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10/17/2016 07:46 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

With assistance from Daniel Lippman

DEMS DREAM BIG: SPEAKER PELOSI- With Donald Trump's campaign in a freefall, Nancy Pelosi's months-long moniker for the GOP nominee-"The gift that keeps on giving"-may not be that far off. For months Pelosi has been saying Democrats could take back the House, a once laughable idea to many that's not looking so funny for Republicans anymore. Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats to grab the gavel again-a tall and still unlikely order but not outside the realm of possibility as Trump's poll numbers continue to plunge.

Where things stand: Sitting in the speaker's chair again would be a remarkable coup for Pelosi-it's been six decades since a former speaker was reelected to the position again after an absence-and a true testament to her ability to hang on. "It's no longer, 'Can we fight to win the House?'" House Democratic Caucus Chairman Xavier Becerra told Huddle. "It's, 'Can [Republicans] fight to keep from losing the House?'"

Hillary Clinton is currently up 5.5 points over Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling average and Democrats have a 5-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Pelosi's note to Democrats on Friday: "Happily, we anticipate a large freshman class," she wrote.

The Democratic agenda: So what would Democrats do with a Speaker Pelosi, President Clinton and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for at least two years? They'd likely push through an ambitious policy agenda with billions of dollars for infrastructure, an immigration overhaul and bipartisan fixes to Obamacare. "Hillary Clinton has said there are two big priorities she wants to tackle right away: infrastructure and immigration," Rep. Gerry Connolly told Huddle. "I think the appetite on our side of the aisle for both of those things is quite great." My story, new this morning: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc182b7695190e34b3df38d11e903224c25c566f17394de9f3ead

Pelosi on CNN Sunday: The House "is definitely within reach." Eric Bradner with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc1827bf998400ffc24ab2109fe3a8f7822e8bb9df7411deaee13

MEANWHILE, IN TRUMP WORLD- Trump continued his barrage of attacks against Paul Ryan, taking to Twitter Sunday to accuse the House speaker of "fighting" the GOP nominee and criticizing Ryan's failed VP bid. "Paul Ryan, a man who doesn't know how to win (including failed run four years ago), must start focusing on the budget, military, vets etc.," Trump tweeted.

Trump is also stepping up his "rigged election" rhetoric-his theory seconded over the weekend by Sen. Jeff Sessions-while other Republican leaders, including his VP nominee Mike Pence, are downplaying or outright dismissing the idea.

"Sessions told the crowd in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, 'They are attempting to rig this election.' AshLee Strong, a spokeswoman for House Speaker Paul Ryan, rejected the claims on Saturday. 'Our democracy relies on confidence in election results, and the speaker is fully confident the states will carry out this election with integrity,' she said in a statement." Rebecca Morin with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc18215323d906613e4bd22f4d4a031ee8156533281fcd9f89d4d

THE ONE WHO SHALL NOT BE NAMED- Donald Trump didn't come up once during Speaker Ryan's much-touted Q&A with College Republicans Friday. Coincidence? Not likely. Rachael with the story from Madison: "According to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's son, Alex Walker, who leads the conservative students group at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, students pre-submitted questions and Ryan's office decided which were posed during a q-and-a session that lasted more than 20 minutes."

Ryan's typically sunny demeanor was shelved for the Friday speech, with the Wisconsin Republican instead warning of "a gloom and grayness to things" if Democrats win big in November and saying they "rig the system." Rachael: "Ryan painted a dark picture of America under President Barack Obama - and argued how much worse it would get under a President Hillary Clinton and Democratic Congress."

Reading the tea leaves: "The pessimistic take on the state of the union under Democratic rule signals that Ryan - who many suspect is eyeing his own run for the White House in 2020 - is acutely aware of the anger among the GOP base that Trump rode to the nomination." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc182a3c1c4f849708abceebd84e134e72efbbf6fab0305b2fb65

WELCOME BACK Y'ALL. It's Monday, October 17. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. The Tide rolled to another victory Saturday, trouncing Tennessee 49-10. And unfortunately, Ohio State is still undefeated. Onward!

FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED- The picture of Mira Sorvino participating in a "die in" on the Capitol Hill lawn to raise awareness for breast cancer prevention funding.

TODAY IN CONGRESS- The Senate meets in a pro forma session at 11 a.m. The House is out.

TONIGHT- Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Patrick Murphy face off in a televised debate co-hosted by POLITICO Florida. The Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc1828df057b2d34c2a7af20dad010aa379ac753c4abbace28d30

HEY, MUST BE THE MONEY- With just three weeks until election day and the Senate majority in play, Republicans are facing a big problem: lack of cash. "Republicans are set to be massively outspent on TV ads in seven of the eight states that are likely to decide control of the chamber," report Alex Isenstadt, Seung Min Kim and Kevin Robillard.

"The spending disadvantage could badly hinder the GOP's prospects, and it has led to growing frustration among the party's top strategists - many of whom are convinced it's long past time to cut Trump loose and focus almost exclusively on preserving the Senate majority. ... As of Friday afternoon, the [NRSC] had reserved just $5 million for the four week stretch - a small fraction of the $40 million booked by the DSCC."

Exhibit A: "In Pennsylvania, the gap is particularly large. Democrats, who tied Republican Sen. Pat Toomey to Trump in another new ad last week, have reserved $17 million of TV airtime there - more than double the $8 million Republicans are set to air."

TWEETS DU JOUR- Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher): Four of @JeffFlake's last five tweets are denouncing @realDonaldTrump. Again, he is the Republican senator from Arizona.

-NYT Politics (@nytpolitics): Paul Ryan spends his days treating Donald Trump like a disgruntled former employee bent on Twitter revenge http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc18229386a2facf6ffe44864869ded462bca0af4834711daa3f3

PRESIDENT COTTON? NOT SO FAST- Many Republicans are already eyeing the 2020 race but it seems voters are not so keen to look that far into the future, at least not yet. Case in point? Sen. Tom Cotton, a potential future White House contender, wrapping up a round of campaign stops in Iowa:

"For most people in the audience, Cotton was making his first impression. In interviews, a few Republicans said they'd seen Cotton on Fox News Channel; most had not heard of him. Questions about what might happen in t after a Trump loss were, at first dismissed, then answered with praise for Mike Pence," reports David Weigel for the Washington Post.

YOUR DAILY LISTICLE- "Top 10 House races to watch," from the New York Times: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc182bf46d1f153804d8a3693c00d553e4941f34bc11e9aa82eee

BACK TO WORK? - It's not just Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland who is waiting on the sidelines for Senate action. The AP's Mary Clare Jalonick: "More than 90 vacancies in the federal judiciary are taking a toll on judges, the courts and Americans seeking recourse. Obama has nominated replacements for more than half of those spots, including 44 nominees for the district court and seven for the appeals court. Yet the Senate has confirmed only nine district and appeals court judges this year - and only four since Scalia died."

DEEP DIVE- The New Yorker profiles Sen. Tim Kaine: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc1826ff239354f6d49481079d21bc9312fcc4b589f732fe80487

McCAIN SINGS NEW TUNE- Sen. John McCain has long been a critic of what he deems unnecessary government spending pushed by other lawmakers (remember his ongoing feud with Sen. Richard Shelby?). But now, facing his toughest reelection in years, he's signing a much different tune. For McCain "that included keeping the A-10 flying - over the Pentagon's objections. In back-to-back budget requests, the Air Force proposed scrapping the popular but aging plane. McCain and other lawmakers fired back, arguing no existing platform would be a suitable replacement." Jeremy Herb and Connor O'Brien with the story: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc182dc3c1b53029324df27eded4df056534f5648b0fa4dfe1cc4

BAYH'S BIG MEMORY LAPSE- "Evan Bayh, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, said he can't remember with 'great specificity' the conversations he had with executives from his future employer during trips to New York City in 2010 as he prepared to leave office." Chelsea Schneider and Tony Cook with the Indianapolis Star: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc182528790f3080b21c44937249d28a51590235438c6102605b6

GOING TO THE CHAPEL- Rep. Eric Swalwell and Brittany Watts, from the N.Y. Times: "Mrs. Swalwell, 32, is the director of sales for the Ritz-Carlton resort in Half Moon Bay, Calif. She graduated from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. ... Mr. Swalwell, 35, is a Democratic member of Congress who represents California's 15th district and is the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Subcommittee on the Central Intelligence Agency. ... The couple were introduced in September 2015 by mutual friends whom the groom had set up 12 years before." With pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc182d5e4d5a3263877a0ba9d2ad0396538c1830bae87f5617849

--Mika Morse and Cole Berrier: "The couple work in the Washington office of Senator Brian E. Schatz, the Hawaii Democrat. She is a legislative counsel, and he is the administrative director." With pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8cad3eeaf81bc182bf93914cc04189e2dfef73d5741eb750de8082bb4ca9cca6

TODAY'S TRIVIA- Believe it or not, no one correctly guessed the answer to Friday's trivia question. Let's try this one more time: What is the largest number of members that have been seated in the House of Representatives? (Hint: It's not 435.) The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in tomorrow's Huddle. Get at me: hcaygle@politico.com

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