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10/27/2016 08:00 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

WILL THEY OR WON'T THEY? With all the talk lately that the House Freedom Caucus might try to oust (or at least challenge) Speaker Paul Ryan, here's the truth: the group of 40-ish conservative hardliners is totally divided and there's no organized strategy on what to do next. Some members are "flirting with mutiny," others are considering quitting the group if it tries to oust its second speaker in barely a year and a third faction wants to use the threat as leverage for rules changes, Rachael reports this morning.

One big problem: The HFC doesn't yet have a viable alternative who could round up 218 votes for the speakership. "If you want to kill the king, fine, but you have to have someone in the wings to replace the king," one Freedom Caucus source told Rachael.

And even if they did, several of its members like Ryan: "'In general, as conservative as I am, I have consistently been supportive of our leadership because I know from the inside the equation they're dealing with: It creates an appearance that they aren't trying hard when that isn't the case,' said Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), a caucus member who backs Ryan. 'New leadership will only be doomed to the same scenario. There is no one in the world that can change that.'" More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a61cbc875ccc7988a79d184c8d5388a10ab3713d010f8359dee

Trump's thoughts: "Mr. Trump, who has lashed out at the speaker for being critical of him, has privately said that Mr. Ryan should pay a price for his disloyalty, according to two people close to Mr. Trump," report Jeremy Peters and Maggie Haberman for the New York Times.

NEW THIS AM: DEMOCRATIC PAC REPORTS RECORD HAUL- Democratic-backed Senate Majority PAC raised $19.3 million in the first 19 days of October, "the best fundraising period for the leadership-aligned group in its history, officials said Thursday morning," Burgess reports. "Senate Majority PAC along with labor and environmental groups and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are set to run significantly more ads down the home stretch than Republicans due to early ad reservations." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a614bcd6c8851f6a7d22f69fedb7c31b3f4649824f119e84dd4

CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG? It's been clear for a long time that Sen. Chuck Schumer would be the next Democratic leader. What's still up in the air, as it has been for more than 18 months? Who will hold the No. 2 Democratic spot in the new Congress, current Whip Dick Durbin or Sen. Patty Murray. "With leadership elections just a few weeks away, Murray is refusing to rule out any of her options, even as Durbin suggests he's got the job locked up," Burgess and Seung Min report.

A little HELP from my friends: If Murray doesn't challenge Durbin, she could still move up in the leadership ranks, filling the No. 3 spot left by Schumer's ascension, and lead a powerful committee like Appropriations or the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. But Sen. Bernie Sanders, "who is itching to wield his newfound influence that he gained during his presidential bid, continues to signal interest in the HELP gavel, though he is in line to become chairman of the Senate Budget Committee should Democrats come back into power." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a61cea31f83c0feb3f059cdcddfcb63a2d73d49f0345167f7bb

WHITE HOUSE WATCH: CHIEF OF STAFF- Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta is emerging as the top choice for White House chief of staff, if only for a year, even though he doesn't want the job, reports Annie Karni. Other alternatives: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, former Joe Biden chief of staff Ron Klain, and policy adviser Jake Sullivan.

"The chief sets the tone of the president's relationship with Congress, runs the day-to-day operations at the White House and spends more time with the president than any other staffer. ... But in private conversations, Podesta, 67, has told friends he has no interest in going back to the 12-hours-a-day, seven-days-a-week younger man's gig he already performed for Bill Clinton almost two decades ago." Annie with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a61935b62f486da9092fe59af77e2039d31469be838bfa6833b

Related: Clinton vows to reach out to GOP Hill leaders if elected. Gabriel Debenedetti: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a612dee67472ee1512b3df64b3718f05a82b794cf9443489ed0

12 DAYS LEFT, WE GOT THIS. Welcome to Oct. 27. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. The Cubbies won Game Two in a 5-1 victory Wednesday! They face the Indians again tomorrow in Chicago.

WEDNESDAY'S MOST CLICKED- Rachael and Theo's story about the latest on the battle for the House.

TODAY IN CONGRESS- The House is out. The Senate meets in a pro-forma session at 10:30 a.m.

LESS BANG FOR THEIR BUCK-With the $25 million last-minute cash infusion from the Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans are quickly narrowing the spending gap with Democrats over the battle for the Senate. But because they're reserving ads so late in the cycle, they're getting much less bang for their buck, report Seung Min and Burgess.

Crunch the numbers: "All told, Democrats are set to spend about $65.6 million on air in the final two weeks of the 2016 Senate campaign in the six main Senate battleground states - Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Missouri and Nevada. On the other side, Republicans have $59.2 million in television reservations as of Wednesday afternoon, according to one person tracking media buys." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a6105324eb17bb984fd052669d5e22f7da6d987846bcc906052

ON THE HOUSE GOP FRONT- The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main House GOP super PAC, has more than $15 million to spend in the closing weeks of the election, even without homestretch help from billionaires Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, reports CNN's Theodore Schleifer. "The Congressional Leadership Fund says it will report having raised $5.4 million in just the first 20 days of October, a fundraising rush that the group attributes to its blessing from House Speaker Paul Ryan." The largest donation in October? Blackstone chief Stephen Schwarzman, who gave $1.7 million. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a6134586ca9faafa820cb5917065318862056e26e9e57244601

MURPHY ALL-IN FOR MURPHY- Rep. Patrick Murphy is guaranteeing a $1 million loan in his effort to unseat Sen. Marco Rubio after Democrats pulled out of Florida and top leaders clashed over the strategy. Marc Caputo: "The independently wealthy Murphy went forward with the loan as fellow Florida Democrats began openly criticizing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority super PAC for reneging on a promise to spend $16 million more in badly needed TV ads for their party's nominee." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a617ba3418246eaaf39b8bc5073ec6b6314c75d536461c67f1a

SOMETHING'S FISHY- Remember Jesse Benton, the former campaign manager for Sens. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul who was convicted of felony political corruption? Well turns out he's still active in Paul's Senate race against Lexington Mayor Jim Gray and that's after he was accused this week "of trying to funnel illicit donations from a foreign source into the presidential race," reports John Cheves for the Lexington Herald-Leader.

Nothing to see here: "Neither Benton nor officials at America's Liberty PAC in Warrenton, Va., would say this week what he does for the group. The PAC pays Benton $3,000 to $5,000 a month through the political consulting business, Titan Strategies, that he founded last year in Louisville, keeping his name out of their finance reports. ... Benton is married to a niece of Rand Paul and a granddaughter of Paul's father, Ron, a former Texas congressman who ran for president four years ago." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a61066f02eb8a2fe4d0cd396bde61028f5219b80eab6d225227

SUNS OUT, GUNS OUT- Burgess went digging through the John Podesta WikiLeak email dump Wednesday and found a gem: Bernie Sanders sunning himself during a DSCC retreat. Check it out: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a611f6b5578b66041597ad8f98033fa1f0b13ad35d085e8d2b4

THE SUBURBAN STRUGGLE- Donald Trump is wildly unpopular in several suburban swing districts around the country, making Chicago-area GOP Rep. Bob Dold "part of a small and embattled group of House Republicans who could outrun Trump by double digits and still come up short on election night," Theo reports. "The endangered Republicans are running furiously to the center, emphasizing their opposition to Trump and highlighting bipartisan policy accomplishments in Congress." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a6182e1f2ab5d50b66a3ee4e75c444a2787f16670722401db6a

CRUZ IS BACK- For anybody who'd worried that Sen. Ted Cruz had gone soft after the presidential campaign, worry not Huddle readers. The conservative rabble rouser is back and now he's warning that Republicans could try to block a Democratic president's Supreme Court nominee indefinitely. Burgess: "'There is certainly long historical precedent for a Supreme Court with fewer justices. ...That's a debate that we are going to have,' Cruz said, in remarks first reported by The Washington Post." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a61c6cf4b9e5926a45f9de222a3d4a136ecdbed92dd53557ed3

CHAFFETZ: EXPECT YEARS OF CLINTON PROBES-House Oversight Chairman Jason Chaffetz said the investigations into Hillary Clinton won't end if she wins the White House, calling it a "target-rich environment" to the Washington Post's Dave Weigel. "Even before we get to Day One, we've got two years worth of material already lined up. She has four years of history at the State Department, and it ain't good," he said. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a613bd2c8bd66b644f72dfab8ec7f8fc0f65e6b4997abcd969f By the way, Rachael reported this in a story more than a month ago: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a613af5fd6ae1a904e9e662f9bfd65189abd5936673c249ee62

ANOTHER TRUMP FLIP-FLOPPER: Speaking of Chaffetz, he tweeted Wednesday that he was going to vote for Donald Trump but made clear he wasn't planning to "defend or endorse" the GOP nominee. (Huddle note: A vote seems like the ultimate endorsement, whether you want to say so or not.) Chaffetz is one of six Republican members of Congress who have recommitted to Trump after pulling their support, reports Cristiano Lima. The other flip-floppers: Sens. Mike Crapo, Deb Fischer and John Thune and Reps. Scott Garrett and Bradley Byrne.

DEMOCRATS ALREADY LOOKING TO 2020- Election Day 2016 is still two weeks away but some Democratic operatives are already planning the battle for 2020, and that includes kicking off attacks on prominent GOP hopefuls like Mike Pence, Sen. Marco Rubio and House Speaker Paul Ryan. "The preliminary efforts are a sensitive task not associated with Clinton's campaign or party leadership," reports Gabriel Debenedetti.

"Yet they're far enough along that three lanes are taking shape as Democratic groups track footage of the trio, prep ads and push lines of messaging: Their short-term goals are to make 'Mike Pence' synonymous with avoiding reality, to hang Trump around Rubio's neck like an anchor, and to drive sharp wedges between Ryan and other GOP factions." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a61f9ae3107bcab8298ac727d9f8ba8f12e7f73bccf8ec59ad2

BAYH LINKED TO CONTROVERSIAL INSURANCE COMPANY- "Evan Bayh, the former Democratic senator from Indiana and current Senate candidate, has at least $1 million in holdings with a Bermuda-based insurance company, Athene, that has a business model that a class action lawsuit is challenging as a bait-and-switch scam," report Ryan Grim, Ben Walsh and Zach Carter for the Huffington Post.

How it works: "Athene's business plan, the suit claims, is to buy up the annuities of retirees that had previously been invested in bonds and blue chip stocks, and instead pump their money into the risky bets of a private equity firm. That firm turns out to be Apollo Global Management \u2015 where Bayh is a highly paid senior adviser \u2015 which actually owns Athene, so if the gamble pays off, Athene's parent company gets rich. If it flops, the retirees take the hit." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6133b1cf3ba73a616f3f8657faf7bdab73fc2d9add5feff46d2d4b7b9a245692

WEDNESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER- Jon Deuser was the first to guess that Sen. Bob Corker was the solo Republican elected in his freshman class.

TODAY'S TRIVIA- Christopher Colford with today's question: The 1924 conventions were the first to be broadcast on radio - and, for all 103 ballots, radio listeners heard the colorful roll call of the states lead off with Alabama, every time, casting its votes unanimously for the same candidate. His name became synonymous with the deadlock. Who was that candidate, and what office did he hold? The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in tomorrow's Huddle: hcaygle@politico.com

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