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By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman

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DRIVING THE DAY
THE STORY THAT MATTERS the most this week is in Columbus, Ohio, where Republican Troy Balderson will face off against Democrat Danny O'Connor for a solidly red House seat. This race will give us a good sense of the landscape at the moment. It's a Republican district that the GOP has held for 35 years and Cook rates as an R+7. So a Democratic win or anything close would indicate that the Ds have a massive advantage going into November.

ALEX ISENSTADT in WESTERVILLE, OHIO: "Democrats surging on eve of pivotal special election": "The entire Republican Party machinery has converged on this suburban Columbus district for a furious eleventh-hour campaign aimed at saving a conservative House seat and averting another special election disaster.

"But in the final days ahead of Tuesday's election, signs were everywhere that Democrats are surging -- from recent polling to the private and public statements of many Republicans, including the GOP candidate himself. The district has been reliably red for more than three decades, but the sheer size of the Republican cavalry made clear how worried the party is about losing it. ...

"The [RNC] has opened two offices in the district, launched a $500,000-plus get-out-the-vote effort, and dispatched one of its top officials, Bob Paduchik, who ran Trump's 2016 Ohio campaign. And outside conservative groups, led by a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, have dumped more than $3.5 million onto the TV airwaves, far outpacing Democrats." POLITICO

-- THE RNC just reported nearly $20,000 on phone calls for Troy Balderson.

-- COLUMBUS DISPATCH: "Balderson won't address Kasich claim he did not invite Trump to central Ohio"

THE PRESIDENT played golf with SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) yesterday in New Jersey. Sarah Huckabee Sanders put out a statement Sunday night that the two discussed a number of issues including national security and trade.

TRUMP'S REAX TO CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES -- @realDonaldTrump at 6:06 p.m.: "California wildfires are being magnified & made so much worse by the bad environmental laws which aren't allowing massive amount of readily available water to be properly utilized. It is being diverted into the Pacific Ocean. Must also tree clear to stop fire spreading!"

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- SCOTUS WATCH -- PROTECT OUR CARE is going up with one week of TV and radio health care-focused ads in Maine, Alaska and Nevada targeting Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Dean Heller (Nev.). The group is spending $150,000 on the push in what a spokesman for the group described as an "opening salvo" in its effort to "educate the public about what's at stake for health care with Trump's SCOTUS pick."

Protect Our Care will also be engaging in field activity all week in those three states, along with 11 others, focused on talking about pre-existing conditions protections, Medicaid and women's health. Example of the Collins ad

-- "Dems zero in on Kavanaugh ties to judge in sexual harassment scandal," by Elana Schor: POLITICO

MEANWHILE ... "America First Policies to target red-state Dems with TV ads backing Kavanaugh," by Chris Cadelago: "America First Policies, a Trump-aligned advocacy group promoting the president's nominee with a seven-figure effort, will take to broadcast TV beginning Wednesday with ads against Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, according to information the group provided to POLITICO.

"America First plans to spend nearly $1.2 million over the nearly month-long blitz, expanding on the parallel efforts of other deep pocketed conservative groups - Judicial Crisis Network and Americans for Prosperity - which have been up with pro-Kavanaugh TV ads and on-the-ground activism." POLITICO


A message from AARP:

What role will Hispanic voters over 50 play in Arizona this fall? Read POLITICO Magazine's new series "The Deciders" which focuses on this powerful voting bloc that could be the determining factor in turning Arizona blue.

THE MANAFORT TRIAL -- DARREN SAMUELSOHN emailed us this dispatch: "Judge Ellis was trying to be kind with a 1 p.m. Monday start time for the Manafort trial. 'You may play or sleep until then,' he said during a housekeeping session at the end of last week's proceedings.

"The case resumes with Manafort's attorneys doing their cross examination of their client's former accountant, Cindy Laporta. She testified on Friday that she thought Manafort's taxes had false information in them when she was filing them and believed she may have been committed a crime. 'I very much regret it,' she said.

"Laporta is the first witness to be testifying in the trial under immunity, which the Mueller prosecutors brought up in their direct questioning. But the defense attorneys have also signaled in court that they'll be bringing up those conditions too."

-- WHAT'S NEXT: "We don't know yet who the Mueller team will call after Laporta. Mueller's team hasn't telegraphed that. But we do know she is the 14th witness from the special counsel's original list of 35 who have so far been summoned to the stand. Peter Carr declined to comment when I asked if the full list of witnesses will be called.

"So, for those keeping score at home, that means we've got no more than 21 witnesses to go on the prosecution side. It's entirely possible the prosecutors may pare things back especially given Judge Ellis's desire to keep things moving.

-- THE BIG QUESTION -- WHEN WILL RICK GATES TESTIFY? -- "It seems unlikely that will happen on Monday, and I'd also say the odds are low for Tuesday too given the prosecutors still seem to be laying the groundwork for that big of a witness. I'd put the odds highest at him appearing either Wednesday or Thursday."

JOSH GERSTEIN and DARREN: "Manafort's defense team attempts mission impossible" POLITICO


A message from AARP:


Social Security is the most important issue for voters over 50 in Arizona this fall. View the latest POLITICO/AARP poll results at politico.com/thedeciders

ANNIE KARNI, "The real lesson Trump learned from Charlottesville": "[T]he Republicans in Congress who distanced themselves from Trump during the height of the controversy last summer have since embraced the president on tax reform and his Supreme Court selection, Brett Kavanaugh. Many of the executives who walked away from Trump's business councils have simply taken their hobnobbing behind closed doors: Now they quietly dine with the president at the White House, or with his daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner at their Kalorama mansion.

"Trump's poll numbers, while still hitting a ceiling below 50 percent, in the year since Charlottesville have climbed up to a high of 44 percent, according to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Trump is in high demand as a campaign surrogate among Republican candidates.

"His supportive gang of Fox News hosts have become more ethno-nationalist in their rhetoric than they were a year ago. Meanwhile, Trump himself is less constrained than he was after Charlottesville. At his campaign rallies and on Twitter, he has become more unadulterated in his critiques of what he calls the 'fake news' media.

"The advisers who tried to serve as a check on his rash impulses have since left the administration and have been replaced with people more likely to let Trump set his own agenda. And, as he did on Friday, the president has continued to inflame racial tensions - something Democrats and Republicans alike see as fundamental to his power.

"With Trump back on his annual working vacation at his Bedminster, New Jersey, country club - the same setting he was in during the Charlottesville crisis - the LeBron tweet served as a reminder that the president has done little to ameliorate that low-water mark of Charlottesville as one of the defining images of his presidency." With cameos by Douglas Brinkley, Bill Kristol, Robby Mook and Al Sharpton. POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR -- CHICAGO TRIBUNE: "In less than 7 hours, 40 shot, 4 fatally as violence rips Chicago": Tribune

2018 WATCH -- "Accused of Harassment, and Seeking Redemption at the Ballot Box," by NYT's Julie Turkewitz in Yuma, Ariz. and Alan Blinder in Spanaway, Wash.: "In Arizona, the list of women accusing former State Representative Don Shooter of sexual harassment includes a Republican colleague, a Democratic legislator, at least two lobbyists, a newspaper intern and the former publisher of The Arizona Republic.

"'I'm a sucker for the pretty ladies,' Mr. Shooter is said to have told one woman while shaking his pelvis in her face. More than 1,000 miles to the northwest, State Representative David Sawyer, a Washington Democrat, has been accused of unwelcome advances, inappropriate remarks or other misconduct by at least eight women, including former legislative aides and a lobbyist he asked to be his 'arm candy.'

"Almost a year into an antiharassment movement that has prompted a coast-to-coast cultural reckoning, Mr. Shooter and Mr. Sawyer are among more than a dozen politicians who have been accused of misconduct and are running for state legislatures again anyway. Among them are a Kentucky legislator accused of sending racy text messages to an aide, a Pennsylvania lawmaker involved in a six-figure sexual harassment settlement and a Wisconsin representative accused of forcible kissing." NYT

NYT'S NICK CORASANITI: "In Deeply Blue New Jersey, an Unexpected Battle for Senate": "Facing a deep-pocketed Republican challenger, a blitz of negative ads and lingering concerns over a lackluster performance in an uncontested primary, Mr. Menendez's race has started to concern some Democrats. After weathering a criminal indictment and a harsh ethics rebuke from his Senate peers, Mr. Menendez may find himself in a tough enough re-election fight that will force the party to devote money and energy needed in other races critical to the party's quest to retake Congress." NYT

THE FUTURE ... WAPO'S DAVE WEIGEL in FLINT, MICHIGAN: "Wherever he takes his campaign for governor, Abdul El-Sayed is followed by activists handing out information about 'Medicare for all.' When he grabs the microphone, El-Sayed makes a promise: He'll bring universal health care to Michigan.

"'Why can the CEOs of big insurance corporations take home $13 million a year when 600,000 Michiganders still don't have access to health care?' asked El-Sayed, who is a doctor, at a campaign stop last week in one of the state's poorest cities. 'When are we going to have leadership that stands up for statewide Medicare for all?'

"El-Sayed, who campaigned this weekend with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) before Tuesday's primary, is one of at least a dozen Democrats running for governor this year on a pledge to do what no state has ever done: give basic health insurance to everyone, no matter the cost." WaPo

THE ISSUE FOR DEMS ... AL.COM: "Pelosi, Clinton, Moore: The 'boogeymen' in Alabama's political campaigns," by John Sharp: "Halloween might be more than 80 days away, but the ghouls and goblins are already out on the campaign trail and the candidates are hoping to exploit the scares through Election Day.

"For the Republicans, they are banking on frights from mentioning the names of Democratic California Congresswomen Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters and former presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Democrats want to strike fear by linking their opponents to former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice and Senate candidate Roy Moore.

"The strategy is simple, and was in play during the primary season: Connect these out-of-state politicians with an in-state rival and create a perception of extremism while stoking fear among voters." AL.com

TOP-ED -- DON. JR backs FOSTER FRIESS for Wyoming governor in an op-ed in the Casper Star-Tribune: "I was introduced to Foster in 2016 through our mutual friend, the head of the country's largest student-organization, Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk. Following my father clinching the Republican nomination, there was a short period where some conventional sources of funding had not yet opened up to us, but Foster was right there when we needed him and helped open the door to other early adopters in the donor community.

"His generous early support helped make it possible for us to fund our ongoing grassroots mobilization operation in states like Iowa, Michigan and Ohio. Foster stepped up when we needed him most and made a real difference in my father's campaign, and for that I will always be grateful." Casper Star-Tribune

TRUMP'S MONDAY -- He is having dinner with supporters in Bedminster, New Jersey.

PLAYBOOK ON THE ROAD -- Tweet or send us a photo of you, your friends and companions reading Playbook this August to @playbookplus using hashtag #PlaybookLoyal or email them to Daniel at daniel@politico.com for the chance to be featured on Friday each week this month.
PLAYBOOK READS
2020 WATCH -- AP'S TOM BEAUMONT in DES MOINES: "The Iowa State Fair opens this week, complete with its signature deep-fried Oreos and prize hog judging. Country star Reba McEntire will be on the grandstand, but another type of celebrity will be missing: marquee names eyeing the White House.

"The fair's time-honored mix of late-summer family fun and high-wattage political pageantry will instead feature the Democratic backbench of presidential hopefuls, including Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro and Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan. The visit generating the most buzz this week is Michael Avenatti, the lawyer for the adult-film actress suing Trump who is attending the state Democratic Party's annual summer fundraiser." AP

TRADE WARS -- "Steel Giants With Ties to Trump Officials Block Tariff Relief for Hundreds of Firms," by NYT's Jim Tankersley: "Two of America's biggest steel manufacturers - both with deep ties to Trump administration officials - have successfully objected to hundreds of requests by American companies that buy foreign steel to exempt themselves from President Trump's stiff metal tariffs. They have argued that the imported products are readily available from American steel manufacturers. Charlotte-based Nucor, which financed a documentary film made by a top trade adviser to Mr. Trump, and Pittsburgh-based United States Steel, which has previously employed several top administration
officials, have objected to 1,600 exemption requests filed with the Commerce Department over the past several months.

"To date, their efforts have never failed, resulting in denials for companies that are based in the United States but rely on imported pipes, screws, wire and other foreign steel products for their supply chains. The ability of a single industry to exert so much influence over the exclusions process is striking even in Mr. Trump's business-friendly White House, given the high stakes for thousands of American companies that depend on foreign metals." NYT

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "U.S. Officials Push New Penalties for Hackers of Electrical Grid," by WSJ's Rebecca Smith: "Top administration officials are devising new penalties to hit back more forcefully at state-sponsored hackers of critical infrastructure to deter attacks such as the successful penetration of U.S. utilities by Russian agents last year. The push for explicit action is coming from top federal agencies to fight worsening threats to the country's electricity system and other critical industries, particularly menacing actions from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea." WSJ

A message from AARP:


Will voters over 50 decide the 2018 midterm elections? Visit politico.com/thedeciders to learn more!

VA WATCH -- "Trump promised to fix veterans' problems. Now they call his hotline desperate for help," by WaPo's Jessica Contrera in Shepherdstown, W.Va.: "The phones rang early in the morning and late in the evening. They rang, always, in the middle of the night. ... The calls came from veterans who were about to be evicted. Veterans who couldn't get hold of their doctors. Veterans who needed to talk about what they saw in Afghanistan or Iraq or Vietnam. Mary pressed a button. Her headset clicked on. 'This is the White House VA hotline,' she said, introducing herself by first name only. 'How can I help you?'

"Here in a small West Virginia town, 74 miles from the White House, a Donald Trump campaign promise is being fulfilled. He told the country's 20 million veterans that if they had an issue with the Department of Veterans Affairs, there would be a number they could call 24 hours a day to talk to a real person." WaPo

MEDIAWATCH -- "'60 Minutes' exec named in misconduct article delays return," by AP's Mae Anderson in New York and Lynn Elber in Beverly Hills: "The executive producer of the CBS news show "60 Minutes" is delaying his return from vacation until an investigation into sexual misconduct claims at the network wraps up. Meanwhile, CBS Entertainment President Kelly Kahl told reporters on Sunday that CBS isn't saying it's perfect and that there's room for improvement in any large company.

"The executives are dealing with fallout from a scandal after allegations against the executive producer, Jeff Fager, and CBS CEO Les Moonves appeared in a New Yorker article last month. ... 'Having heard the investigation will be wrapping up soon, Jeff has decided to stay on vacation,' CBS News said in a statement. The company declined to comment on when the investigation might end." AP

- Per Morning Media: "New WaPo Trump Book: Washington Post national security correspondent Greg Miller will be out on Oct. 2 with 'The Apprentice: Trump, Russia and The Subversion of American Democracy.' The book, which will be published by HarperCollins imprint Custom House, includes additional reporting from the Post's Devlin Barrett, Karen DeYoung, Elizabeth Dwoskin, Tom Hamburger, Rosalind Helderman, Sari Horwitz, Greg Jaffe, Ellen Nakashima, Julie Tate, Craig Timberg, Anton Troianovski and Matt Zapotosky."

-- Indira Lakshmanan is joining the Pulitzer Center as executive editor. She is currently the Newmark chair in journalism ethics at the Poynter Institute and a Boston Globe columnist.

-- Zara Rahim has been hired to head up strategic communications for The Wing. She most recently was the communications director at Vogue, and is an alum of HFA, Uber and the Obama White House and his 2012 campaign.
PLAYBOOKERS
SPOTTED: Chris and Kathleen Matthews at the musical comedy "Dave" Saturday night at Arena Stage ... Omarosa walking on Wisconsin Avenue NW in Georgetown

SPOTTED AT NETROOTS NATION -- ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ joined the Latino Victory Fund for a dinner Saturday at Calcasieu in New Orleans.

SPOTTED: Cristóbal J. Alex, Melissa Mark-Viverito, David Garcia, Julián Castro, Kevin de Leon, Carolyn Fiddler, Will Rockafellow, Camille Rivera, María Urbina, Jocasta Zamarippa, Helena Moreno, Nelini Stamp, Franco Caliz, Illinois state Sen. Iris Martinez, Mayra Macias and Abby Loisel.

TRANSITION - TRUMP ALUMNI: Alexandra Campau has returned to Cozen O'Connor to serve as principal and director of health policy in the firm's public strategies group. She is the former special assistant to the president on the White House Domestic Policy Council.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Renuka Rayasam, POLITICO's Austin-based health care correspondent, and husband Ricardo Gilb welcomed new son Rafael on Aug. 2. Pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Jenny Mayfield, director of media relations and public affairs at Nextdoor. How she's celebrating: "In my favorite place, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with my favorite people, my hubby and three kids, preferably on a paddle board on String Lake in Grand Teton National Park." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Malika Saada Saar, Google's senior counsel on civil and human rights (hat tip: Autumn) ... Neil Irwin, senior economic correspondent at NYT's The Upshot ... David Maraniss is 69 ... Jared Wise ... WSJ's Julie Bykowicz (h/t Annie Linskey) ... Tom Brandt, comms director for Sen. Moran ... Erin Karriker ... Corey Jacobson, legislative director for Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) ... Ally Freeman ... Jill Farrell, director of public affairs at Judicial Watch ... Jonathan Riskind ... Anna Sekulow of the American Center for Law & Justice and daughter-in-law of President Trump's lawyer Jay Sekulow (hubby tip: Jordan) ... "NewsHour" senior broadcast producer Mike Melia is 37 (h/t Nick Massella)
... Michael McMahan ... Politico's Dan Diamond and Hannah Thomas ... Michael Glennon is 32 ... Lyndsey Wajert ... Pat Reap ... Scott Ogden ... Ashley Carter ... Krysia Lenzo ... . Cherie Paquette (hubby tip: Zach Gillan) ... Terry McDermott ... Nitzan Pelman ... Sergio Bustos ... Jeff Person ... Nicole Cohen ... J. Oliver Schak ... USA Today alum Rem Rieder ... Liz Teitz ... Ambassador Bruce Laingen is 96 ... Adjoa (Adofo) Kyerematen ...

... Lindsay Bembenek, comms director at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation ...Doug Stafford is 47 ... Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders ... Joan DeBoer of DLA Piper and Ray LaHood's longtime chief of staff (h/t Ray) ... Tara Sonenshine, former Obama under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs now a distinguished fellow at GWU (h/t Jon Haber) ... Ben Wieder, data reporter for McClatchy DC (h/ts Kristin Roberts and Dave Levinthal) ... Marta Dehmlow Hernandez ... Keith St. Clair ... Jeffrey Lerner of DKC Public Relations ... Amanda Brown Lierman ... Andrew J. Eisenberger ... Sarah Coyle ... Marta Dehmlow ... Teresa Almanza ... Viktoria Seale ...
Rick Olseen .. Melissa Beaumont ... Klon Kitchen ... Robert Wilkie ... Allyson Browning ... Doug Mataconis ... Alan Lipman ... Cameron Lynch ... Michael Gill ... Ellen Dadisman ... David Nolte ... Mike Friedman ... Mia Terry ... Amalia Stott ... Mary Elgar (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

A message from AARP:

Democrats have been expecting Barry Goldwater's home state of Arizona to flip blue for years, yet it remains red. Will 2018 be the election cycle that tips the scales? The latest issue of POLITICO Magazine's new series "The Deciders," takes a deep dive into Maricopa County Arizona to understand the power of Hispanic voters over 50. With two crucial Arizona races in play, will it be voter turnout in this group, or identity politics that decides the day and what issues matter most to this influential voting bloc? Visit politico.com/thedeciders to read the latest editorial package.

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