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10/18/2016 07:51 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

With assistance from Daniel Lippman

AYOTTE'S TIGHT-ROPE WALK- Sen. Kelly Ayotte has one of the toughest races this year and it goes beyond the impact of Donald Trump. Sure, he's certainly put a wrench in her campaign-for months she's had to explain why she supported him without endorsing him, saying he is "absolutely" a role model before walking that back and finally disavowing him earlier this month. But she's also facing possibly the best Democratic Senate recruit this cycle, Gov. Maggie Hassan, and home-state independent voters who are tough to win over.

Burgess reports from West Lebanon: "To complete her high-wire act on Nov. 8, and perhaps keep the GOP's fragile Senate majority, Ayotte must convince voters simultaneously that she can work with Democrats but isn't deserting conservatives. Her most immediate task, though, is navigating the fallout over her decision to ditch Trump. 'What she did was cowardly and spineless and a political miscalculation,' said Republican state lawmaker Dan Tamburello."

Despite her disavowal, "Ayotte even says Trump still has a chance to carry New Hampshire, even as his brutal poll numbers suggest otherwise. For her sake, he'd better: A blowout win by Hillary Clinton would crush Ayotte's chances. So as she opposes Trump, she makes clear she isn't asking the same of the state's Republicans." The Burgess deep-dive, well worth a read: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f761b93c2554e0b07e8f64257c861c00623ef0b32c2c2861c7

HOW TO SAVE THE HOUSE? BUILD A FIREWALL- At least that's what the GOP is trying to do in the final weeks of the election, pouring millions of dollars into pro-Republican districts that weren't even in play for Democrats until recently. Rachael and Jake with the story: The vast majority of money from the American Action Network and its sister PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, is still being funneled toward competitive races, "but the pair of groups is also now engaged in a pre-emptive attempt to stanch the bleeding caused by Trump and preserve Speaker Paul Ryan's historically large majority."

ALL OVER THE MAP: "They're dropping $500,000 on TV ads in deep-red Utah to protect Rep. Mia Love, whose Mormon-heavy district has recoiled from Trump's vulgar comments about women. They're spending another $700,000 in Tucson, Arizona, to protect freshman Rep. Martha McSally, a retired Air Force colonel who has comfortably led her Democratic challenger all year. And they're working to shore up conservative-leaning districts in the Central Valley of California, western Colorado, upstate New York and Michigan." Their story: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f71967b00d955f719e7fb306f64bb6cf015cca1807ea5cc861

RYAN FOR PRESIDENT, 2020? "When asked by ABC News' Tom Llamas before a campaign event tonight in Green Bay, Wisconsin, whether he believed Ryan wanted him to win the race to the White House, Trump responded, 'Well, maybe not, because maybe he wants to run in four years or maybe he doesn't know how to win. ...I know I'm in his territory and they are all screaming for Trump,' Trump said, referring to the fact that his campaign event was in Ryan's home state." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f7fa1fbb9df33525988e9c08aefe5ae284f0a40429e59bfe9c

Wisconsin has never been too hot for Trump-he was walloped by Sen. Ted Cruz in the GOP primary there-and his near-daily attacks on their favorite son isn't helping anything. Katie Glueck: "The focus on bashing Ryan in the homestretch of the election isn't helping in a state that's been slow to embrace Trump, despite support from Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, a former Wisconsin GOP chair himself who has defended Trump through most of the candidate's controversies."

'A little more angry': "'There's no question, anytime Donald Trump takes after Paul Ryan, it just makes the people in Wisconsin a little more angry at him,' said Brandon Scholz, a longtime GOP operative." Read more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f73ad633162f015979b294d0c8a920b731aa88ffa76509c69d

WELCOME TO TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED- The New York Times roundup of the most competitive House races.

TODAY IN CONGRESS- The House and Senate are out.

THE BIPARTISAN ATTACK THAT CUTS BOTH WAYS- RealClearPolitics' James Arkin on how the "Washington insider" attack works for both parties: "In Missouri, Democrat Jason Kander is surging against Republican Roy Blunt, focusing much of his fire on the incumbent's longtime political career and the fact that his wife and children are registered lobbyists. Meanwhile, Indiana Rep. Todd Young has closed a large gap in the polls against former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh as Republicans have seized on multiple news reports about Bayh's work in Washington after leaving the upper chamber."

"Both races are close three weeks before Election Day, and both are crucial to determining which party gains or retains control of the Senate." Read more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f71b9ea5ae0f21f841c95cc7ebdad61cc2f29f56439e67b82a

RUBIO: TRUMP IS A 'HORRIFYING CHOICE'- Talk about awkward: During Monday's debate with Rep. Patrick Murphy, Sen. Marco Rubio called Trump a "horrifying choice" for GOP nominee while still defending his support for the real estate mogul on Election Day, report Kristen Clark and Jeremy Wallace for the Miami Herald.

And this: Rubio accuses Murphy of "groping" former girlfriend- "Near the end of the debate, Rubio grew frustrated with Murphy's repeated insinuations that Rubio doesn't support women and ...referenced an old photo of the 33-year-old Murphy, which shows him with his arm around a woman, appearing to grab her breast. ...'You're the one that posted a picture four years ago on Facebook of you groping a woman. That's inappropriate behavior,' Rubio said. ... After the debate, Murphy campaign spokeswoman Galia Slayen said in an email that the photo was of 'a former girlfriend at dinner,' and she called the attack 'an act of desperation' by Rubio."

Related: Rubio says if elected, he'll serve his full six-year term in the Senate "god willing" but declined multiple times to rule out a presidential run. Kevin Robillard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f77c065895aee6a58542d961907d88fe3d25d7fbe734f4f657

DEMS WANT GOP TO DO MORE TO DISMISS "RIGGED" CLAIMS- "Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid accused Republican congressional leaders of being complicit with Donald Trump's claims that the election is 'rigged,' saying top GOP lawmakers need to do more to repudiate their presidential nominee. ...So far, [Senate Majority Leader Mitch] McConnell has not addressed Trump's claims of election rigging. A spokesman for Ryan, AshLee Strong, issued a statement over the weekend." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f76d59846d3da2377f155fc500606465f81b2ad7bd033ae700

POLITICO Magazine read: "How Trump's extremism could help down-ballot Republicans," by Jack Edelson and Frank Gonzalez: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f7c4f83bc1dcec918853c298a9ebb730028054e8df56e5ac91

McCAIN: GOP 'UNITED' AGAINST CLINTON SUPREME COURT NOMINEE- Campaigning for Sen. Pat Toomey Monday, Sen. John McCain told a Philadelphia radio station why Republicans should hold onto the Senate: They'd "be united against" any Supreme Court nominee Hillary Clinton puts up as president. A McCain spokeswoman later tried to walk those comments back. CNN's Chris Massie: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f70f5811968d47ea8ba0e9470b28bd49302d7e8422a8bacb24 And later, McCain ran from a reporter asking follow-up questions, saying he was late for a speaking engagement, and slipped out the backdoor after: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f7f17dcd234c35db5af65fc59b15bbcf87aca590d417601034

YOU KNOW WHAT THEY SAY ABOUT BEST LAID PLANS... "Since sweeping into office atop the 2010 Republican wave, Toomey...has worked assiduously to establish bona fides as a moderate and create the possibility of winning reelection in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 1 million," Kevin reports from Harrisburg. But Trump could undo all of that.

"Toomey's Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty, is doing her best to erase the difference between Toomey and Trump, while Toomey hopes keeping his distance from Trump can protect him from fallout from a top-of-the-ticket meltdown. 'Look, if the question were a referendum on Donald Trump, I'd vote no,' Toomey said. "But the alternative is somebody who's a serial liar.'" More for Campaign Pro subscribers: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f712524560b72123e18132f75e93e0eb2825d19aeea1769ed3

GRAPHIC OF THE DAY: CAPITOL HILL'S REVOLVING DOOR- "Last year, the 64 one-time lawmakers who sat on boards pulled down an average $357,182, twice what they earned when taxpayers paid their salaries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg." The biggest earner? Former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who brought in $2 million last year as managing director of Moelis & Co. See the graphic: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa659bc4b6e430f77a02e99992b5e1604abf092255f07530d85724e2e00ad80f

ISSA TIES HIMSELF TO OBAMA- Yes, you read that right. In the race of his life against unexpected Democratic challenger Doug Applegate, GOP gadfly Darrell Issa is touting his bipartisan bona fides. "While he's refused to revoke his endorsement of Trump, he is evidently anxious about being associated with him. New mailers sent out by his campaign showcase Issa's alliance with Obama to pass legislation that established a bill of rights for survivors of sexual assault," reports the Huffington Post's Laura Barron-Lopez from Oceanside.

GLOVES OFF IN OHIO- "U.S. Sen. Rob Portman and Democratic rival Ted Strickland largely put the issues aside Monday night during their second debate, choosing instead to focus on attacking each other," reports Jeremy Pelzer for the Plain Dealer.

ARRIVAL LOUNGE-- Michelle Mittler has been hired as director of scheduling for Sen. Chuck Schumer, starting Oct. 24. She was with House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer until Oct. 14.

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER- Marshal Shemtob was the first to correctly guess that the House of Representatives temporarily had 437 members when Alaska and Hawaii were each given one member.

TODAY'S TRIVIA- Marshal with today's question: "As an alumnus myself, which United States senator graduated from Scarsdale High School?" The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in tomorrow's Huddle. Get at me: hcaygle@politico.com

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