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10/26/2016 07:52 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

IS IT OVER YET? GOP strategists know that Donald Trump's campaign collapse isn't good for keeping a strong House majority but are hoping the bombastic GOP nominee has finally hit rock bottom and can't pull the House down further, Rachael and Theo report. "There's a lot more close races than we want to see," said a senior House Republican with ties to leadership and the NRCC. "But I don't feel a sense of panic. There's a sense that we've stopped the bleeding. I still think we're talking about double-digit losses, but not 20-plus like I worried about a couple weeks ago."

'Chaotic' House landscape: Democrats have been working to expand the map all over but are still spending in vulnerable GOP districts they haven't been able to put away, like Reps. Bob Dold of Illinois, Rod Blum of Iowa and Cresent Hardy of Nevada. "The result: a chaotic, outsize House landscape packed with seats that could tip either way on Election Day, depending on how still-high numbers of undecided voters break in the final 13 days of a fast-moving race." Rachael and Theo with the story: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879fab94d89bf8be1cfd516779c2093d1af92e91ecd3812e5e60

THE GOP'S LAST SENATE STAND-The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC with close ties to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is plowing $25 million into six key races, "a last-ditch attempt to stop Donald Trump from dragging the entire GOP down with him," reports Alex Isenstadt. "Buying commercial time at this late a stage in an election year does not come cheap. With so many candidates and political groups looking to invest, ad rates are expensive. 'This isn't a cheap date,' [Senate Leadership Fund President Steven] Law said."

'Guns blazing': The group will be spending about $7.5 million in Nevada to boost Joe Heck, $5 million in Pennsylvania to prop up Sen. Pat Toomey and $4 million in Indiana to try and stop Evan Bayh's comeback bid. The super PAC will also be spending more than $3 million in North Carolina to help Sen. Richard Burr, $2.6 million in New Hampshire for Kelly Ayotte and $2.3 million in Missouri for Sen. Roy Blunt. "[W]e're going to go out guns blazing," Law said. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879f2165180d561ac3e76a93ccbebdcdc7250f8edd4732fcabc6

In related news, Trump's campaign doesn't have anymore big fundraising events on the schedule for the Republican party, "a serious blow to the party's get-out-the-vote operations with less than two weeks to go until Election Day," Sean Sullivan, Matea Gold and John Wagner report for the Washington Post. "Unlike Clinton, who has an extensive turnout operation of her own, Trump and many other GOP candidates down the ballot are relying heavily on the Republican National Committee to bring voters to the polls." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879f15ec6dc6416009e7230a78ddeec2b03dd4d3ee5f0b9e94c1

ON THE FLIP SIDE... After months of avoiding hammering Senate Republicans for their ties to Trump, Hillary Clinton is working in lockstep with Senate Democrats more than ever before. "The shift in messaging - Clinton had previously argued that Trump is a different kind of Republican, even as down-ballot Democrats were trying to tie their opponents to the GOP nominee - comes as the Democratic presidential nominee has established a comfortable enough lead in her own race to divert some of her resources and attention," BuzzFeed's Tarini Parti and Ruby Cramer report.

Senate Democrats' campaign arm recently shared talking points with Clinton's campaign "that highlight each candidate's closing message and attack lines against their Republican opponents" and Priorities USA is "switching out some of the Clinton spots for ones that also incorporate Senate candidates." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879fafeb5010a35646543629dbb8ca9e73c03f63dce0bcb9f4a5

PUT UP OR SHUT UP- House lawmakers close to Speaker Paul Ryan are moving to quiet dissent from the party's hard-right flank over Ryan's relationship with Trump and what that means for his job after Election Day. "Multiple House Republicans say if someone wants to challenge the speaker they are entitled to make their case ...But some are frustrated that those who aren't happy with Ryan won't actually run but instead could derail him by casting protest votes in January," report Deirdre Walsh and Manu Raju for CNN.

'The longest of longshots': Ryan does have at least one challenger for speaker-Paul Nehlen, his primary opponent. Nehlen told CNN he plans to run for speaker (remember, you don't have to be a lawmaker to vie for the job), saying "he would pressure the House Freedom Caucus in particular to revolt against the GOP speaker. ... Nehlen, however, is the longest of long shots, and it's almost certain many House Republicans won't take his bid seriously." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879f4e38d2c36c45f54e5be856a7d14f9bae21fa0a338c20b7c1

HEY HEY, WELCOME TO WEDNESDAY, OCT. 26. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. I'm Heather, back in the Huddle cockpit after a short jaunt across the country. Guys, I can't even talk about what happened with the Cubbies last night. Onward, to Game Two.

TODAY IN CONGRESS- It's all quiet on the Capitol front.

MONEY, MONEY, MONEY- When it comes to the Senate, Democrats are putting up a cadre of candidates rolling in the dough, in some cases much wealthier than their GOP opponents. Seung Min: "According to a POLITICO review of personal financial disclosures, five of the Democratic candidates in seven key Senate battlegrounds - Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Florida - appear to be wealthier than the Republican in the race. And this year, the politics of a candidate's wealth has become an issue in some Senate races, including for Bayh in Indiana and Richard Burr in North Carolina." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879f5e3e9927a1732205e7c59ba18a89e76cd54e8fa7bf8dd886

DEMS DISAGREE OVER FLORIDA STRATEGY- Tensions are flaring after Democrats' decision to pull out of the Florida Senate race, which many still believe is in striking distance. Outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and others are pushing to go all out and unseat GOP golden boy Marco Rubio while they have chance, but incoming Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and the party's campaign arm say it just doesn't make sense. They argue that for the cost of advertising in Florida with its high-dollar media markets, you could buy ads in three other key states: North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana.

The case for Florida: "But Reid and other Democrats believe that defeating Rubio would be the ultimate Election Day trophy for Democrats, given his national stature and the reelection threat he could post to a potential President Hillary Clinton in 2020," report Burgess, Marc Caputo and Kevin Robillard.

Even Bill Clinton is involved: "Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) has been pleading with former President Bill Clinton to get Democrats more interested in the Florida contest, sources familiar with the matter said. Bill Clinton himself believes Democrats gave up on the race prematurely and is urging Florida donors to support Murphy." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879f5c0cf83813629252ddd24984292316bff742d094adb36924

McCAUL'S TEXAS TWO-STEP- House Homeland Security Chairman Mike McCaul won't rule out challenging Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 and why would he at this point, anyway? Brent Griffiths: "'I think any elected official, you don't close off your options,' McCaul said at a Texas Tribune event in the state's capital [Tuesday]."

Big brood at home: "'I have several options potentially in front of me, and I'm not going to say no to any of them whether it be: serving an administration in a national security post, whether it be, possibly when I am term-limited on Homeland, going to chair the Foreign Relations committee or going home. ... I have five kids.'" More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879f9be31b07e7f8eece5678bd48b7a0fc1e3d794462a96ca8f8

A SECRET BALLOT- Do voters deserve to know who their potential future senators and representatives are voting for? Not if you ask Nevada Senate candidate Joe Heck, who pulled his support for Trump earlier this month. "No, I don't. It's a personal - it's a personal decision who you vote for. It's a secret ballot. Just like your ballot is a secret ballot," he told a Reno Gazette-Journal reporter. More from the Hill's Cristina Marcos: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879f8d80ccce993ae4910edb48d87d8021995ebf8e7b8b4bbcb4

The Las Vegas Review-Journal has Heck and his opponent, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, pretty much tied in its latest poll. "Cortez Masto leads Heck by a 45-44 percent margin, well within the poll's margin of error. ...A prior Review-Journal poll conducted in September showed Heck ahead 47-45 percent, also within that poll's margin of error," reports Colton Lochhead. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879fac6d310c00a210ab11d725b0e5bb733bf50be4ada1e38fda

CAN YOU HELP A PAL OUT? Some vulnerable Senate Republicans in states where Clinton is leading are trying a new strategy: pulling back their attacks on the Democratic nominee. "In Ohio, Sen. Rob Portman's (R) campaign has recruited people at Clinton rallies to sign up for pro-Portman yard signs and has touted his union endorsements," report Alexander Bolton and Amie Parnes for the Hill. And in Pennsylvania, Sen. Pat Toomey "has released a new ad highlighting the praise he's received from Clinton's running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who has touted Toomey's 'seriousness, intellect and civility.'" More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879fac45a090a02a40efdb9567c2893516290fcd13a9bbda7078

TODAY IN FREEDOM CAUCUS- Rep. Dave Brat told the Washington Examiner "he's confident Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, will step down as chairman of the group and Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C. will easily win the position." Philip Wegmann: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84ed929bc446879fa68df5c7168892bb050c74ea0ede725727cd8796c83601c2

TUESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER- James Atkinson was the first to guess Rep. Glenn Cunningham was the lawmaker who got stuck in Montana while on a fishing trip because the CB&Q railroad discontinued the train he had bought round trip tickets on. I mean there are worse places to get stranded, right?

TODAY'S TRIVIA- James with today's question: Name a sitting senator who was the only Republican elected in his freshman class? (Hint: There might be more than one.) The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in tomorrow's Huddle: hcaygle@politico.com

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