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10/21/2016 08:11 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

CLEAN UP ON AISLE ONE- Donald Trump still won't say if he'll accept a loss on Election Day, raising a jarring possibility: Republican leaders might have to do it for him. Just don't expect House Speaker Paul Ryan or Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to weigh in until they absolutely have to, Burgess, Rachael and I report. The current plan: Avoid Trump at all costs and focus on protecting their delicate majorities.

But, if come Nov. 9 Trump refuses to concede a loss, it will be nearly impossible for Ryan and McConnell to stay on the sidelines. "I think it'll be a huge problem then. I think both the speaker and Mitch McConnell would have to come out very, very strongly in support of the result," Rep. Reid Ribble, a retiring member who is close to Ryan and long-time Trump critic, said Thursday.

Double-edged sword: "The GOP leaders know they can't keep their majorities if Trump voters stay home en masse, yet their candidates in blue states and swing House districts need distance to have a shot with independent voters. The view from the leadership offices is to comment only on what they can control - in other words, not Trump." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed60f4fcf12cadb798d4d658b5cee677caf4e5de59cb036ef92

Trump stays defiant: Even as GOP lawmakers struggle to respond to Trump's comments, the GOP nominee seems to be relishing the controversy. "Trump will accept the outcome on Nov. 8 - 'if I win,' the Republican presidential nominee declared Thursday, mocking critics who have scolded him for suggesting he may not concede the election to Hillary Clinton if he loses," reports Nolan McCaskill.

CHOOSE YOUR NEWS, SPEAKER RYAN EDITION- Sean Hannity is calling for a conservative hard-liner-Reps. Jim Jordan, Mark Meadows and Louie Gohmert top his list-to challenge Speaker Ryan for the top post in November. Hannity told the Washington Post Ryan is "a saboteur" who needs to be replaced. But it seems the House Freedom Caucus isn't all on the same page about challenging Ryan.

Exhibit A: All three "denied any interest in mounting bids to take the speaker's chair" on Thursday, Philip Wegmann writes for the Washington Examiner. But CNN reports Meadows saying the move to give Ryan the boot is "picking up steam" and the Hill's Scott Wong has an anonymous Freedom Caucus member saying it is "a pretty sure bet" someone will challenge Ryan.

IT'S GARLAND TIME (MAYBE) - Sen. Jeff Flake has always said the Senate should take up Merrick Garland's nomination to the Supreme Court if the White House looks like a lost cause. And now, it looks to be that time, Flake told Burgess in an interview. "I said if we were in a position like we were in in '96 and we pretty much knew the outcome that we ought to move forward. But I think we passed that awhile ago," Flake said. "If Hillary Clinton is president-elect then we should move forward with hearings in the lame duck. That's what I'm encouraging my colleagues to do." Read more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed657ea73b27b62713df7ef7848e7e2177f7fd27b91c974f44a

MONEY, MONEY, MONEY- House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy has doled out $23 million to fellow GOP candidates, incumbents and campaign committees this cycle, Bres reports. "McCarthy - who has raked in $30 million overall, second behind on Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) - has headlined events for candidates and incumbents in 75 cities in 29 different states. And the California Republican appeared at another 140 events in Washington, D.C., on behalf of more than 200 members and candidates."

Bres keeps it real: "With GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump tanking, House Republicans suddenly find their majority in trouble and are scrambling for every dollar." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed68d25b6c7d57b5c64aa0e50d78b8bd9bec38982de41c8fa40

Meanwhile, Ryan cut a $4 million check for the House GOP's campaign arm this month, the Washington Examiner's Susan Ferrechio reports. He's also helping out his state's party apparatus, donating another $250,000 to the Wisconsin GOP, bringing his total donation to state races to $1 million, reports Molly Beck for the Wisconsin State Journal.

HEY, HEY, LET'S DANCE FOR FRIDAY. Welcome to Oct. 21. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill.

THURSDAYS' MOST CLICKED- The Edward-Isaac Dovere story on Trump's debate-night comments about the outcome of the election.

TODAY IN CONGRESS- The House and Senate are out.

AROUND THE HILL- Emails going unanswered? Head down to Cap Lounge and have a beer. It's on me. (Just kidding about that last part.)

TRUMP REALLY 'STEPPED IN SOMETHING'- Outgoing Rep. Reid Ribble has never been a Trump fan but even he couldn't believe the GOP nominee's debate-night comments about keeping people "in suspense" over whether he'd accept the election results. "He stepped in something he didn't need to... the minute he said it, you just think 'I cannot believe they did not have you ready for this.' It's not like this was going to be a surprise question," Ribble told your Huddle host Thursday. "That was such a slow pitch, anybody could've knocked it out of the park."

SEN. THUNE, BASKETBALL SUPERSTAR- South Dakota Sen. John Thune doesn't just crush it on the Senate floor, turns out he's also pretty good on a basketball court. (We're guessing his height advantage doesn't hurt.) Just watch him sink this three-pointer while hanging out with some high school students this week: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed65c66df0bd3125176bcb1cf45eb6844142d634588be799171

SIREN: HASSAN UP 8 POINTS OVER AYOTTE-New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan has a 9-point lead over Sen. Kelly Ayotte, 48 percent to 39 percent, among undecided voters and an 8-point lead, 46 percent to 38 percent, among likely voters, according to a new WMUR poll. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed62b5c84c55534c5858441d284ddf5f9e1decd653e8a104dcd

9/11 FAMILIES STEAMED OVER JASTA 'FIX'- 9/11 victims and their families are furious over Secretary of State John Kerry's comments about looking for ways to "fix" the bill that passed Congress allowing victims of the attacks to sue Saudi Arabia. "We discussed ways to try to fix this in a way that respects and honors the needs and rights of victims of 9/11 but at the same time does not expose American troops...and American individuals who may be involved in another country to the potential of lawsuit for those activities," Kerry said after a meeting with the Saudi foreign minister Thursday.

The families' response: "What happened yesterday is outrageous," spokeswoman Terry Strada will say in a release going out later today. "The fact that Secretary Kerry would lead off his public remarks not by talking about ISIS or Iraq, but instead by assuring the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that he would work to destroy the 9/11 bill, speaks volumes."

DCCC CHAIRMAN: HOUSE DEMS 'ON OFFENSE'- Ben Ray Luján, chairman of House Democrats' campaign arm, says they're on offense heading into Election Day, especially after the tape came out catching Trump making lewd comments about grabbing women. "We're seeing Trump's impact everywhere," he told Henry Jackson. "Especially after the revelation of the "Access Hollywood' tape, we feel very confident that we will pick up more seats than what was originally anticipated." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed67427c50a7a884c4a8597a1d25715e19e224b586573832080

Related: DCCC outraises NRCC again-The House GOP's campaign arm is out with its September numbers, raising $9.8 million, less than half of what House Democrats brought in, and ending the month with $46.6 million cash on hand. Huddle told you earlier this week DCCC raised $21 million last month, ending September with $45.5 million cash on hand.

NEW THIS MORNING: Sen. James Lankford and Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart are sending a letter to President Obama today slamming efforts to ease sanctions on Cuba. Read it: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed6fd7a3fbccef31b01ae45d616a0d0017d640a7181c250e9a7

GRASSLEY: VOTES THERE FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE- McConnell has already said he doesn't think the votes are there to pass criminal justice reform in the lame duck but Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley disagrees. "Grassley said Thursday he believes a criminal justice reform bill with bipartisan support was denied a final vote and likely passage this year because of skittishness from Republican lawmakers up for re-election," reports the Des Moines Register. "'If we could've got this up for a vote, we would've had 65 to 70 votes,' he said. 'But you've got to get it up, and the leader decides when it comes up.'" More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed6d9cd0e8293c85ea8fdba82cbfb94734a8ccca45c6af0231e

BUELLER...BUELLER...BUELLER... Ben Stein is back, reprising his infamous role in "Ferris Bueller's Day Off," but this time for an ad supporting Sen. Chuck Grassley. Kevin Robillard has more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d00c5fccd832fed61c3b3fcd25a85d03806c628b22f01eb271f68655ca2d5e8e

'CHECKS AND BALANCES' AD OUT-- Democrats have already said they expect many down-ballot Republicans to start positioning themselves as a check on a potential President Clinton (essentially admitting they don't think Trump will win). Take this new pro-Ayotte ad from the Chamber of Commerce, reported by CNN's Dana Bash: "America's future is far from certain. But no matter who the next president is, New Hampshire needs a strong voice in the U.S. Senate," the narrator says.

Possibly other ads to follow: "A source with the Chamber tells CNN that the group chose to air this kind of ad in New Hampshire first because it is the 'most needed,' but noted there could be others to follow elsewhere to help Republicans fighting to maintain control of the Senate -- a cause even more dire as GOP hopes for winning the White House fade," Bash reports.

BAD NEWS FOR BAYH-- "Evan Bayh says that his Indianapolis condominium has long been his home, and that he has spent "lots and lots" of time there since deciding to run for his old Senate seat. But a copy of his schedule shows Bayh did not stay overnight there once during his last year in office in 2010," reports Brian Slodysko for the AP.

DEPARTURE LOUNGE-- Monique Waters is leaving her job as press secretary for Sen. Cory Booker for a new gig as senior director of corporate communications at EverFi, a digital startup. Waters starts her new job in November.

THURSDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER- Eric Feldman was the first to guess that Rep. Tom Lantos was the only Holocaust survivor to serve in Congress.

TODAY'S TRIVIA- Eric with today's question: Incoming Senate Democratic leader, Sen. Chuck Schumer, lived for more than three decades in a Washington, DC rowhouse with two other members of Congress. Who were his roommates? The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in Monday's Huddle. Get at me: hcaygle@politico.com

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