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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


POLITICO SNEAK PEEK - IT'S AN AIR WAR - Jmart reports: "An arm of American Crossroads, the well-financed Republican super PAC, is going up on the air Wednesday with an ad taking aim at public employee unions and highlighting the aid President Obama got in his campaign from organized labor ... The 60-second spot also captures a fired-up Obama at an SEIU event thanking members of that union - most of which work in the private sector - for their help in getting him elected. And to drive perceptions of unions as thuggish and selfish, the spot opens with Rep. Michael Capuano's (R-Mass.) line about getting 'out in the streets and ... a little bloody when necessary' ... Crossroads GPS is airing the ad on national cable. The buy is $750,000 over one week, with spots running on CNN, CNBC and Fox News." Read more: http://politi.co/ibAoa7 ; watch the ad here: http://bit.ly/fZ8Xrf


POPPING TODAY - VIEW FROM THE RIGHT - Voters are determined to cut government spending, even if that means taking aim at public-sector unions and popular programs, according to new data from Resurgent Republic, the GOP polling initiative. The conservative outfit tested a number of contrasting messages on government employee unions - here's what they found: "Voters split 35 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable on government employee unions, but the overall number masks sharp partisan differences. Democrats rate them favorably by 60 to 16 percent, but Republicans present a mirror image (18 percent favorable, 60 percent unfavorable), and Independents side with Republicans (28 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable). ... Half the electorate [50 percent to 43 percent] believes government employee unions hurt the country ... A majority of voters [53 percent to 38 percent] thinks we will never solve our long-term budget problems unless we address overly generous pay and benefits packages for government employees." Read on: http://politi.co/f3Ts99


PLUS - CUT AWAY: In the larger debate over spending, Americans are most sympathetic to politicians who argue the country must "stop spending money we don't have," according to the poll. In a match-up between one message calling for $100 billion in spending cuts and another warning that "cutting means slashing funding for important programs like education, the Environmental Protection Agency, and border security," respondents opted for the budget-slashing option, 61 to 32 percent. Full polling memo here from Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayres and Leslie Sanchez: http://politi.co/f3Ts99 ; and top line numbers here: http://politi.co/ibjZaN


BLOOMBERG DISSENTS - From the news organization's hot-off-the presses poll: "Almost 8 in 10 people say Republicans and Democrats should reach a compromise on a plan to reduce the federal budget deficit ... At the same time, lopsided margins oppose cuts to Medicare, education, environmental protection, medical research and community-renewal programs." http://bloom.bg/i0myOr


LATEST FROM MADISON - "E-mails review possible Walker concessions on union bill" - The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "Gov. Scott Walker's office released documents Tuesday showing he's willing to give on some points of his union bargaining bill to break the Capitol standoff and bring Senate Democrats back from Illinois ... Unions would be allowed to bargain over certain economic issues ... Unions could bargain over workplace safety, but that would be limited to workers' physical health and safety ... Unions would have to vote every three years to remain active ... For weeks, Walker said the state was broke and unable to negotiate on the bill, but recent polls have showed Walker's approval rating has dropped since his Nov. 2 election." http://bit.ly/ftpt8O


As Nevada gets a Senate candidate, Michelle Bachmann runs out the clock and Mitch Daniels threatens to ruin summer vacation, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


2012 TALKER - NEWT CONFESSES TO BRODY - The former House speaker tackled his past affairs head-on in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network. David Brody reports: "Newt Gingrich, who is expected to run for President tells The Brody File that he 'felt compelled to seek God's forgiveness' over his past marital infidelity and now that he's at the grandfather stage he is 'truly enjoying the depths of my life in ways that I never dreamed it was possible.'" Gingrich: "There's no question at times of my life, partially driven by how passionately I felt about this country, that I worked far too hard and things happened in my life that were not appropriate. And what I can tell you is that when I did things that were wrong, I wasn't trapped in situation ethics, I was doing things that were wrong, and yet, I was doing them." http://bit.ly/dXeiZE


CALENDAR WATCH - AP TIMES IT OUT - At least five Republicans are actively preparing to run for president in 2012: Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and Haley Barbour. Some of those candidates have been clearer than others about when they're likely to formally jump into the race. AP's Phil Elliott sketches out what we know about the likely 2012 timetable, so far (numbers added for your convenience): "[1] Newt Gingrich is the Republican taking some of the most public first steps for a presidential bid ... [2] Romney and Pawlenty both are expected to take their own official steps in early spring, likely after April 1 ... [3] [Jon Huntsman's] resignation from Beijing takes effect in April and he might launch a campaign from his new Washington-area home in May ... [4] Barbour ... will be in Iowa twice this month but is not committing to a White House run until the Mississippi legislature ends its session in early April." http://bit.ly/fO0xta


HUCKABEE-ESQUE: Add Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann to the list of candidates who plan to drag out the 2012 suspense until the summertime. "I think probably by about early summer a decision should be made," she told CNN yesterday, calling that a "natural timeline." That's similar to the vague timeline Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin have outlined for their decisions. http://bit.ly/hGcmwp


GOING ROGUE - MANCHIN EDITION: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin won't say whether he'll support Barack Obama for reelection. POLITICO's Manu Raju reports: "On Tuesday, Manchin caused a stir on Capitol Hill when he criticized Republicans, Democrats and Obama for engaging in political theatrics regarding the budget. Manchin said Obama has "failed to lead" on budget negotiations and has not floated a "serious" proposal of his own. Asked if he'd back Obama's reelection bid, Manchin wouldn't answer directly. 'Whoever the president is, I support. That's my president. Democrat, Republican, George Bush, Obama, and every American should take that approach,' Manchin told POLITICO in the Capitol. 'Now can you respectfully disagree? Absolutely.'" http://politi.co/fhVD60


SO THIS MIGHT HAPPEN: New Hampshire may require candidates to produce a long-form birth certificate in order to be certified for the 2012 primary ballot. That's the latest so-called "birther" law to crop up - but supporters say it isn't directed at Barack Obama. The AP has details: "Election Law Chairman David Bates said his committee will consider a bill Wednesday to require candidates to provide a birth certificate and affidavit swearing they are at least 35 years old and have lived in the United States for 14 years, as called for in the U.S. Constitution to qualify for the presidency ... Bates said the purpose of the bill is to ensure that only those truly qualified for the presidency are on the ballot. He emphasized that the measure was not aimed at President Barack Obama, and said he may seek to make the bill effective in 2013 after the next election." http://bit.ly/eUIciW


ELSEWHERE IN N.H. - POPPING ON 2012 LIVE: Ann Romney will fly solo in the Granite State today, attending a private gathering there just says after her husband addressed the Carroll County GOP in a major 2012 coming-out event. POLITICO's James Hohmann: "Mitt's wife, who has been publicly encouraging him to jump into the race, will go to a closed-press house party in Hampton at the home of lawyer Jim Reams ... The Romneys unofficially kicked off their must-win New Hampshire campaign in Bartlett last weekend." http://politi.co/htTwOg


SUMMER OF MITCH: If Indiana Democrats don't return to the state and work on legislative business, Gov. Mitch Daniels may call them into a summer session. That matters to 2012 junkies because Daniels has said he won't make a final call on the presidential race until after the legislature's work is over and done with. The Journal Gazette quotes Daniels: "'I don't know why we hold elections if people aren't going to respect the outcome. I don't know why people run for office if they are going to pocket the money and walk off the job,' he said. ... The majority of the caucus fled to Illinois on Feb. 22, and they continue to protest several labor-related bills as well as education reform changes." http://bit.ly/i400b3


TONIGHT IN DC - From the White House guidance: "In the evening, the President will host a party to watch the Chicago Bulls vs. Charlotte Bobcats game at the White House. Invited guests include a group of bipartisan members of Congress representing Chicago and Charlotte."


CENSUS MUST-READ - MEET THE NEW CALIFORNIA: Latinos nearly outnumber whites in the nation's largest state, new figures from the Census Bureau show. The Los Angeles Times: "Once again, Latinos saw the largest increases in population over the decade, making up 37.6% of the state's total population. As a percentage of the total population, whites dropped to about 40%. The Asian population was 12.8% and the black population was 5.8%." KCRA notes power is shifting geographically within the state, too: "Those numbers reflect a dramatic population shift from coastal areas to the state's inland regions, including the Central Valley and the Sierra foothills ... San Francisco, for example, grew by 3.7 percent in the past decade. By contrast, Sacramento County grew by 16 percent, and Placer County grew a whopping 40 percent." http://lat.ms/dGfnnM and http://bit.ly/i6ZCQb


PRIMARY IN SEARCH OF A CANDIDATE: A majority of Republican primary voters in Maine - 58 percent - want a more conservative Senate nominee than Olympia Snowe, according to a survey from Public Policy Polling. PPP: "Most GOP voters don't really think Snowe belongs in their party- 34% think she ought to be an independent, 33% think she should be a Democrat, and only 27% feel that the GOP is indeed her rightful place ... The appetite is definitely there for someone to replace Olympia Snowe. Whether the folks who have already signed up to do it- Andrew Ian Dodge and Scott D'Amboise- are capable of doing so is another question." http://bit.ly/g8sZiX


TIME FOR HIM TO GO? A slim plurality of voters in Oregon Rep. David Wu's district think the Democratic congressman should resign following disclosures about his mental health. Forty-six percent of voters told SurveyUSA Wu should go, versus 42 percent who think he should stay in office. Unsurprisingly, there's a partisan split to those numbers: "A majority of Republicans and a plurality of Independents say Wu has not been forthcoming enough about his mental health. A majority of Democrats say Wu has disclosed 'just the right amount' about his illness ... In a do-over today of the November 2010 general election in which Wu defeated Republican Rob Cornilles by 13 points, Cornilles today edges Wu 4:3." http://bit.ly/hAf93m


LIFE AFTER ENSIGN - FIRST MOVER: Self-funding Democratic lawyer Byron Georgiou became the first candidate to file for Nevada's newly open Senate seat, pledging to assemble a "top-notch" campaign team for what's expected to be a competitive primary and general election. Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston tweeted at @RalstonFlash: "There's not 1 person in Democratic circles in (DC) or (NV) who thinks he can win. The DSCC will not support him." http://bit.ly/e29qak More from POLITICO's David Catanese: http://politi.co/gPiTon


THE CALIFORNIA SPECIAL - JUMPING THE GUN: Candidates hoping to succeed Rep. Jane Harman in the House of Representatives can begin the filing process for the 36th District seat - even before Harman actually resigns from Congress. The Los Angeles Times explains: "The Los Angeles County registrar-recorder/county clerk's office announced it had begun issuing forms to allow candidates to collect signatures on nominating papers. Officials have not yet set a deadline for turning in signatures but will do so once the governor calls the special election. He has until Monday to do so ... Several [candidates], including presumed frontrunners Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Secretary of State Debra Bowen, both Democrats, already have set up campaigns." http://lat.ms/gZ7Lio


CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Don't believe what you read in the newspapers ... That's not Shermanesque." - Former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, on the possibility of running for mayor in 2013 http://bit.ly/gj77z0

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