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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com )


POPPING IN IOWA - PALIN FADES - The Des Moines Register's newest Iowa Poll finds former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on a (slight) downward trajectory among likely Republican voters in the first-in-the-nation caucus state: "While a solid majority of this group still views Palin positively, the intensity has waned as Palin has become a regular national media presence but done little to cultivate a support base in Iowa. ... Palin's favorability has slipped among Iowa Republicans who say they will vote in 2012 to 65 percent in the poll taken this month from 71 percent in November 2009. ... The new poll shows fewer likely voters who are Republicans view Palin very favorably, 18 percent, than the 27 percent who did so in the Register's November 2009 poll." http://bit.ly/g5ZpUk


2012 TALKER - "President Obama looking a lot less beatable" - POLITICO's Jonathan Martin: "Just four months after posting historic election gains, Republicans are experiencing a reality check about 2012: President Barack Obama is going to be a lot tougher to defeat than he looked late last year. ... The view among senior Republicans is not that Obama is a sure bet or that the GOP nomination is not worth having. ... But there is an unmistakable sense among Republicans that the breezy predictions of Obama turning out to be the next Jimmy Carter were premature. 'The people that are sitting around saying, "He's definitely going to be a one-term president. It's going to be easy to take him out," they're obviously political illiterates - political idiots, let me be blunt,' said former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in an interview."


MORE - "Others mulling a White House pointed to Obama's response to what the president himself called the midterm 'shellacking.' [South Dakota Sen. John] Thune, who said last week that he wouldn't seek the GOP nomination next year, praised Obama as a 'very shrewd politician' to the Associated Press, noting that the president had moved the middle by supporting the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts. ... While noting it was still early in the campaign, [Chris] Christie highlighted another unmatched advantage Obama enjoys. 'He proved he could win once, so that's one more time than anybody else who has run,' said the first-term New Jersey governor." http://politi.co/gYsHgu


SCORE EXCLUSIVE - RISING TIDE LIFTS GARON: Tim Garon, the former Southeast regional political director for the NRCC, is joining Rising Tide Media Group as its newest partner. Garon oversaw 19 GOP pickups across 11 states for the NRCC last year, bringing the endangered Southern Democrat to the point of extinction in the House of Representatives. The 30-year-old Garon is a veteran of the Republican State Leadership Committee, where he was a regional political director managing half the country, and the Virginia Republican Party, where he was political director. Garon turned down offers from two 2012 campaigns - one asking him to run Iowa, the other to run New Hampshire - in order to sign up with Rising Tide. He joins two other partners at the firm: Jonathan Poe, the former NRCC deputy political director, and Sonny Scott, the GOP media consultant with a long track record of winning in the South.


As Herman Cain wins one, Mary Winograd returns and Terry Branstad puts Florida on notice, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


MONDAY STAKES - Another month will soon have come and gone without a serious Republican challenger announcing against President Barack Obama. The wait, however, may soon be over. Here's Morning Score's take on who has the most to gain or lose in the week ahead:


(1) Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who's on track to be the first credible Republican to announce a presidential exploratory committee, meaning he'll have a monopoly on attention - and scrutiny - as his 2012 campaign gets underway; (2) Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who will have to decide whether he's willing to go ahead with major layoffs of state employees as his standoff with labor and state Democrats continues into yet another week; (3) DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, who's running up against a self-imposed timetable for deciding on a Senate campaign - and will leave his party scrambling for other options if he doesn't get to "yes"; (4) Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, the latest Republican to enter the race for retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's seat, who has an obvious opening in a contest that previously lacked any candidate with strong executive experience or a strong geographic base; (5) The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which could face yet another setback in court if U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson follows up his earlier ruling against the law by ordering a halt to its implementation across 26 states. http://politi.co/glDzLd


ZERO HOUR IN WISCONSIN - "Neither side is budging as budget deadline nears" - The Journal Sentinel: "Neither side is budging in Wisconsin's epic fight over union rights, but at some point the dispute must come to a head. And Tuesday could prove to be a crucial day. Gov. Scott Walker says that is the deadline for the his budget-repair bill to pass because it includes a $165 million bond restructuring needed to shore up problems in the fiscal year that ends June 30. Tuesday is also the day Walker will deliver his two-year budget - one that will cut aid to schools and local governments by more than $1 billion, he said Sunday in television appearances. Senate Minority Leader Mark Miller (D-Monona) has questioned the accuracy of Tuesday's deadline, but Walker has said he will have to soon lay off 1,500 state workers - and more later - if the bill doesn't pass soon." http://bit.ly/iaXeSE


THE 2012 SCORE -NEWT'S PLAN: Newt Gingrich has long signaled he would decide whether to form an exploratory committee during the last week in February, and then make those plans public during the first week in March. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Jim Galloway narrows the timeline even further: "I was on a State Bar panel Saturday afternoon with Randy Evans, the Atlanta lawyer in charge of Newt Gingrich's business interests. ... Before we parted, Evans told me this: 'In 10 days, Newt Gingrich will be in Georgia, announcing his exploratory committee.' Evans later sent an e-mail. 'Within 10 days,' he said." That was two days ago, leaving 8 days on Evans's clock... http://bit.ly/dZrmQZ


BRANSTAD DRAWS THE LINE: Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad vowed that his state will be in the 2012 primary calendar - and told CNN the caucuses will be moved up if Florida continues to defend its Jan. 31 primary date. CNN's Peter Hamby: "Branstad stopped short of asking Florida to move its primary to a later date. 'I am just saying we will do what we need to do,' he said. 'Far be it for me to tell Florida what to do. But we are committed to being the first contest in the country. We have moved it before and we will do it again.'" http://bit.ly/hoL8c7


(STRAW) POLL OF THE DAY - THE TEA PARTY VOTES: Former pizza mogul Herman Cain and Texas Rep. Ron Paul finished strong in the Tea Party Patriots straw poll in Phoenix this weekend. Cain was first among voters who actually attended the tea party convention, while Paul pulled nearly 50 percent of the vote among participants who cast their ballots online. But take note of this: Tim Pawlenty actually beat the straw poll-friendly Paul by a narrow margin among in-person convention attendees, taking 15.87 percent to Paul's 15.04 percent and Sarah Palin's 10.08 percent. That's one more data point showing that Republican primary voters get to know Pawlenty, they like him.


PAWLENTY'S PITCH - The Star-Tribune's Kevin Diaz explains how Pawlenty's weekend trip to Phoenix fit in with the larger arc of his campaign: "Pawlenty, taking a page from Jimmy McMillan of the Rent is Too Damn High Party, tried out a new line Saturday at the Tea Party Patriots American Policy Summit in Phoenix. 'So here's our simple motto,' Pawlenty said. 'The Government's too damn big!' Pawlenty's speech continues a trend of increasingly plainspoken pronouncements as he tours the country laying the groundwork for a possible run for the GOP presidential nomination next year. Also from Pawlenty, in keeping with the Tea Party theme of the day: 'Thank you for standing up to the "ruling class."' http://bit.ly/fQ6NQx


KISS O' DEATH: Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick gave his predecessor, Mitt Romney, a big pat on the back Sunday morning for having enacted a universal health care law in the Bay State. The Boston Globe: "Appearing on ABC's 'This Week,' Patrick singled out health care as one issue Romney 'deserves a lot of credit' for over his four years in office, linking his predecessor to the issue that, as a likely presidential candidate, Romney would probably prefer to avoid. 'One of the best things he did was to be the co-author of our health care reform, which has been a model for national health care reform' Patrick said." http://bo.st/dRntvz


MORE ON PATRICK - Glen Johnson outlines why Patrick could be an especially effective surrogate for the Obama reelection campaign: "Patrick has always cast himself as above the partisan fray, but his election campaigns have shown his willingness to get down and dirty as needed. He gave a reminder last week, when he said his travels would promote the state, while Romney's at the end of his gubernatorial term turned the state into a 'laughingstock.' ... Should Romney get his party's presidential nomination, Patrick will have already laid out for Obama the road map for attacking him ... 'It's nice he's going on the Sunday-morning talk shows,' communications director Brendan Ryan said. 'And I think it will help him as he works as a surrogate for Obama the next two years.'" http://bo.st/ggigCP


NO, SERIOUSLY, GUYS: Mike Huckabee returned to Iowa for a book signing on Sunday and argued to the Quad City Times that his leisurely approach to 2012 isn't a sign that he won't run. From the paper: "Some other potential 2012 candidates, while not formally committing to bids either, have taken some of the more traditional steps in Iowa, such as hiring staff and meeting with activists. 'I'm talking to some folks. It may not be as obvious,' Huckabee insisted." http://bit.ly/hidgYz


KAINE WATCH - FINAL COUNTDOWN: The AP's @cbabington tweeted late Friday: "At DNC mtg, Chm. Tim Kaine says he'll announce his Senate plans within a week. Says most important election next year 'is the president's.'" http://bit.ly/g3BwzG


AND - 'MIDLIFE CRISIS' - The Times-Dispatch's Jeff E. Schapiro explains why this is an agonizing choice for Kaine: "For Kaine, his 50s are a moment of reckoning, an opportunity to weigh dreams against reality, to live out a passion or bow to the practical. ... Because Democrats don't want to Webb-ed a second time, Kaine arguably would be on the hook for a minimum of 12 years - two terms in the Senate. At that point, Kaine would be 66. He would have spent 31 consecutive years in politics, nearly all in elective office ... Kaine's most productive years would be spent doing what neither he nor others expected." http://bit.ly/gTGzwl


THE CALIFORNIA SPECIAL - SHE'S BACK: Two-time Jane Harman primary challenger Marcy Winograd has entered the race for Harman's soon-to-be open seat in Congress. Winograd is the third major Democratic candidate in the running, along with Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and California Secretary of State Debra Bowen. LA Weekly games out the likely impact: "Winograd's entry into the race is bad news for Bowen, as she could split the Westside progressive vote and hand the seat to Hahn. ... Asked if she was worried about playing a spoiler role for Bowen, Winograd said she likes Bowen and would like to see her continue as Secretary of State." http://bit.ly/hBpcLJ


RIVERA'S DEFENSE: In a rare TV interview that aired Sunday, Florida Rep. David Rivera defended himself from charges of ethical and financial misconduct and declared himself "the most transparent of any member of Congress." "I'm going to put any allegations from the campaign behind me; disclose before anybody else in the entire Congress my financial disclosures, and focus on doing my job," Rivera told "Naples Daily NewsMakers with Jeff Lytle." BUT - MORE STORM CLOUDS - The Miami Herald: "Rivera, who is under criminal investigation for financial dealings, wasn't at a recent Eric Cantor fundraiser in Miami and the Majority Leader's spokesman said today that was no mistake. 'Given recent reports, investigations in Florida, Eric has concerns and he believes this was the appropriate way to handle it,' said Brad Dayspring." http://bit.ly/fCK06w and http://bit.ly/eQdvPE


DYNASTY WATCH - PEORIA EDITION: Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood's son will be sworn in Tuesday as the newest member of the Illinois state Senate. The Register-Mail reports: "'Humbled' was how Darin LaHood described himself Saturday afternoon, shortly after being appointed the new state senator for the 37th District. The Peoria attorney defeated five other candidates to replace state Sen. Dale Risinger... LaHood has worked as a prosecutor in Tazewell County as well as for the U.S. Attorney's Office in Las Vegas. He returned to Peoria and private practice in 2005." http://bit.ly/gHCVpg


CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm not the president of the United States with my finger on the nuclear trigger." - Oregon Rep. David Wu, giving one reason why it's appropriate for him to stay in office http://nydn.us/hdZxY4

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