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'FISCAL CLIFF' ALREADY HARMING ECONOMY - "The 'fiscal cliff' is still two months off, but the scheduled blast of tax hikes and spending cuts is already reverberating through the U.S. economy, hampering growth and, according to a new study, wiping out nearly 1 million jobs this year alone," Lori Montgomery writes on A1 of the Washington Post. The report, scheduled for release Friday by the National Association of Manufacturers, predicts that the economic damage would deepen considerably if Congress fails to avert the cliff, destroying nearly 6 million jobs through 2014 and sending the unemployment rate soaring to near 12 percent.

"Across the nation, companies are bracing for the fallout by laying off workers, letting jobs go vacant and postponing major purchases. Commerce Department data released Thursday show business investment stalled in September, as orders for core capital goods such as machinery and equipment plateaued at $60.3 billion."
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PELOSI's MEDIA BLITZ - Amid speculation about whether she'll stay or go, House Minority is on a media offensive in a bid to reach out to the Democratic base, particularly women and youth voters, before Nov. 6, a Pelosi source says.

The California Democrat appeared on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" Thursday night, hitting what her party sees as Mitt Romney's evolving positions: 'President Obama calls it 'Romnesia.' I call it Mittology," Pelosi told host Jon Stewart.
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Earlier in the day, she taped an interview with Charlie Rose, and sat down with Rachael Ray this week for an episode of the Rachael Ray Show which airs Nov. 1.She also did a segment with NPR's Peter Sagal for the news quiz 'Wait, Wait...Don't Tell Me' which aired last weekend. The leader was in New York as part of a Northeast campaign swing that includes Connecticut and Massachusetts.

$42M IN INDEPENDENT SPENDING POURS INTO CALIF. HOUSE RACES -- Jean Merl and Richard Simon report for the Los Angeles Times: "Democratic congressional candidate Jay Chen couldn't begin to match the nearly $2.5 million raised by longtime Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), whom Chen is challenging for what is widely regarded as a safe GOP seat. But a little-known group called America Shining recently started spending money - more than $610,000 so far - to oppose Royce and help Chen, drawing attention to the race in ways the Chen campaign couldn't afford. The outlay by the 3-month-old America Shining, whose only donor is Chen's brother Shaw, is a fraction of the nearly $42 million in
independent spending poured into unusually competitive California congressional races this year. More than half that amount has gone to just three of the state's 53 districts."
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OBAMA'S BAD OCTOBER HURTS HOUSE DEMS - Alex Isenstadt writes for POLITICO: "President Barack Obama's bad October isn't just jeopardizing his own reelection hopes. House Democrats making a last-gasp push to capture the majority say their prospects have dimmed in recent weeks, too, as Mitt Romney has surged into contention. Democrats say their congressional candidates have seen a downturn over the last month or so, as the presidential race has tightened. Whether Obama's widely-panned performance in the first debate is the culprit or if the shift was the result of inevitable tightening in the final weeks of the election is a topic of debate among party strategists. What's not in dispute is the
downtick's correlation to Obama's drop in polls. At the end of September, days prior to the Oct. 3 debate in Denver, Democrats held a 48 percent to 45 percent lead over Republicans in a National Public Radio generic congressional ballot survey. Now the Real Clear Politics average of generic ballot polls shows Democrats and Republicans essentially tied."
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TWITTER TRAFFIC -- @ChuckGrassley: Fred and I hit a deer on hiway 136 south of Dyersville. After I pulled fender rubbing on tire we continued to farm. Assume deer dead

THE RESULTS ARE IN ... POLITICO WINS - POLITICO officially ranks No. 1 in PRINT and ONLINE when compared with every other Capitol Hill publication, according to the just released 2012 Erdos & Morgan Opinion Leader survey. POLITICO leads National Journal, Roll Call, The Hill and Congressional Quarterly with opinion leaders in the congressional branch, executive branch, inside the Beltway and in D.C. It also swept the poll of opinion leaders in health care, energy, technology, national security/defense, economy/finance and business.

New York Times, A1, "Bad Luck and Missteps Make G.O.P.'s Senate Climb Steeper," By Jonathan Weisman: "The Indiana Senate candidate Richard E. Mourdock's reintroduction of rape and abortion into the political dialogue this week is the latest in a series of political missteps that have made the Republican quest to seize control of the Senate a steeper climb. Once viewed as likely to win the Senate, Republicans are now in jeopardy of losing seats in Massachusetts and Maine. If they do, they will need to win at least five seats held by Democrats and hold three other Republican seats at risk to net the three needed to take the Senate if Mitt Romney wins the presidency.

-- "If President Obama prevails, Republicans will have to win at least one additional seat in a state where they are seen as slightly behind - in Connecticut, Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania.

... Rob Jesmer, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Thursday that Republican candidates were within reach of victory in 10 to 12 competitive races, with Mr. Romney's improvement in the polls lifting candidates in states that were out of play six weeks ago. But time is dwindling. The implications for the next two years cannot be overstated. If Mr. Obama wins a second term, his hand would be much strengthened by a Democratic-led Senate, even a narrowly divided one, as opposed to unified Republican majorities in the House and the Senate."

TEA PARTY-BACKED MOURDOCK LEANS ON NATIONAL GOP - Manu Raju reports from Indianapolis: "When he rode a tea party wave to victory over Sen. Dick Lugar, Republican Richard Mourdock called his bid a "revolt" against an "out of touch" Washington establishment that had become poisoned by the waters of the Potomac. But in his darkest hour as a candidate, Mourdock now needs the party establishment more than ever. As he reels from the firestorm created by his comments on rape and pregnancy, he's still relying on the support from the top political figures, big-spending committees and money men of the Republican Party to carry him into the Senate.

-- "Mitt Romney's coattails are crucial to Mourdock, who is the only Senate candidate in the country benefiting from a TV ad starring the GOP nominee. Mitch McConnell has raised big bucks for him. Chris Christie, John McCain and scores of Senate Republicans have lent Mourdock help on the stump - and they don't appear to be abandoning him despite his controversial remarks that God intended for pregnancies to happen from rape."
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-- Gaffes could cost the GOP the Senate majority - just like it did in 2010, writes the Hill's Cameron Joseph: "Mourdock joins Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.), who torpedoed his campaign with comments that 'legitimate rape' rarely leads to pregnancy, as the two candidates most likely to cost the GOP control in a closely divided Senate because of controversial statements. Democrats are comparing the two to 2010 GOP Senate nominees Sharron Angle in Nevada, Ken Buck in Colorado and Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, whose campaigns cost their party a chance at Senate control - and some Republicans agree."
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-- Democrats have gone all in for abortion rights this election, write POLITICO's david Nather and Charlie Mahtesian: "This was supposed to be an election in which the economy dominated the debate, social issues took a backseat and the culture wars were put on hold. Yet in the homestretch of the 2012 campaign, abortion politics is coloring races up and down the ticket. And it's by design. Democrats have gone all in for abortion rights, with none of the hedging or defensiveness they've shown in recent years - a subtle but striking repositioning with political consequences that extend far beyond Nov. 6."
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-- And women PACs have seen an influx of cash this cycle, writes the Wall Street Journal's Alicia Mundy.
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Washington Post, A1, "Some W.Va. Democrats separating from Obama," By Michael Leahy: "Among the millions of wavering voters in the presidential race, the most prominent might be West Virginia's Joe Manchin - a U.S. senator, a candidate for reelection and a lifelong Democrat who, less than two weeks out, is undecided about whether to support Barack Obama again. 'I don't feel compelled as I did in 2008,' he says. Manchin isn't alone among West Virginia Democrats attempting to separate themselves from the president. The governor, Earl Ray Tomblin, and a prominent congressman, Nick J. Rahall II - both facing reelection challenges - have also declined to publicly endorse Obama.

-- "But the spurning of the president by the 65-year-old Manchin, a popular former governor and nowadays his state's chief political luminary, stands out - in part because of Manchin's intense criticism of the man whom he regularly and affectionately called 'Barack' during the 2008 campaign. A federal 'war on coal' has harmed West Virginia and united Democratic dissenters against the Obama administration, Manchin declared in an interview last week, observing of the president's electoral fate: 'I think he knows he's not going to do well in our state. . . . And you know what? It's personal. When people lose their jobs, they look at you and ask, 'So, what am I to do?' And they
blame him.'"
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McCAIN, KYL CRY FOUL OVER CARMONA AD - Scott Wong reports: "Arizona Democrat Richard Carmona is letting Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl make the case for him - and the two Arizona Republicans are not at all pleased about it. The Grand Canyon State's two senators have endorsed Carmona's Republican opponent, Rep. Jeff Flake. But in a new ad, Carmona uses footage of McCain and Kyl praising him as an 'invaluable leader' during his 2002 Senate confirmation hearing to become President George W. Bush's U.S. surgeon general. 'Dr. Carmona's inspiring story is the living embodiment of the American Dream,' McCain says of the decorated Vietnam War veteran, former SWAT team member, and
physician. ...'One might call him a man for all seasons,' adds Kyl, the retiring veteran senator whom Carmona and Flake are vying to succeed. 'His unique background will serve him well and serve us well.' McCain and Kyl blasted the ad in a joint statement late Thursday, calling it blatantly deceptive."
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BROWN TO MANDEL: LITTLE CHANCE YOU'RE GOING TO THE SENATE - Joe Guillen writes for the Cleveland Plain Dealer: "During the lone debate to be televised statewide, the candidates toned down the nastiness shown in their debate last week. But the attacks, while less abrasive, were constant throughout the hour-long debate Thursday night in the downtown studios of WLWT Cincinnati.Brown, a Democrat elected to the Senate in 2006, painted Mandel as a candidate spouting GOP talking points and beholden to special interests such the oil industry and Grover Norquist, a conservative activist whose pledge to not raise any taxes Mandel has signed.'You are beholden -- not that your chances of going to the
Senate are that high, Josh -- but you are beholden to so many of these interest groups before the election even,' Brown said.Mandel, 35, said he should be elected because Washington is broken and Brown exemplifies the reasons why."
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-- Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Republican Tom Smith meet today for their only debate. It will air statewide on Sunday.
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GOOD FRIDAY MORNING, October 26, 2012, and welcome to The Huddle, your play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news. Send tips, suggestions, comments, complaints and corrections to
mailto:swong@politico.com
swong@politico.com . If you don't already, please follow me on Twitter @scottwongDC.

My new followers include but are not limited to @Chris4AZ and @MichaelGrabell.

PANETTA WARNS AGAINST 'MONDAY-MORNING QUARTERBACKING' ON LIBYA - "Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said Thursday that he and top military commanders 'felt very strongly' that deploying American forces to defend against the fatal attack last month on the United States diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, was too risky because they did not have a clear picture of what was happening on the ground," Elizabeth Bumiller reports for the New York Times. 'There's a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking going on here,' Mr. Panetta told reporters at the Pentagon, adding that 'the basic principle is that you don't deploy forces into harm's way without knowing what's going on, without having some
real-time information about what's taking place.'"
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-- Speaker John Boehner demanded Obama provide more answers about what happened during the Libya attack. "Our country will not be able to move on from the tragedy of Sept. 11, 2012, until the public better understands the answers," Boehner wrote in a letter.
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-- Meanwhile, the Senate Intelligence Committee will hold hearings on the Benghazi assault after the election.
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MORAN'S SON FACES CRIMINAL PROBE - Seung Min Kim reports for POLITICO: "The son of Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.) faces a criminal investigation after a conservative group released a video of him appearing to offer advice on how to cast fraudulent ballots. Patrick Moran, who had served as field director for his father's reelection bid, resigned from the campaign hours after the video from activist James O'Keefe surfaced on the Internet earlier Wednesday. But officials at the Arlington County Commonwealth Attorney's Office and the Arlington County Police Department had been alerted to the video, which showed Patrick Moran talking about how to fake documents in order to cast ballots on behalf of 100
voters in Virginia."
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-- Pat Moran win's the Washington Post's "Worst Week in Washington" prize:
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McCASKILL, AKIN PROFILED - Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin get front-page billing in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch with dueling profiles by Kevin McDermott. He writes that McCaskill is seeking the common touch on the campaign trail, while Akin is sticking to conservative crowds.
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=517d82e5aee7277a7481ad361f4a1045d16e13cfb203dda7a2e90add7dc8e008 and
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=517d82e5aee7277a1d809a84ff83d07b64e736dd30b0681f00a75355149f4d24
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=517d82e5aee7277a1d809a84ff83d07b64e736dd30b0681f00a75355149f4d24 See the front-page here:
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THOMPSON'S UNEASY RETURN TO POLITICS - Neil King Jr. reports for the WSJ: "Tommy Thompson is learning how hard it can be to rekindle an old political love. Mr. Thompson ran Wisconsin for 14 years as its longest-serving governor, nurturing an image as a creative policy wonk and Harley-riding Everyman while breezing to re-election three times. But his governorship ended more than a decade ago. Now back in the fray of Wisconsin politics after 10 years in Washington, Mr. Thompson trails narrowly in his Senate race against Rep. Tammy Baldwin, one of the most liberal members of Congress. Pundits, pollsters and his fellow Republicans thought he'd win the contest handily, but Ms. Baldwin has
outspent the former governor and succeeded in damaging the positive image he still had in the eyes of many Wisconsin voters."
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D.C. LEADERS DISAPPOINTED WITH OBAMA - Ben Nuckols reports for the AP: "President Barack Obama carried the nation's capital in 2008 with 92 percent of the vote, and some local activists hoped he would push to give the District of Columbia representation in Congress and more autonomy in local affairs. Four years later, nothing has changed - the district still has a nonvoting delegate in the House, and its budget and laws remain subject to congressional review. Even Obama's staunchest local defenders are upset he's not more vocal on issues important to them. 'There are many things I agree with the administration on. This is not one of them,' said D.C. Councilmember Michael A.
Brown, a campaign surrogate for Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. 'I have been disappointed by their lack of leadership related to statehood efforts."
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THURSDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Marissa Smith, a speechwriter at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, was first to correctly answer that Presidents Taft, Hoover, Taylor, Grant, and Eisenhower had never previously held elected office.

TODAY'S TRIVIA - I've got a related question: Name at least three Senate candidates this election year (either the Democratic or Republican nominee) who have never held elected office before. First to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day's Huddle. Email me at
mailto:swong@politico.com
swong@politico.com .

WEATHER - Morning clouds and drizzle with some sun in the afternoon, according to ABC7's Brian van de Graaff.

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