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Fwd: Am Well Thoughts
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ncallahan@rosemontseneca.com
DATE:
2014-04-08 18:49:39
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<CAOPXL7Jd0qd6s5aD+_09ppGx5p3CL208ztrPD2KbqHjpUnh+GQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Hunter Biden
<hbiden@rosemontseneca.com>
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Here are the pros and cons we came up with for AW. LMK when you want to talk. I could get behind an investment, but we'd need to help them - they burn money like it's going out of style, need to be way more analytical and not just spend money on superficial ideas. I could help them on the direct to consumer front, I had clients like AW in a past life doing consumer marketing. The key will be for them to this efficiently and not blowing $50m on it which they could easily do. ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Neil Callahan (Rosemont Seneca) <ncallahan@rosemontseneca.com> Date: Fri, Mar 28, 2014 at 6:02 PM Subject: Am Well Thoughts To: John DeLoche <john@rstp.com>, Sebastian Momtazi < smomtazi@rosemontseneca.com> Cc: William Lee <will@rstp.com>, darcher@rosemontseneca.com In prep for Monday, here are my thoughts: Pros: 1. Telehealth will become a common method for delivering health care in the future, AW is an early market entrant with insurance relationships and knowledge of how to deliver tele-medicine 2. Well recognized founders who have had successful start ups and exits - good track record 3. Strong adoption of payers to make service available to their covered lives 4. Strong IP in process and technology in the telemedicine space 5. $15m in revenue and growing 6. Public markets like companies in this space 7. Strategic buyers in this space have a tendency to pay a high price for assets that don't have much value Cons: 1. In the middle of a business model pivot from enterprise software to a director to consumer model as well as supplying the supply of Doctors. So a new skill set, need to a large brand development expense and a large capital requirement to support the captive Doctor supply 2. Poor stewards of capital: $92.1M capital invested in last 6 years 3. Losing money - massive annual loses and negative cash flow 4. Investing in joint ventures that are capital intensive and masks true revenue - $2-3m of annual management fees are coming from JVs they have capitalized with balance sheet capital 5. Capital plan is to raise an additional $25-50m in equity and then immediately raise up to $100m in debt 6. Poor market adoption in market where tele-medicine has been approved, no clear evidence that adoption rates will go up in newly approved States. 7. Low market adoption, limited success in tele-medicine use cases 8. Not clear is technology retains any value: tele-medicine can be delivered on free apps like Skype, Google and Facebook 9. Unclear how getting CMS to approve Medicare reimbursement helps in the short term or ever. Even is CMS approved it tomorrow, it would not have an significant impact to revenue for 2-3 years before it's fully implemented in terms of processes and procedures. Also, Medicare patients are elderly and poor - they cannot afford to own smart phones ($500 apiece) or afford to pay $50 a month for broadband internet access -so they would not use tele-medicine via smart phone - maybe through a clinic, or retail or kiosks environment where the computer hardware and internet access were free of use for the patient. 10. Price: $500m pre-money, 33x next year's revenue is too high. Maybe 10x next year's revenue would be more appealing, a 66%+ discount to last round. Neil Callahan Rosemont Seneca Technology Partners Carnegie Hall Tower 152 West 57th, 47th Floor New York, NY 10019 212-933-9965 (o) 917-945-9516 (m) 866-749-8879 (f) www.rstp.com -- Neil Callahan Rosemont Seneca Partners 917-945-951
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