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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


BREAKING THIS MORNING - LABOR POLLS MADISON: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker appears to be paying a price for his confrontation with public employees, according to a new poll taken by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and sponsored by the AFL-CIO, Change to Win and the NEA. Walker's favorability ratings are underwater in the poll, with 49 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression of the governor and only 39 percent saying their impression of him was favorable. Just 43 percent of respondents said they supported Walker's agenda. More importantly, independent voters opposed three major Walker-backed proposals: eliminating collective bargaining for public employees (independents oppose by 26 points), reducing wages for public employees (independents oppose by 25 points) and reducing pension benefits for public employees (independents oppose by 6 points.)


AND - LET'S MAKE A DEAL? The poll floated one possible resolution to the standoff in Madison that would allow state workers to hang on to their bargaining rights. The survey asked: "If state workers agree to pay more for healthcare and retirement as the Governor has asked, do you think they should also have their collective bargaining rights taken away?" Just 21 percent said of respondents said yes, while 74 percent said no. Walker has said he's not prepared to cut a deal to preserve collective bargaining. The survey was taken in two increments, one testing 604 likely voters from Feb. 16-20 and the other testing 402 likely voters from Feb. 19-20. Full polling memo here: http://politi.co/idbwGo


TEXAS SIREN - WEAK FRONTRUNNER: Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst would enter the Texas Senate race as a favorite for the GOP nomination, but with support from just 27 percent of primary voters, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. That says as much about the unsettled state of the race as it does about Dewhurst, writes Ross Ramsey: "[N]o other Republican broke into double digits. Five other named candidates Railroad Commissioners Michael Williams (5 percent) and Elizabeth Ames Jones (3 percent), U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul (4 percent), former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (3 percent) and former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (2 percent) were clustered in low single digits. Undecided grabbed the biggest share of the Republican vote: 52 percent." http://bit.ly/eSUcsO


MORE - MONEY QUOTE: "'It's good news for everybody,' says pollster Daron Shaw, a government professor at UT-Austin. 'If it's Dewhurst, he's ahead. For everybody else, the good news is that no one has become the clear alternative, and 52 percent of the voters are still undecided.'" http://bit.ly/eSUcsO


As Brad Ellsworth takes a pass, Bob McDonnell gives a straight answer and Ron Paul books a flight to New Hampshire, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


ELECTION DAY IN CHICAGO - "Mayor's race now in voters' hands" - The Chicago Tribune: "Chicago voters will decide Tuesday whether the city gets a new mayor to succeed the retiring Richard Daley or faces six more weeks of campaigning ahead of a one-on-one runoff election. ... Despite a record number of aldermanic candidates, election officials said Monday they expect voter turnout will be slightly more than 50 percent. That's low by Chicago standards. When Daley ran for mayor in 1989, 68 percent of voters went to the polls. ... Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, a candidate who was on the cusp of 50 percent in public opinion polls, has been lowering expectations in recent days. 'That's immaterial to me,' Emanuel said Monday of the potential of winning outright Tuesday." http://bit.ly/esQ3Sw


THE MONEY RACE - DEMS WIN JANUARY - SORTA: Democratic campaign committees outraised their Republican counterparts by nearly $3 million last month, but they also finished January with more debt to overcome. The three federal Democratic campaign committees raised a combined $14.2 million - $7.2 million for the DNC, $4.4 million for the DCCC and $2.6 million for the DSCC. For Republicans, the combined total was $11.3 million - $5.4 million for the RNC, $3 million for the NRCC and $2.9 million for the NRSC. But Democrats have just over $44 million in debt on their books, with the largest part of that coming from the DCCC ($18.6 million). For Republicans, that figure is a slightly lower $39 million, largely due to the more than $22 million owed by the RNC.


POPPING TODAY - DCCC'S H-BOMB: The DCCC will attempt to put the screws to House Speaker John Boehner over the deepening ethics scandal surrounding Florida Rep. David Rivera. The Democratic campaign committee plans to label Boehner "hypocrite of the week" - "for his double standard on ethics after claiming the 'highest ethical standards' for Members of Congress in the situation surrounding Representative Chris Lee but remaining silent about the ongoing and expanding criminal investigation into freshman Representative David Rivera." Over the weekend, the Miami Herald reported new details on Rivera's financial problems, which include $817,000 in questionable payments to a campaign consultant. DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson: "With Speaker John Boehner continuing to ignore the expanding and unfolding criminal investigation into Representative David Rivera, it is now clear that Speaker John Boehner's claim of 'highest ethical standards' for Members of Congress is only selectively applied." http://bit.ly/hf6OAD


THE 2012 SCORE - "Ex-aide's book paints harsh Palin portrait" - POLITICO's Ben Smith and Andy Barr: "A new memoir from an embittered former aide to Sarah Palin includes a trove of emails that vividly illustrate her intense focus on image and depiction in the media. The emails, apparently from the former Alaska governor, portray Palin as nearly obsessed with her political adversaries and consumed with every slight, real or perceived. The still-unpublished manuscript, obtained by POLITICO, reveals Palin, as a candidate for governor, penning letters-to-the-editor in praise of herself, to be sent under other names. It blames the candidate for inflaming, rather than ignoring, scurrilous rumors. And it quotes her pledging to avoid appearing on any network other than Fox News, referring to the rest as 'the bad guys.' The content of the unpublished manuscript, written by Frank Bailey, was first reported by the Anchorage Daily News." http://politi.co/dUBkFW


PALIN-WORLD RESPONDS: A Palin ally, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that Bailey and Palin corresponded and that the former aide had access to Palin's passwords and her email account. But the Palin ally said that the content should be viewed through the lens of Bailey being 'the quintessential disgruntled employee.'" http://politi.co/dUBkFW


BARBOUR'S VETO PEN: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour stepped up his criticism of a home-state proposal to create a license plate commemorating KKK founder Nathan Bedford Forrest. He told the AP during a visit to Iowa: "The bureaucracy denied it, the legislature won't pass it and if the legislature passes it, it won't become law because I won't sign it." But Barbour stuck by his position that he won't denounce the effort to honor Forrest: "Barbour says he denounces the Klan, but was asked to denounce a specific person. 'I don't denounce individual people whether they've been dead 100 years or not,' said Barbour. ... When questioned about the racial history of Mississippi, Barbour walked a tightrope by seeking to distance himself from some of the most egregious violence and arguing he had only a passing experience with segregation." http://bit.ly/hvJ0vB


AND - HIS PITCH: The Mississippi governor told reporters in Iowa that he hasn't decided whether to run for president. But he also started making the case that his experience as governor has prepared him for the Oval Office. O. Kay Henderson quotes Barbour: "There is no job like president, but as governor I've not only had to deal with reducing entitlement spending - something that's got to be done nationally - but I've also had to deal with real crisis with (Hurricane) Katrina, when the south half of my state was largely obliterated." More from Henderson's report: "Barbour spoke at a private luncheon fundraiser in Des Moines. He met with three Iowa Republicans who were elected to statewide office this past November, as well as G.O.P. legislators and other Iowa Republican Party insiders." http://bit.ly/dZKrQX


PAUL TO N.H. - Texas Rep. Ron Paul will speak at the Dover Republican Committee's first Lincoln-Reagan Dinner in March. Foster's Daily Democrat reports on the libertarian congressman's plans: "The Texas congressman is widely assumed to be contemplating another run for President, and has a considerable base of support in New Hampshire from four years ago. ... NH GOP Chairman Jack Kimball (himself a Dover resident) will also speak, and will take the opportunity to welcome the potential presidential candidate to New Hampshire. The event is expected to draw attendees from across New Hampshire, and likely Maine and Massachusetts as well." http://bit.ly/e9pQBk


VP WATCH - MCDONNELL'S LISTENING: If nominated for vice president, Bob McDonnell would "probably" accept. The Virginia governor conceded in an interview with NBC12 that he'd find it tough to turn down the second slot on next year's GOP ticket, Ryan Nobles reports: "McDonnell ... said he would be willing to serve if the right person earned the nomination. I asked: 'What if the party's nominee.. came to you and said "for the betterment of your party and your country, I need you to serve as my running mate." Wouldn't that be a difficult thing for you to turn down?' To which McDonnell replied simply, 'Probably'. He then reiterated his consistent position that he is focused on being Governor and is not looking to jump on a national ticket. It seems clear though, McDonnell will be ready to jump, if the call is made." http://bit.ly/f3rOyN


FRIDAY, FRIDAY, FRIDAY - There's a gubernatorial clash of the titans coming at POLITICO's State Solutions Conference. On Friday morning at 8 a.m., Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley will go head-to-head at the Dupont Hotel in a conversation moderated by POLITICO's Jonathan Martin. The event coincides with the National Governors Association meeting this weekend. RSVP to politicoevents@politico.com and e-mail questions to blester@politico.com .


TODAY - MOURDOCK LAUNCHES - The Indiana state treasurer "is expected to announce he will challenge longtime U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar in next year's Republican primary," the Courier-Journal reports. "Mourdock has scheduled press conferences for campaign announcements in Indianapolis and in Jeffersonville for Tuesday after acknowledging that he was considering running against Lugar." http://bit.ly/gxnKuz


ELSEWHERE IN INDIANA - ELLSWORTH OUT: Former Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth won't run for governor or anything else in 2012, the Evansville Courier & Press reported last night. Eric Bradner sketches out where the gubernatorial race stands for Democrats: "[Ellsworth's] decision comes days after Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who also ranked near the top of many Democrats' lists of possible statewide candidates, said he will pass, as well. At the same time, two others - former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg and current state Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson - said they are considering running for governor." http://bit.ly/dLRwTT


THE NEW YORK SPECIAL - GOP TAPS CORWIN: New York Assemblywoman Jane Corwin will be the GOP's candidate for the open House seat formerly held by Rep. Chris Lee. The Buffalo News reports on the selection: "Corwin, a Clarence assemblywoman, was the unanimous choice of county chairmen ... Corwin ran for the 142nd District Assembly seat in 2008 as a political outsider and brought a business perspective to Albany that garnered a high ranking from the state's Conservative Party, said [Erie County GOP Chairman Nicholas] Langworthy." But - circus coming to town? More from the News: "But at least one contender for the GOP nod, industrialist Jack Davis of Amherst, said he is not convinced the process is over. ... Davis said Monday he will ask the GOP chairmen to reconsider their vote. Barring that unlikely event, Davis said he has offered his services to Democrats, on whose line he ran for the office three times... Democratic activity gearing toward a special election has revolved mainly around interest expressed by Erie County Clerk Kathleen C. Hochul." http://bit.ly/gFPCBP


THE ENSIGN SEAT - Democrats in Nevada and Washington are starting to feel antsy as Rep. Shelley Berkley takes her time to decide on a run for Senate. Their impatience is only growing as it becomes clear that GOP Rep. Dean Heller is gearing up to run against Ensign in the GOP primary, the Review-Journal's Laura Myers reports: "I think people are getting anxious,' said Dan Hart, a Democratic operative who believes Berkley would do well. ... Other potential Democratic contenders are waiting in the wings, giving the popular congresswoman first dibs on seeking the seat. They include Secretary of State Ross Miller, Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and State Treasurer Kate Marshall." http://bit.ly/gQHLto


MORE FROM @RALSTONFLASH: "DSCC's Guy Cecil will be in NV this week 4 his reconnaissance mission. Some see any of D constitutional officers as stronger than Berkley. ... Any could win, all underdogs to Heller." http://bit.ly/fZftQC and http://bit.ly/gULKek


CODA - TWEET OF THE DAY: "B4 dinner, Ensign sat down next to Sen. Settelmeyer's wife. Halfway thru, the Settelmeyers switched seats. Sure it wasn't intentional. Funny" - Nevada Republican @ChuckMuth, tweeting from the Douglas County Lincoln Day Dinner http://bit.ly/e7gnne

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