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By Alexander Burns (
mailto:aburns@politico.com
aburns@politico.com ) and James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com )

FIRST IN SCORE - TOSS-UP IN N.C. - President Barack Obama is on track to make North Carolina one of the most competitive states on the 2012 map, according to a new survey from the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling. Obama has a narrowly positive approval rating in the state, where he's headed for a visit today: 49 percent of voters approve of his job performance, versus 47 percent who disapprove. Independents are evenly split on the president, with 47 percent rating him positively and 46 percent giving him negative reviews. Obama has solid leads over all the Republican candidates except Mitt Romney, whom he edges by just 1 percentage point. The president is ahead of Tim Pawlenty
by 7 points, Newt Gingrich by 10 points and Herman Cain by 11 points. He performs best against Sarah Palin, leading her by a 14-point margin.

MORE FROM PPP - Raleigh-based pollsters Dean Debnam and Tom Jensen write: "North Carolina is likely to be much more important to the Presidential race next year than it was in 2008. Obama's approval numbers in North Carolina are superior to what we're finding for him in your quintessential swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. While North Carolina was one of the closest states in the country in 2008, it was really just the cherry on top for Obama in an electoral landslide. This time it could very well be part of the path to 270 electoral votes for the President. North Carolina is never going to be a cakewalk for Obama, especially if Romney is the nominee, but the state should
be very competitive again in 2012." Full results here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=654459a578286de3940e4abf35ebfe89a7ea9ee07577c2cc2086435e458153bf
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OBAMA'S N.C. VISIT - From the White House guidance: "In the morning, the President will travel to Morrisville, North Carolina ... The President will then visit Cree, Inc., a leading manufacturer of energy efficient LED lighting, and tour Cree's manufacturing facilities in Durham... Following the tour, the President will meet with the Jobs and Competitiveness Council to discuss initiatives and policies to spur economic growth, promote job creation and accelerate hiring across our nation... Later, the President will deliver remarks to workers at Cree, Inc."

As California Republicans regroup, Chris Rants picks a caucus favorite and David Axelrod cozies up to a certain former Florida governor, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE MAIN 2012 EVENT - FIGHT NIGHT IN MANCHESTER - Seven Republicans will take the stage at 8 p.m. tonight for the CNN/WMUR/Union Leader debate at St. Anselm College, the first New Hampshire debate of the 2012 campaign. The man most likely to end up in the hot seat is Mitt Romney, according to all the pre-debate curtain raiser stories. POLITICO: "Romney has watched the 2012 race move gradually in his direction ... The New Hampshire debate will be a test of Romney's momentum, but there will be more pressure on his rivals to distinguish themselves than there will be on him to say anything new." The Wall Street Journal: "Mr. Romney will likely face questions on policies that disquiet some
conservatives, including his Massachusetts health plan and earlier positions on abortion and climate change-and potentially sleeper issues, such as his stewardship of the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=654459a578286de380e6a939f15b7fb3670eaa0beb7db1a01c278f80c6bc22bb
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THE SPIN ROOM - SNEAK PEEK - All the Republican candidates will have spokesmen and validators on hand to speak with the press after the debate. Here's who the campaigns told Score they'll be sending out:

- Romney: New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, former state Attorney General Tom Rath, senior New Hampshire strategist Jim Merrill, Romney finance committee member Austin Barbour, among others

- Gingrich: Jackie Cushman and Kathy Lubbers, the candidate's daughters

- Santorum: Senior adviser John Brabender and national political director Mike Biundo

- Paul: Political adviser Jesse Benton

- Cain: Herman Cain will represent himself

- Pawlenty and Bachmann: TBA

ALSO ON THE SCENE: DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse will be at St. Anselm to "discuss the Republican candidates' records of failed fiscal leadership and respond to the numerous mistruths that we'll undoubtedly hear from them," per a DNC official.

EARLY SHOTS FIRED - 'OBAMNEYCARE' - Tim Pawlenty introduced that word into the political lexicon on "Fox News Sunday," making his most explicit, health care-themed attack on Romney and indicating he may come out swinging in tonight's debate. Romney-land fired back via Twitter, as senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom alluded on Twitter to some of the weaker points in Pawlenty's record: "I love this Romney fact: as governor, he left behind $2.3 billion IN CASH for his successor...Here's another Romney fact in light of Globe poll finding on jobs/budget: he got a credit rating upgrade as governor."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=654459a578286de3e99f95c6e6826b699dc71ed8d6a9f2ef3f53c572a9bc994a
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MORE WHERE THAT CAME FROM - Pawlenty will appear on CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning at 8;10 a.m. Former GE CEO Jack Welch, who praised Pawlenty's economic speech last week, is co-hosting and invited him. Pawlenty is also making an 11 a.m. stop at Next Stop Orthotics and Prosthetics in Manchester - another opportunity to draw contrasts on health care.

ATTACKING ON MEDICARE - PROTECT YOUR CARE STRIKES - The Democratic health care reform group Protect Your Care is on the air with its first television ad, slamming Republicans for trying to "end Medicare." The commercial started running yesterday in the Boston Market and on WMUR and it will air multiple times during the debate. It features a senior citizen, Julie Evans, saying Republicans want to "end Medicare give seniors a voucher and say 'good luck' ... This is something we've been counting on. We're not prepared for this." Protect Your Care is also running saturation-level online ads on the same topic. Watch the TV spot here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=654459a578286de3c6c585d8082af2dac72247b11fc73fadb949974d889433f9
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ALSO ON THE AIR: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee will air a spot against New Hampshire Rep. Charlie Bass on WMUR during the debate and in CNN's post-debate coverage. The ad features a woman saying to the camera: "If I didn't have Medicare, doctors' bills could wipe me out." See the ad here, at the 0:29 mark:
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PERRY LOOMS - EXCLUSIVE - The pro-business conservative group Americans for Job Security has bought up online ads in New Hampshire publications, touting Texas Gov. Rick Perry's work enacting "loser pays" tort reform. The ads link to a petition that brags: "Texas is leading the nation in job creation because of its pro-growth economic policies. In the last two years Texas, led by Gov. Rick Perry, has created more jobs than any other state ... Loser-pays tort reform removes a harmful barrier to job creation." AJS president Steve DeMaura, a former executive director of the New Hampshire Republican Party, also has an op-ed in NH Journal declaring "tort reform must be pulled into the national
spotlight, and New Hampshire's presidential debate is the place to do that. See the column here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=654459a578286de3fc518d2374f8c036ab2f6a3c267011ab8ae4ffa79dfffff9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=654459a578286de3fc518d2374f8c036ab2f6a3c267011ab8ae4ffa79dfffff9 ; the AJS petition here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=654459a578286de3001fa140fa4975d500def8b2777c84b3c4bfb7cdc162d6a5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=654459a578286de3001fa140fa4975d500def8b2777c84b3c4bfb7cdc162d6a5 ; and one of the web ads here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3f4b9380c7f3568b8ca41f4921250146c896208ca50114a941229146353005c2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3f4b9380c7f3568b8ca41f4921250146c896208ca50114a941229146353005c2

GINGRICH 2.0 - 'WE WILL PREVAIL' - The former House speaker batted away process questions in a Sunday appearance before the Republican Jewish Coalition, only alluding in passing to the en masse departure of his staff last week. The Post's Ned Martel: "In the speech on Sunday night, Gingrich did not dwell on that political fracas, and warned the audience that President Obama had recently proposed a starting point for peace negotiations that put Israel at an unacceptable risk... As he made the rounds among well-wishers at the reception, Gingrich declined to answer all but one media inquiry. Asked how viable his campaign is, he replied: 'Go ask the voters.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3f4b9380c7f3568ba1cf86424bee126417a601b6f722fb34dcddd17dc30e16bf
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COUNTDOWN TO HUNTSMAN - 'WEEK AND A HALF' - The former ambassador to China is skipping tonight's candidate forum because he says he hasn't decided whether to run for president. But Jon Huntsman told CNN's Candy Crowley that his announcement is "about a week and a half out," explaining in an interview that aired Sunday: "We've basically checked all the boxes, and now we're moving." Huntsman will make a visit to New York on Tuesday, participating in a public discussion with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the Reuters headquarters there.
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NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "Jon Huntsman campaign errs on fundraising claim" - The Washington Post's Phil Rucker follows up on a piece about Huntsman's fundraising: "Two senior officials in the [Huntsman] political operation told The Washington Post that FedEx founder Frederick W. Smith had agreed last week to support Huntsman ... But at about noon Sunday, a FedEx executive speaking on behalf of Smith said that Smith had not signed up with Huntsman... 'It was a very brief, innocuous call and obviously Fred took the call because of the former ambassador's role in China,' [FedEx VP William] Margaritis said. He added that Huntsman 'did not request any support from Fred and Fred did not offer any
support of any kind' ... The Huntsman campaign swiftly apologized."
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IOWA TALKER - RANTS PREDICTS BACHMANN WIN - Former Iowa House Speaker Chris Rants writes in a column for the Sioux City Journal that his state's caucuses are likely to break for the Minnesota congresswoman. His reasoning: "Understand, she is not MY pick, but the person I think is most likely to win. There are many reasons - but she has a secret weapon no other candidate possesses - the King factor. The first person I ever heard mention Michele Bachmann was Congressman Steve King ... King needs to tune up his own organization for his newly drawn district and prep for a future run statewide run. Nobody fires up a room of caucus going Republicans like King."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3f4b9380c7f3568b242c798d1af5041345596996eed6acf740e1af505eb89ea5
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LOST IN THE WEEKEND - CALIFORNIA MASSACRE - Overshadowed by Friday's Sarah Palin email dump, the biggest non-presidential political news of the last few days was the release of California's independently drawn, but Democrat-friendly redistricting map. Alex Isenstadt reports: "The new map places nearly a dozen sets of two or more incumbents in the same district and crafts another dozen or so vacant seats - meaning that if lawmakers are looking to avoid steel cage matches or to stake out unclaimed territory, they're going to have to pack their U-Hauls." The losers are largely Republican, putting the GOP at risk of losing half a dozen seats out of just one state. Combined with the heavily
gerrymandered map Democrats have put forward for Illinois, that would make control of the House of Representatives increasingly competitive.
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POPPING IN FLORIDA - CRIST 2014? As Florida Democrats convened for their Jefferson Jackson Dinner this weekend, some were floating an unlikely name for the party's 2014 gubernatorial nomination: former Gov. Charlie Crist. The St. Petersburg Times says one hint will be if Crist decides to endorse Obama for reelection: "Crist, still popular outside of conservative Republican circles, endorses Obama and helps his campaign in Florida in 2012. He parlays that goodwill into another gubernatorial campaign and Democrats desperate to rid Florida of Rick Scott welcome a moderate statewide figure." In the story, David Axelrod goes on the record praising Crist for the "gutsy" move of supporting the
stimulus and said of a possible endorsement: "We welcome any and all support and he's someone who the president has regard for." See the other 2014 names mentioned here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3f4b9380c7f3568bf3f2f48deb56a2e866f4f81d05e8fb92c9fd7b72f1faa861
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AND IN OHIO - MEET THE REELECT - The Columbus Dispatch takes stock of the early efforts to rebuild a winning Obama field operation in the state, under the leadership of OFA state director Greg Schultz: "Obama's ground game in Ohio was viewed as a big reason for the registration of 314,893 more voters in 2008 than four years earlier. But an expected law change by GOP state legislators that would narrow the pre-election absentee-voting period from 35 days to 21 has added urgency to the Obama campaign's efforts to identify and register likely voters for the president...Some see this November's likely ballot issue to repeal Senate Bill 5, which curtails collective-bargaining rights, as an
opportunity for Obama's Ohio organization to get an early road test."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3f4b9380c7f3568b946f9acf99c5b92297907bf0c3b2090ad7b5dac6cd61eee4
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RUNNING SILENT - MIKE PENCE LAUNCHES - Indiana Rep. Mike Pence formally announced his campaign for governor on Saturday, with the local press coverage focused on two pieces of news: Pence won't endorse in the heated Senate primary and he won't offer any specific policy proposals until 2012. The Indianapolis Star: "Pressed on just what [possible] reforms [he'd support] are, Pence said that if he wins the Republican nomination, he'll get into details...Although Pence is remaining mum on policy specifics, his politics are well known."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3f4b9380c7f3568ba60e1540ca267953bb1de1aa91db8761801a5ae0e3f37fd4
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Thank God it's not Weiner." - House Speaker John Boehner, on his last name, during a commencement address at Ohio State
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