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The Importance of the Union Vote for Democrats
Nate Silver finds that union voters and the union-household voters improved President Obama's margin over Sen. John McCain in 2008 by approximately 4.8%.

He concludes: "Republican efforts to decrease the influence of unions -- while potentially worthwhile to their electoral prospects in the long-term -- could contribute to a backlash in the near-term, making union members even more likely to vote Democratic and even more likely to turn out. If, for instance, the share of union households voting for Democrats was not 60 percent but closer to 70 percent, Republicans would have difficulty winning presidential elections for a couple of cycles until the number of union voters diminished further."


Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com
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