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The Evening CSIS: Scarborough Blocked, North Korea, Big Easy Field Research and More
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** Good Evening,
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Welcome to
The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please sign up here (http://bit.ly/ecs1s?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) .


** Are You Going to Scarborough Shoal?
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Despite earlier reports, it appears that Filipino fishermen are still being blocked from fishing within the Scarborough Shoal lagoon. New imagery from October 29 released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) shows a Chinese Coast Guard vessel anchored just inside the mouth of the lagoon, where it has been for most of the period since China seized the shoal in 2012, apparently blocking access. At least 17 Philippine fishing vessels were present along the exterior of Scarborough’s reef. The whole story (with original satellite imagery) is available on AMTI (https://amti.csis.org/china-scarborough-fishing/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) .


** Another Test
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According to US officials, North Korea is preparing to launch an intermediate-range missile in the next three days, making it the ninth such test in the last seven months. Reuters has the full story (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKBN12W4Q3?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) .

Dive deeper: This interactive report (http://beyondparallel.csis.org/dprk-provocations-likely-around-u-s-presidential-election/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) from CSIS’s Beyond Parallel shows that the number of North Korean provocations, usually high around US elections, have dramatically increased (http://beyondparallel.csis.org/dprk-provocations-likely-around-u-s-presidential-election/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) in recent cycles.


** The Nuclear Narrative
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CSIS’s Rebecca Hersman and Clark Murdock today released The Evolving US Nuclear Narrative (https://www.csis.org/analysis/evolving-us-nuclear-narrative-0?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) , a new report that tracks the historical narrative for US nuclear weapons as it has changed over the years. The report aims to articulate a simple and clear rationale for the US nuclear arsenal that speaks to the Air Force and Navy forces responsible for supporting and executing the US nuclear mission every day. Go to nuclearnarrative.csis.org (http://nuclearnarrative.csis.org/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) to explore more.


** In That Number
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** 11.1 million
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The number of Twitter followers that the next president will inherit when he or she takes ownership of the @POTUS Twitter handle.
Source: Whitehouse.gov, “The Digital Transition: How the Presidential Transition Works in the Social Media Age (https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2016/10/31/digital-transition-how-presidential-transition-works-social-media-age?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) .”


** Critical Quote
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** “Democracy is perpetuated and maintained by the youngest members of a society; as the younger generation learns about their government, begins to vote, and enters into government jobs, they shape the future of their nation’s democratic institutions.”
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—CSIS’s Daniel F. Runde authored a new commentary today, “Civic Education: Laying the Groundwork for Democracy (https://www.csis.org/analysis/civic-education-groundwork-democracy?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) .”


** One to Watch
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Rebecca Hersman (@rebeccahersman (https://twitter.com/rebeccahersman?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ) is the director of CSIS’s Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI). Rebecca previously served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for countering weapons of mass destruction. Rebecca coauthored a new report, The Evolving U.S. Nuclear Narrative (https://www.csis.org/analysis/evolving-us-nuclear-narrative-0?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) , released today.


** Optics
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(Photo credit: PHILIPPE HUGUEN/AFP/Getty Images.)
A combination made on November 1, 2016, shows two aerial views of the “jungle” camp in Calais, northern France, one (up) taken on August 16, 2016, and the second one (bottom) taken on November 1, 2016, after its demolition and evacuation. French demolition teams cleared the last shacks in the Calais Jungle on October 31, 2016, signaling the end of the camp.


** Highly Recommended
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“The Inevitability of Being Hacked (http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/10/we-built-a-fake-web-toaster-and-it-was-hacked-in-an-hour/505571/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ” by Andrew McGill via the Atlantic.


** CSIS Today
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CSIS’s Youth, Prosperity, and Security Initiative hosted “The Global Economy and 21st Century Work (http://csis.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=833ec271d60c6750d9c3baaac&id=7c0d0870b0&e=3369d0b43f&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ,” a briefing series on the results of a 30-country survey exploring millennial perspectives on security, governance, economics, work, education, health, civic participation, and values.


**
CSIS Tomorrow
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Join CSIS’s International Security Program at 9:00 a.m. for a Maritime Security Dialogue, “The Role of Space in Maritime Operations with Rear Admiral Christian Becker (https://www.csis.org/events/role-space-maritime-operations-rear-admiral-christian-becker?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) .”

CSIS’s Energy and National Security Program is hosting “Pathways for US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction: What Options are on the Table? (https://www.csis.org/events/pathways-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-what-options-are-table?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ” at 9:00 a.m. Tune in for the live webcast here.

Join CSIS’s International Security Program at 2:00 p.m. for “Semiconductors and the Future of the Tech Economy (https://www.csis.org/events/semiconductors-and-future-tech-economy?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ,” featuring Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker.

And join us at 5:00 p.m. for the book launch (https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-war-and-politics-battlefield-inside-washingtons-beltway?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) of On War and Politics: The Battlefield Inside Washington's Beltway by Maj. Gen Arnold Punaro, featuring Senator Sam Nunn, Senator John Warner, Brent Scowcroft, and Gen. James Jones.


**
This Town Tomorrow
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Join Johns Hopkins SAIS at 10:45 a.m. for “Afghanistan and the Asian Future (http://www.sais-jhu.edu/events-calendar?trumbaEmbed=view%3Devent%26eventid%3D208684068&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ,” featuring Hamdullah Mohib, Afghanistan’s ambassador to the United States.

And join the Atlantic Council at 12:00 p.m. for “ISIS: The Day After Defeat (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/upcoming-events/detail/isis-the-day-after-defeat?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) .”

CORRECTION: The Newseum event, “Considering the Future of Journalism (http://www.newseum.org/events-programs/rsvp3/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ” is on Tuesday, November 15, at 4:00 p.m.


** CSIS On Demand
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CSIS’s Brzezinski Institute on Geostrategy and CSIS’s Middle East Program hosted “The Arab World at a Crossroad (https://www.csis.org/events/arab-world-crossroad?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ” to assess where the Middle East is headed, with Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian foreign minister.


** Sounds
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Listen to Global Dispatches’ (http://www.globaldispatchespodcast.com/the-battle-for-mosul/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) take on the battle for Mosul.


** I Like It Like That
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Clickbait ads might become yesterday’s news, as big publishers are beginning to rethink (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/business/media/publishers-rethink-outbrain-taboola-ads.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) ways to gain a reader’s trust.


** Smiles
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You may have noticed that
The Evening CSIS took off for a couple of days last week. Well, I had to go down to New Orleans to conduct a bit of field research (and attend a board meeting at my alma mater Tulane University.)

My field research went, as you might imagine, extremely well.

The first thing I always do once I hit the streets of New Orleans in my rental car is dial up WWOZ on the radio. WWOZ is simply the heartbeat of the Crescent City. It is a listener-supported, non-commercial radio station for New Orleans and the surrounding community. Modern technology enables anyone to listen in to WWOZ using their fantastic app, anytime, anywhere, but it’s just out of this world and a treat to listen to the station while in New Orleans.

So, as soon as I tuned in, I heard, not to my surprise, but to my sheer delight, a magical, musical moment that only happens like this in New Orleans.

On an otherwise mellow, sunny, and breezy Big Easy afternoon, the local band Flow Tribe with its unique brand of second line brass and Cuban-Caribbean rhythms melded with R&B, soul and rock was in the WWOZ studio participating in a pledge drive. And somehow, spontaneously, the “Soul Queen of New Orleans,” Irma Thomas who just happened to be hanging out at the radio station too, decided to jam with Flow Tribe.

Together, Flow Tribe and the Queen launched into a blistering version of the Credence Clearwater Revival classic, “Proud Mary.” I couldn’t believe what I was hearing on the radio, this being the very first thing I heard as soon as I tuned in to WWOZ when I hit the ground. It blew me away and I smiled for many, many days about it. I’m still smiling. WWOZ is the greatest smile of all radio stations in my book and of course they captured the Flow Tribe/Thomas performance on video. So, you can see, right here (https://www.wwoz.org/152606-video-studio-pledge-drive-2016?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=67fd88a4b1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-67fd88a4b1-145367789) , just what I heard.


** Feedback
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I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)

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The Evening CSIS is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, Jackie Ramsay, and James Dunton.

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