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By James Hohmann (
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jhohmann@politico.com ) and Alexander Burns (
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POPPING IN IOWA - AMES BEGINS NOW - The Iowa Republican Party will start the countdown clock today for the Aug. 13 Ames straw poll, holding what is effectively a real estate auction among the presidential candidates for space at the event. The party has provided the 2012 campaigns with maps of the straw poll grounds, including the possible spots that candidates can occupy there. The cost of a spot is $15,000 - but not all spots are created equal, with some closer to the main entrance, and the bidding only increases from there. Each campaign is allowed to send two representatives to Iowa GOP headquarters this afternoon for the auction. All the spots will be handed out by the end of the day
and the campaigns will have until June 30 to pay up. One question for the day: Does the Newt Gingrich camp show? Buying a spot ensures a candidate will be on the straw poll ballot, and representatives from the cash-strapped Gingrich campaign have been in touch with the state party to ensure they're part of real estate-related conversations ... (h/t Jonathan Martin)

SNEAK PEEK - MCKEON FOR ROMNEY - Mitt Romney will continue his state-by-state endorsement tour this morning when he picks up support from a group of California lawmakers, including a well-timed boost from House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon. On the list of Golden State endorsers: McKeon, Rep. Mary Bono Mack, state Senate GOP Leader Bob Dutton, state Sens. Tony Strickland, Sharon Runner, Bob Huff, Sam Blakeslee and Mark Wyland; and Assemblymen Paul Cook and Jim Silva. McKeon, a 2008 Romney supporter, stayed focused on Romney's economic credentials in a message of support. "President Obama's policies have failed California and the country. Mitt Romney has a proven record of
job creation in both the private sector and as a governor," McKeon said. And from Bob Dutton: "Mitt Romney knows how the economy works and he has the much-needed experience to lead the country out of the economic downturn."

TODAY IN THE REELEC T - OBAMA TO NYC - From the White House guidance: "In the evening, the President will deliver remarks at a DNC event at the Sheraton New York Hotel and Towers ... Later in the evening, the President will deliver remarks at a DNC event at Daniel ... Later, the President will deliver remarks at a DNC event at the Broadway Theatre." Take note: The timing of Obama's visit could put him in New York just as the state legislature is voting on whether to legalize gay marriage.

THE RNC ATTACKS - 'LEGEN - WAIT FOR IT...' - The Republican National Committee is swatting Obama with a "How I Met Your Mother"-themed attack on his fundraising schedule, which features an event with sit com star Neil Patrick Harris. The committee blasts: "Obama heads to the Big Apple for a round of celebrity-studded fundraisers while Americans are desperate for economic leadership ... While Obama is being serenaded with 'Fabulous, Baby!', Americans will still be dealing with a much-less-than-fabulous economic reality." More:
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As Deval Patrick finds the spotlight, Michele Bachmann plays catch-up in Iowa and Sarah Palin just tries to discharge her civic duty, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

OVERSHADOWING 2012 - "To Obama, Afghan war no longer seems so smart" - POLITICO's Glenn Thrush: "In a primetime address Wednesday night announcing the withdrawal of 33,000 U.S. troops in the next year, Obama trumpeted the fulfillment of two goals first articulated nine years in the same Chicago speech in which he defined George W. Bush's intervention in Iraq - killing Osama bin Laden and denying a safe haven to al Qaeda. One additional achievement unmentioned in the 14-minute address: The role Obama's Afghan surge played in bolstering his national security credentials at a time when Republicans portrayed him as just another weak Democratic president lacking the guts to wage war for a just
cause. But that just cause, in Obama's view, is no longer reason enough for what had essentially become an open-ended U.S. commitment."
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CAMPAIGNS RESPOND - GOP BREAKS RIGHT - That outbreak of dovishness at the New Hampshire presidential debate appears to have lasted less than two weeks. Last night, most of the GOP presidential candidates responded to Obama's address by questioning his plans to draw down troops and calling for a clearer form of victory in Afghanistan. Tim Pawlenty: "I thought his speech was deeply concerning ... When America goes to war, America needs to win." Mitt Romney: "We all want our troops to come home as soon as possible, but we shouldn't adhere to an arbitrary timetable on the withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan." Rick Santorum: "President Obama speaks of winding down our engagement in
Afghanistan, but he does not emphasize the need for victory."

THE OUTLIER - Jon Huntsman, who said it's time for a war with "significantly fewer boots on the ground than the President discussed tonight. We need a safe but rapid withdrawal which encourages Afghans to assume responsibility."

HUNTSMAN'S PATH - AROUND CONSERVATIVES - Huntsman has laid out a strategy for the 2012 GOP primaries that places remarkably little emphasis on one key voting group: Republicans. That's because the moderate former diplomat is looking for open primaries and independent voters to give him a McCain-style opening in the center. POLITICO's Kasie Hunt: "Huntsman sketched out a path to the Republican nomination Wednesday that bypasses the conservative base in key early states ... In an interview with POLITICO, Huntsman made clear that he plans to capitalize on election rules in New Hampshire and South Carolina that allow independent voters to cast ballots in the GOP presidential primary. 'These are
wide open primaries, we forget that,' Huntsman said, predicting an independent turnout in New Hampshire as high as 40 percent ... Later in the day, John Weaver, Huntsman's chief strategist, sought to clarify the ex-governor's intentions by saying: 'We intend to do well, in New Hampshire and South Carolina and Florida, among Republicans.'"
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PLUS - HE'LL DEBATE IN IOWA - The former Utah governor won't compete in the state's straw poll or caucuses, but Huntsman said Wednesday that he will appear at the Fox News debate in Iowa this August. That's two days before the Ames ballot in which he (and Romney) won't be participating.
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THE 2012 LANDSCAPE - ECONOMY FLAGS, INDIES DRIFT - President Obama's reelection numbers have taken a clear dip in the latest AP/GfK poll, with less than half of Americans now saying Obama deserves a second term. The good news for Obama is that his approval rating is still 52 percent in this survey. But even so, only 48 percent of Americans say he deserves reelection. Among women, the "deserves reelection" number dropped from 57 percent to 48 percent. Obama has tumbled with independents: His approval rating spiked to 62 percent with these voters after the Bin Laden killing, but now it's back to 43 percent amid renewed economic anxiety. AP: "The poll shows that four out of five people now
believe the economy is in poor shape...Obama faced 59 percent disapproval on his handling of the economy and on unemployment."
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N.H. SIREN - PERRY GOES NORTH - Texas Gov. Rick Perry will headline an October 28 dinner in Manchester, hosted by the conservative group Cornerstone Action. The news of Perry's planned trip came a day after he said he would visit South Carolina this summer for the RedState conference in Charleston. These events are a long way off - the New Hampshire trip is four months away - but Perry knows what kind of signal this calendar sends. Cornerstone head Kevin Smith called Perry a "model example of both fiscal and social conservative leadership ... Not to mention, he has also overseen the most robust economy of any state over the last decade."
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AND FOR THE DEMS - PATRICK TO NHDP - The New Hampshire Democratic Party announced that Massachusetts Gov. (and occasional 2016 buzz-maker) Deval Patrick will make the short trip to Concord for a fundraising dinner there on July 19. Patrick has already emerged as a key anti-Romney surrogate for the Democrats and has repeatedly talked up the GOP frontrunner's health care record on national television. His event in Concord is a low-dollar fundraiser honoring state House Democratic Leader Terie Norelli and Senate Democratic Leader Sylvia Larsen.
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BACHMANN'S ROLLOUT - EARLY-STATE TRIFECTA - Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann will formally kick off her presidential run with a Monday speech at the historic Snowden House in Waterloo, Iowa. The rest of the schedule, via POLITICO's Molly Ball: "On Tuesday, it's on to New Hampshire, where Bachmann is scheduled to hold an early-morning backyard chat at a private home near Manchester. That evening, she'll be in Myrtle Beach, S.C., to meet and greet supporters at a restaurant. Bachmann is scheduled to remain in South Carolina Wednesday for a series of events: a backyard chat in Charleston; meet-and-greets in Lexington and Greenville; and a town hall at Winthrop University in Rock Hill Wednesday
evening."
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MORE - AP EYE-ROLL - Associated Press writers Tom Beaumont and Brian Bakst resist the impulse to swoon over the Iowa-focused Bachmann's entry into the race, writing that she has allowed "precious weeks to pass without having established the presence needed in the state to woo the GOP activists considered key to winning its leadoff caucuses. Bachmann's slow open has left political players in the state wondering if the Republican congresswoman from Minnesota has the commitment to build the kind of grass-roots campaign and work to win voters in face-to-face meetings that have led past winners of the Iowa caucuses to success."
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MEANWHILE, AT THE WASILLA WHITE HOUSE - Sarah Palin penned a defiant Facebook message Wednesday evening pushing back on news reports that her "One Nation" bus tour is on ice. Her claim: Jury duty has kept her from traveling. From the note: "As I said myself at the end of the east coast leg of the tour, the summer is long, and I'm looking forward to hitting the open road again. The coming weeks are tight because civic duty calls (like most everyone else, even former governors get called up for jury duty) and I look forward to doing my part just like every other Alaskan...The next leg of the tour continues when the time comes."
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THE CALIFORNIA SPECIAL - PELOSI'S WARNING - Is Nancy Pelosi getting nervous about losing the solidly Democratic 36th District? Or is the former House speaker trying to fire up volunteers and donors in politically laid-back Los Angeles by suggesting the race is tight? The Washington Post reports on the Janice Hahn vs. Craig Huey campaign: "Democrats appear to be treating this race as a real fight ... 'We're fighting hard in that race,' House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told the Post Wednesday. 'It's not as easy a race, as overwhelming a race and Democratic seat as people like to think it is.'"
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We are going to have a very nice display but we're not going to go overboard ... We're not going to try and buy votes like it is rumored that some people have done in the past. I'm just saying." - Herman Cain, on his straw poll strategy
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