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Be sure to check out Sally Painter's Op-Ed on President Kircher's visit to the U.S.
in Politico [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0014oiJRQ_tSOOZQ9Q9rCiPkihCKs12_Q8vxyOuqGrCD6JjOMHcVl8vGFMhvZCZcdRwZmqHQUMHdNppGAdIiypLf8UMBBkmfdJoMCJMPztn4VhZAiW_iG59ymtThLYCJZcep6Y9dRYtbrWLvX3gqAM42DNABMckI_es]

IN THIS ISSUE

Syria and the UN
Regional Implications for an Open Myanmar
Diplomatic Failure in the East China Sea
Belarusian Elections

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UN Paralysis and the Syrian Solution

On March 19, 2011, Western leaders, alarmed by the disaster unfolding in Libya,
voted in the UN Security Council to intervene militarily with "all necessary means,"
arguing that they could not stand by and watch civilians get massacred.

As a result of the UN resolution, NATO launched a bombing campaign, led by Britain,
France and the US. Allied forces flew about 10,000 bombing sorties over Libya, helping
to obliterate Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year dictatorship in just seven months. Now,
with another crisis escalating in Syria, the politics of getting UN approval for
intervention is allowing the 18-month-old uprising and crackdown in Syria to drag
on.

The original rationale for the UN's creation was to prevent war, and thus the Syrian
conflict - with its steadily mounting death toll and possible spillover to neighboring
countries - was the top security issue facing this year's 67th General Assembly.
On September 25, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon opened the proceedings with a
strong condemnation of the situation in Syria, calling the conflict "a regional
calamity with global ramifications. This is a serious and growing threat to international
peace and security, which requires Security Council action." Ban's comments were
primarily directed at Russia and China, the UN Security Council members that have
repeatedly blocked military action against Assad in pursuit of their geopolitical
goals. UN-Arab League Joint Special Representative to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi, also
gave a downbeat assessment of the stalemate, but also stated that he has crafted
a new plan to break the impasse. Brahimi plans to meet with Russian and Chinese
leaders in an effort to forge a lasting solution.

The UN's current impotence on Syria is the same it faced with Libya as Gaddafi's
forces closed in on Benghazi; the crucial shift came when the Arab League demanded
UN intervention. But when the Arab League asked Ban Ki-moon to submit the Syria
issue to the UN Security Council under chapter VII of the UN charter, as a threat
to world peace and security, Russia and its ally China reaffirmed that they would
not seek any military intervention in the crisis or change of regime in the country...

Read the full article here [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0014oiJRQ_tSOM1-nwXnobwAxrC_oLc3sXh3tVSYlTJf6LzJdKiSs7u0HQYkpb3QrshSve_dxaH26hLlhUQYpOcy5v82q6jIsdVc0R46Ey0xy9OUzPl8liZqFWPi_sdCho52rdX3JTtT6iZPbZcrLw6aMtvClXuFhExK0Oc4bfszhqdrlUO8NBpvw==].
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Myanmar's Opening:

The Regional Implications

Myanmar, the Southeast Asian country formerly known as Burma, has been ruled by
a military regime since 1962, when General Ne Win staged a coup that toppled the
civilian government. The current junta, formed in 1988, threw out the results of
a parliamentary election in 1990 won overwhelmingly by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's National
League for Democracy (NLD) party. In response, Western nations imposed sanctions,
significantly slowing Myanmar's economy.

After years of stagnation, however, change is coming at a rapid pace - though still
on the military's terms. Nonetheless, the country is veering away from authoritarianism
and Soviet-style economic management that has left the majority of the country's
55 million people in dire poverty. In November 2010, Myanmar held its first national
elections in two decades (without the participation of the NLD), and in March 2011,
a new president was sworn in. Since taking office, President U Thein Sein, himself
a former general, has moved swiftly toward democratization and a more open economy.

Myanmar's political and economic reforms matter not only domestically, but will
also deeply affect its immediate neighbors. Since gaining independence from England
in 1948, Myanmar has strove for a neutral foreign policy, preferring to avoid confrontations
with surrounding countries in an attempt to limit the risk of being drawn into war.
At the same time, because Myanmar is composed of many ethnic groups, for most of
the country's post-independence history there has been continuous internal ethnic
conflict...

Read the full article here [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0014oiJRQ_tSONX9CW7jgvHjWVS8IyGO9sEHxVLbSw_AMTshKM3iu-EgoV6OBSLFgSHiZYsQKYnF3-FEWh3qFJU4gelcFLJYTBJWIY99utfECr8DPMv45hWKvrOaOOAMLa9As5Y9iN5nZq3sm5XbUGk6LWHDNLD65ZfhwcEGYWpgNCmgeYjSqxylg==].
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China and Japan's Tug of War:

A Diplomatic Failure

Over the past weeks, a turbulent nationalism has shaken the East China Sea. China's
streets filled with protestors wrapped in the national flag, loudly condemning their
Japanese neighbors. The international community is anxiously waiting for a resolution
between the world's second and third largest economies. However, in the midst of
political transition, will diplomacy outweigh populism on their agendas?

On September 11th , 2012, Japan publicly acquired the Senkaku Islands, located in
the East China Sea, from a prominent Japanese family. For years there has been an
ongoing debate over the ownership of these islands between China, Japan and Taiwan.
The history of the islands is tangled. Japan has controlled them since the 19th
century, although China claims their initial discovery. After Japan surrendered
to the United States in World War II, the islands became US property. However,
the United States then returned them to Japan after a UN geological survey declared:
"A high probability exists that the continental shelf between Taiwan and Japan may
be one of the most prolific oil reserves in the world." Since then, the three countries
bordering the islands have battled over who has legitimate ownership.

The possibility that a vast reserve of natural gas and oil exists under the South
China Sea dramatically complicates the situation. According to a Chinese estimate
cited by the Washington Post, there could be up to 213 billion barrels of oil contained
the area. If this estimate is anywhere near accurate, it would represent the largest
oil reserve outside of Saudi Arabia...

Read the full article here [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0014oiJRQ_tSOOVbn40vLllEnK800eKTE2yGd9b80jOwhbprowaUa2WRrA5j32xg0wuA1d-sUdoSa6SzNczatPshfvj5c228qtwhbkguSct6qi3SD7x30oL4uTvql__JPzKIKGvb4HFpC-2DNzizhMEiVqz3YmMNNbDf8JX8Os1H_TFgsUpKEyW-g==].
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Another Step Back From

Democracy in Belarus

On Sunday, September 23rd 2012, polling stations across the Republic of Belarus
opened, commencing parliamentary elections. Much of the world held its breath in
anticipation that the 300 observers sent from the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) might somehow affect the election results. Unfortunately,
the worst fears appear to have been confirmed - according to official results, every
single one of the 110 open seats has been occupied by loyal supporters of President
Alexander Lukashenka.

The electoral commission announced a voter turnout of 65.9-74.3 percent. Local observers
proclaimed that this figure was grossly inflated, estimating the actual voter turnout
was somewhere between 30-55%. Of course, with at least 20 independent election observers
detained and many others denied a "meaningful opportunity" to effectively observe
the counting process, it is difficult to approximate the exact figure. And just
three days before the election, Belarus denied visas to two observers from the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe.

Denunciations rolled in immediately...

Read the full article here [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0014oiJRQ_tSOPDWizqs-TqYIXgbGUvJaTyFJTlWI2JAwv6s-VVumseyDWVUAfvnI4X75qgOOk6hPcOF8QSzdjQ97_ggS-Bf-Vpw4fPhJ5YffFEJs8Qkpra7eSYWEIze7NuyI9FlU_XPYua9nC1FeXKtrv0CJEfVDaCntV4_o2qr5_uL0ABm6J-5Q==].

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