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By James Hohmann (
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jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter:
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@jameshohmann )

ROMNEY LEADS GINGRICH 42-31 IN FLORIDA, according to a Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll posted overnight. Rick Santorum is at 14, followed by Ron Paul at 6 percent. "Romney leads in every region of the state - and by 16 percentage points in Tampa Bay. The two Republican front-runners are closest in conservative North Florida, where Romney has 36 percent support and Gingrich 31 percent," Adam Smith writes in today's Tampa Bay Times. "Gingrich and Romney are essentially tied among men, butRomney has a 19-point lead over Gingrich among women...Four years ago, John McCain beat Romney in Florida by 5 percentage points, largely thanks to Romney's anemic showing in South Florida
and among Hispanic Republicans.This year Romney has a 26-point lead in South Florida and 24-point lead among Hispanic voters...Among Republicans, 55 percent had a favorable impression of Romney, and 14 percent unfavorable. Forty-one percent had a favorable impression of Gingrich and 32 percent unfavorable." Tampa Bay Times story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef8860b82529c6fb29a92cd09c5b9e956771844fd958bb2e9883
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef8860b82529c6fb29a92cd09c5b9e956771844fd958bb2e9883 . Full results:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef8860b82529c6fb29a92cd09c5b9e956771844fd958bb2e9883
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c8372f4379d9e29fc5799051b74384732e0ccf7942337e6d7092 .

From the MIAMI HERALD's write-up of the poll: "What does Gingrich need to do? I would say Romney would need to implode.If there's no 11th hour surprise, this race is looking right now like it's over," said Brad Coker, pollster with Mason Dixon Research & Associates, which conducted the telephone survey from Tuesday through Thursday.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef8814ae84363e9a85c1a42f6867b65a9b2631b2c2923074c4d5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef8814ae84363e9a85c1a42f6867b65a9b2631b2c2923074c4d5

CLEAR MOMENTUM - PUBLIC POLICY POLLING PUTS ROMNEY UP 40-32: "Romney has gained 7 points and Gingrich has dropped by 6 since our last poll, which was conducted Sunday and Monday," PPP's Democratic pollster Tom Jensen notes. "It's clear that the negative attacks on Gingrich have been the major difference maker over the last week. His net favorability has declined 13 points from +23 (57/34) to only +10 (50/40) in just five days. Romney has pretty much stayed in place. At the beginning of the week he was at +31 (61/30) and now he's at +33 (64/31). Santorum is actually the most well liked candidate among Florida voters with 65% seeing him favorably to 24% with a negative opinion...But
as popular as he is, he's only gone from 13% to 15% support in the last week."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef8838e3da029251472f87cca19f8e74ad72bd29a844957c9eba
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef8838e3da029251472f87cca19f8e74ad72bd29a844957c9eba

THREE BUZZY FINDINGS FROM THE PPP POLL:

-22% of Florida voters support a colony on the Moon. 52% oppose it. Among Gingrich's supporters, only 34% think it's a good idea.

-56% of likely voters watched Thursday's debate. 41% support Romney. 35% back Gingrich.

-50% now see Romney as most electable to only 23% for Gingrich.

COMING THIS MORNING: An NBC News/ Marist Florida poll will drop on "Meet the Press," according to Mark Halperin.

NATE SILVER FORECASTS 9-POINT ROMNEY WIN: "About one-third of Floridians have already voted. Since Mr. Gingrich only led Mr. Romney for a few fleeting days in the polls, that means that Mr. Romney should have banked an advantage, and that Mr. Gingrich would need to win by perhaps 5 or 10 points on Election Day to claim the state...As it stands now, however, the chance of Mr. Gingrich pulling off an upset in Florida is only about 12 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef88cd8e6e203d9214d6e2125bec321782cac596bb4124c37159
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef88cd8e6e203d9214d6e2125bec321782cac596bb4124c37159

THE WAY TO WIN - ROMNEY PLAN WAS TO MAKE NEWT MAD AND MITT MEANER: "In a call last Sunday morning, just hours after Mr. Romney's double-digit loss to Mr. Gingrich in the South Carolina primary, the Romney team outlined the new approach to the candidate. Put aside the more acute focus on President Obama and narrow in on Mr. Gingrich," Jim Rutenberg and Jeff Zeleny report on A1 of Sunday's New York Times. "Find lines of attack that could goad Mr. Gingrich into angry responses and rally mainstream Republicans. Swarm Gingrich campaign events to rattle him. Have Mr. Romney drop his above-the-fray persona and carry the fight directly to his opponent, especially in two critical debates scheduled
for the week...David Kochel, an adviser who arrived here from Iowa to oversee the pressure campaign, described the strategy as'let's go rush the quarterback.'" Lots of great details in here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef88210cefea273ae1847c7434601beab3c584f4836590706f95
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef88210cefea273ae1847c7434601beab3c584f4836590706f95 .

** As Pennsylvania Republicans start to get behind the Governor's candidate, the Romney camp declines Tom Brokaw's plea to take down an ad featuring him and Super PACs brand out, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

CAIN ENDORSES GINGRICH - REMEMBER HIM? "Speaker Gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas," Cain said at a Republican dinner in West Palm Beach last night where he appeared with Gingrich. "And I also know that Speaker Gingrich is running for president and going through this sausage grinder - I know what this sausage grinder is all about. I know he is going through this sausage grinder because he cares about the future of the United States of America." Gingrich said Cain will be co-chairman of a commission on "jobs, economic growth and taxes" if he wins. The Palm Beach Post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef88ccbefe42229289e895d42ba9b13f24099c190f9d1ca6bdb4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=246a554b762fef88ccbefe42229289e895d42ba9b13f24099c190f9d1ca6bdb4 .

SANTORUM ADMITS DAUGHTER TO HOSPITAL - CANCELS MORNING EVENT: "Rick Santorum and his wife Karen admitted their youngest daughter, Bella, to a Philadelphia hospital [last night]. The 3-year-old suffers from the rare, but serious genetic condition Trisomy 18, which kills about 90 percent of children before or during birth. The campaign did not immediately know how serious Bella's condition is, but Hogan Gidley, Santorum Communications Director told ABC News 'even a cold is not a good thing.' She's been admitted to the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. The former Pennsylvania senator often talks about his daughter on the campaign trail...The campaign has canceled Santorum's appearance at a
Miami church Sunday morning, but as of late [Saturday] they are still keeping his afternoon events in Sarasota and Punta Gorda on the schedule. 'Rick intends to return to Florida and resume the campaign schedule as soon as is possible,' Gidley said in a statement." ABC's Shushannah Walshe:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac97964924197f959274e403b5cbf2ebf54c245ec097ba94ad
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac97964924197f959274e403b5cbf2ebf54c245ec097ba94ad .

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: Gingrich visits a Baptist church in Lutz at 9 and hosts a rally in the Villages at 1:30. Romney rallies in Naples at 11:45, greets voters in Hialeah at 3:45 and finishes the day with a big rally at the civic center in Pompano Beach. Santorum is canceling his morning event in Miami, but I'm still tentatively planning to be at his afternoon events in Sarasota and Punta Gorda. The president has no public schedule today.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ace2b17078fe1cb42181decd8dc7bb5f0147bf7ee5b4abaa80
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ace2b17078fe1cb42181decd8dc7bb5f0147bf7ee5b4abaa80

THE AIR WAR - ROMNEY CAMP REFUSES NBC REQUEST TO PULL BROKAW AD: "Eric Fehrnstrom, Mitt Romney's senior adviser, told reporters after a rally in Panama City, Fla., that the campaign has received NBC's letter complaining about its ad featuring a 1997 broadcast [about Gingrich's ethics violation] but does not intend to take it down. 'We just received the letter. We are reviewing it. But we believe it falls within fair use,' Fehrnstrom said. 'We didn't take the entire broadcast, we just took the first 30 seconds of it.' Of then-anchor Tom Brokaw, who personally issued a statement of protest about the ad, Fehrnstrom said: 'We respect him as a newsman who has a lot of credibility but we
believe this falls within fair use standards.'" The full text of NBC's letter:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ace2078804bcd736073839cfb609122f31b8bf514eb1b2e893
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ace2078804bcd736073839cfb609122f31b8bf514eb1b2e893 . Reid Epstein's item on the Romney response:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac6645df92181980aef7ddc7e9c4bbe355c2fd71d5b9875dca
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac6645df92181980aef7ddc7e9c4bbe355c2fd71d5b9875dca .

HOW IT'S PLAYING: The effect of the ad/ensuing back-and-forth with NBC was to get tons of EARNED MEDIA and to put Gingrich on the DEFENSIVE. Stories about Newt's events yesterday largely follow the pattern of this Wall Street Journal story, headlined"Gingrich DEFENDS congressional record."Truism: if you're explaining, you're losing.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac6327a30c7649f9a10a3050eddafcfae9ae3937eeffb963d7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac6327a30c7649f9a10a3050eddafcfae9ae3937eeffb963d7

THE FIGHT FOR FLORIDA - A WINDOW INTO LOCAL COVERAGE:

SARASOTA HERALD-TRIBUNE - "GINGRICH DEFENDS FINANCIAL BACKING FROM CASINO MOGUL": "Newt Gingrich today defended his heavy financial backing by a Las Vegas casino mogul before a conservative audience at a Baptist church. A political action committee is financing television ads for Gingrich in Florida and its primary funding source is Sheldon Adelson and his wife Miriam, who have given $10 million to the PAC. Adelson is a billionaire who heads the Las Vegas Sands Corp. At a forum, hosted by the Orange County Liberty Counsel at the Aloma Baptist Church, Gingrich was asked by conservative activist John Stemberger about his view of casino gambling in light of that support. Stemberger is
supporting Rick Santorum in the presidential race. Gingrich noted that he legally has no control over the PAC ...but had read press reports that showed that Adelson had been 'very generous' in his support...Gingrich said he has had la long friendship with the casino owner over their ardent support for 'the survival of Israel.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac4720adbb9ccb286acc21ea32df8e2f82bb4c58a8703f5708
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac4720adbb9ccb286acc21ea32df8e2f82bb4c58a8703f5708

PENSACOLA NEWS JOURNAL - "ROMNEY TOUTS COMMITMENT TO MILITARY ON PENSACOLA TRIP": "Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney rode a wave of momentum into Pensacola on Saturday morning to stake his claim in this military-rich city that he is the best candidate to protect the country and preserve America's military might. Coming off a strong debate performance Thursday and sensing likely victory on Tuesday, Romney seemed relaxed, yet excited, as he spoke to the overflow crowd that flocked to The Fish House deck in downtown Pensacola to hear him. He promised that he would increase military troop strength if elected - a sharp contrast to President Barack Obama's plan to cut the
military by 100,000 troops...The former Massachusetts governor was joined on the Pensacola campaign stop by U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Virginia Gov. Robert McDonnell and actor Jon Voight."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7aca095c60489d54775fe88656aac71045de18d4239556e685e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7aca095c60489d54775fe88656aac71045de18d4239556e685e

TAMPA BAY TIMES - "REPUBLICANS FRET ABOUT ROMNEY AND HIS MASS. HEALTH PLAN": "While he rails against 'Obamacare,' the similarities with the plan Romney implemented as governor of Massachusetts - 'Romneycare,' as Santorum called it - could deflate a contrast Republicans are eager to draw in the general election with President Obama," Alex Leary writes. "It's easy to imagine Democratic ads juxtaposing Romney's campaign rhetoric with his support of the plan in Massachusetts, which is widely popular among residents, and was a template for the federal law. 'It's the Et tu, Brute strategy,' said Alex Castellanos, a national Republican strategist who worked for Romney in 2008. 'You try
to kill somebody by trying to hug them and get as close as possible. It's smart politics. It just doesn't happen to be true.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7acc4b6a43d59b64ebdecb9618ce72e77dd4cac050c953345bb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7acc4b6a43d59b64ebdecb9618ce72e77dd4cac050c953345bb

POLITICO - FLORIDA CALENDAR CRASHING PAYS OFF: "In order to hold a January primary, they defied Democratic and Republican party rules, invited penalties against their delegates at next summer's convention and infuriated party leaders in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Now, Florida party leaders say they have every intention of making sure their unofficial status as the first mega-state primary becomes a permanent feature of presidential politics - not a one-off decision to crash the 2012 calendar, but an irreversible blow to the traditional early-state monopoly. They've even developed, in a matter of months, the sense of early-state exceptionalism that defines Iowa and New
Hampshire. Ask virtually any Florida Republican why the state deserves special status and you'll get the same answer: it's huge, heterogeneous, soon to be the third-largest state in the country and it's critical to the general election." Alex Burns:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac77609bbb3b316a580d41c1c958f50d1d6e09f31eb7d27a3d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7ac77609bbb3b316a580d41c1c958f50d1d6e09f31eb7d27a3d .

THE ZEITGEIST - CALENDAR LOOKS ROUGHER FOR GINGRICH THAN IT DID LAST WEEK: "The conventional wisdom is back: February will be a winter of discontent for Gingrich, not Romney," says The Huffington Post's Jon Ward. "Gingrich has pointed to Gallup's national tracking poll, which on Friday showed him leading Romney [32 to 24] ... But ... thenational polling numbers have been seen as a lagging indicator instead of a leading one. 'I think you will see Newt lose his national lead soon, and [he] has no place in the short term to recover momentum,' said Matthew Dowd, a political strategist who worked for former President George W. Bush. Four states will hold caucuses in early February: Nevada on
Feb. 4, Colorado and Minnesota on Feb. 7, and Maine's Republicans for a week with results to announced on Feb. 11.Dowd pointed out that there are no debates until Feb. 22, depriving Gingrich of his best opportunity to score big points."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7aca15c4dc5ab3b0791321423bc24eb3c000d4ecf0cc9cded06
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ce61ec22ec5fb7aca15c4dc5ab3b0791321423bc24eb3c000d4ecf0cc9cded06

TALKING POINTS FOR GINGRICH PHONE BANK VOLUNTEERS: Nothing surprising, but here's the one-page call sheet being given to Gingrich phone bankers. One of the overarching messages: "ELITES WANT TO TAKE HIM OUT." See it:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c83758599848078826dbd0aa7d0c1a07a151ee583df78429befc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c83758599848078826dbd0aa7d0c1a07a151ee583df78429befc .

PAUL IN MAINE - L.L. BEAN HEIRESS ENDORSES: "Linda Bean, an heiress to famed Maine outfitter L.L. Bean, came out in support of Ron Paul on Saturday as the candidate made a campaign swing through the state," CNN reports. "Bean, who is a part owner of her family's company and sits on its board, said she is a longtime supporter of the Texas congressman. She backed his 2008 presidential bid, but hasn't made a public endorsement in the current race until now. Bean made her endorsement at the lobster restaurant she owns in Freeport, situated across the road from L.L. Bean's large flagship store." CNN:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837253e4a6bfcfe800c4a22ce482543cbc5a3fe7dacb78b0132
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837253e4a6bfcfe800c4a22ce482543cbc5a3fe7dacb78b0132 The Denver Post previews Paul's Colorado stops coming on Tuesday:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837253e4a6bfcfe800c4a22ce482543cbc5a3fe7dacb78b0132
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837b98a193fc65b2b2d5a3386b79dc64e8843bb9650c587cc36 .

PENNSYLVANIA SENATE - GOP ENDORSES WELCH TO CHALLENGE CASEY: "A Chester County entrepreneur won the endorsement Saturday from Pennsylvania's Republican Party in what could be a bruising, four-way primary election for the nomination to contest Democrat Bob Casey's re-election bid for U.S. Senate," per the Associated Press (Philly.com, the Inquirer's web site, is running a wire story on this). "The endorsement was won by Steve Welch after an extraordinary show of power by Gov. Tom Corbett, who began calling state party officials to tell them of his support for Welch less than two weeks ago. Corbett spent much of Friday and Saturday at the party's winter meeting at the Hershey
Lodge, speaking at both public events and in private with committee members about the need to endorse the candidate he backed. The party followed suit, even though Welch had finished third in a series of straw votes earlier in January and despite pressure from some quarters, such as Tea Party-aligned groups, not to endorse anyone."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c8370fc08efb4a832aed8e6505f5d92cf3867c1feb2446d0dfab
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c8370fc08efb4a832aed8e6505f5d92cf3867c1feb2446d0dfab

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE - BROWN RELEASES MORE MILITARY RECORDS: "Senator Scott P. Brown was mistakenly retired from the Massachusetts National Guard for nearly half a year in 2005 and was reinstated - and then retroactively promoted and awarded back pay - after he filed an appeal to correct the record, according to a more complete version of his military file that the Massachusetts Republican released yesterday." Behind a pay wall:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837290f8f6fc5e0486602a804021ea637199d7fbb548775d844
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837290f8f6fc5e0486602a804021ea637199d7fbb548775d844 .

CABLE CATNIP - FORBES SAYS ROMNEY WOULD BE FOURTH RICHEST PRESIDENT:Here is their ranking of the 10 richest presidents: George Washington, Herbert Hoover, Thomas Jefferson, John F. Kennedy, Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt, Zachary Taylor, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson and James Madison. Story explains the calculations:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837bffd2676d8e54d4138d3cd19a3e3116173dd8f9d58662154
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837bffd2676d8e54d4138d3cd19a3e3116173dd8f9d58662154 .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We want to get each of you to come by, get a picture, see each of you individually." - Newt Gingrich trying to make the best of an event in a Hispanic neighborhood of Orlando, where he arrived 50 minutes late to find a small crowd that was close to outnumbered by reporters, photographers and Mitt Romney surrogates who've been crashing events. It was far easier than standing before a near-empty hall.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837d809ef84d2101836948d92761ff676d607ea9b51963a3a24
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d16c57223579c837d809ef84d2101836948d92761ff676d607ea9b51963a3a24

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