c966381950fadeaf5e14

LAST FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Stewart Boss was the first person to correctly answer that North Carolina is the southern state that has consistently had at least one of its U.S. senators serving in his or her first term. The state's last two multi-term senators to serve together were Sam Ervin and Everett Jordan.

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Stewart has today's question: North Carolina has the second-longest active streak of Democratic U.S. senators who were not re-elected to a second term. Which state has the longest active streak, and what year did it start? The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day's Huddle. E-mail skim@politico.com.

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** A message from the J Street Education Fund: Pro-Israel, Pro-Peace Americans are advocating that Congress support the nuclear agreement because it is the best way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The J Street Education Fund has launched TV and print ads in key states, highlighting American and Israeli national security leaders, generals, and scientists who agree: The deal will block Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and make us stronger and safer. J Street is taking senior Israeli military officials across the country to explain why this deal is the best way to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat. National polls commissioned by J Street have demonstrated strong support
for the agreement among American Jews. It's vital that Members of Congress hear from constituents who have the facts. Get informed at irandealfacts.org. **


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