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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

There has been much discussion about China's GDP surpassing the US. Less
attention has been paid to forecasts that India will become not only the
most populous nation in the world by 2025, but that by 2050 the size of
the Indian economy will also surpass the United States. Indian Prime
Minister Narendra Modi has enacted a slew of economic reforms since he
came to power in 2014. Inflation seemingly under control, last week
India's central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps. Manufacturing has
slowed, likely a result of dislocations caused by the GST and currency
reform. Is India about to enter a sustained period of slower growth? Is
Modi's government pursuing a two-track policy with China, with trade on
the front burner and border disputes simmering on the back burner? What
could go wrong, and what could go right with Modi's innovative economic
reforms? We've asked EconVue contributor Deepak Lalwani in London to
share his views. Register

https://econvue.com/user/register?destination=node/1353%23comment-form

to ask questions and comment on his panel. Links to his research can be
found below. Trade between China and India has increased significantly
(nearly 500% over the last ten years) but in 1962 the two countries were
at war. Tensions are again escalating and for the same
reasons--territorial disputes in the Himalayas. China's Ministry of
Foreign Affairs released a paper

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/P020170802542676636134.pdf

and held a press conference last week, outlining their claims that India
has violated its territory. Chinese media attention has reached a fever
pitch

http://www.news18.com/news/india/china-may-undertake-military-operation-to-expel-indian-troops-says-media-report-1483175.html

. In contrast to the North Korea impasse, both sides have differing
views on the status quo, increasing the chances that escalation will
continue. Politics is not the only area of disagreement; India's trade
deficit with China has increased and India has launched investigations
into a bevy of Chinese products. This is a space worth watching.
Ironically, the coming of winter could be a good thing. It will make
border conflict in an extremely remote corner of the world nearly
impossible to conduct.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

India-China

A Forgotten War in the Himalayas

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/forgotten-war-himalayas

Jeff M. Smith 9/14/2012 YaleGlobal Online

Historical perspective: The US aided India in its 1962 war with China,
taking firm stance on disputed border

India says talks on with China on Doklam standoff

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/OkxM8nbFR36GkOWm2Et0SM/India-China-border-standoff-Beijing-says-its-restraint-has.html

Elizabeth Roche 8/5/2017 Livemint How Long Can China and India Avoid War
in the Himalayas?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/02/how-long-can-china-and-india-avoid-war-in-the-himalayas/

Sameer Lalwani , Yun Sun , Liv Dowling 8/2/2017 Foreign Policy
India-China standoff: As war of words heightens, a look at trade between
two countries in 10 charts

http://www.firstpost.com/business/india-china-standoff-as-war-of-words-heighten-a-look-at-trade-between-two-countries-in-10-charts-3892963.html

Kishor Kadam 8/5/2017 First Post Is A China-Centric World Inevitable?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/rk2sayz3nydhbbw/170720%20Saran%20Lecture%2C%20Is%20A%20China-Centric%20World%20Inevitable.doc?dl=0

Saran 7/20/2017 India international Centre China, and Chinese history,
from an Indian perspective. Fosun's India plans catch wrong kind of
attention

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Fosun-s-India-plans-catch-wrong-kind-of-attention?utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_content=article%20link

Joyce Ho and Yasufumi Tsuge 8/2/2017 Nikkei Asian Review

India

India lowers interest rate after economic slowdown

https://www.ft.com/content/878d2066-776d-11e7-90c0-90a9d1bc9691

Amy Kazmin 8/2/2017 FT India coal growth has slowed significantly since
2015

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/08/02/india-coal-growth-slows/

Ashish Fernandes 8/2/2017 EnergyDesk Greenpeace Is Abenomics too late to
the Modinomics party?

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/Suti4Optik2kaW5SYedxXJ/Is-Abenomics-too-late-to-the-Modinomics-party.html

William Pesek 8/4/2017 Livemint Desi GPS NavIC Comes Closer To Becoming
Operational, ISRO And CSIR-NPL To Sign MoU

http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/desi-gps-navic-comes-closer-to-becoming-operational-isro-and-csir-npl-to-sign-mou-327161.html

Vishwa Mohan 8/4/2017 India Times

China

China's macroeconomic balancing act

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/07/23/chinas-macroeconomic-balancing-act/

Yiping Huang, Yan Shen and Quizi Fu 7/23/2017 East Asia Forum

China remains the only major emerging market economy that has not
experienced a serious financial crisis.

Winter is Coming for Chinese Mega Deals, But Chinese FDI Isn't Going
Away

https://macropolo.org/winter-coming-chinese-mega-deals-chinese-fdi-isnt-going-away/

Joy Dantong Ma 7/21/2017 Macro Polo A Brief Glimpse Into the Lives of
Chinese Bitcoin Miners

https://news.bitcoin.com/brief-glimpse-lives-chinese-bitcoin-miners/

Jamie Redman 7/17/2017 Bitcoin.com

U.S.

What Recovery? The Case for Continued Expansionary Policy at the Fed

http://rooseveltinstitute.org/what-recovery/

J.W. Mason 7/25/2017 Roosevelt Institute Linking demand & productivity.
Chart of the day: US oil production is rising and could hit a new
all-time record high by early next year

https://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-us-oil-production-could-hit-a-new-all-time-high-record-by-september/

Mark J. Perry 7/20/2017 AEI What 'Flash Boys' Brad Katsuyama thinks is
killing Wall Street trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/sectorwatch/what-flash-boys-brad-katsuyama-thinks-is-killing-wall-street-trade/A4906B47-64BB-427D-984D-404A2BB597E7.html

MarketWatch 7/24/2017 Video Do you know how Michigan regulates jobs?

http://www.mackinac.org/features/quiz.2017.07.aspx

Mackinac Center for Public Policy 2017 A house painter and a pilot
require the same number of hours of training in Michigan. Ancient
regulations are a drag on labor & occupational mobility across US.

World

A round-up of money trends in the main nations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a4t2-ncowU&feature=youtu.be

Tim Congdon July 2017 Institute of International Monetary Research Video
UK-based Inst. of Int'l Monetary Research says despite BIS, China's debt
not a problem. Money Supply Growth Falls Again, Dropping To 105-Month
Low

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4089319-money-supply-growth-falls-dropping-105-month-low

Ryan McMaken 7/21/2017 SeekingAlpha

Putin passes law that will ban VPNs in Russia

https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/30/putin-passes-law-that-will-ban-vpns-in-russia/

Catherine Shu 7/31/2017 TechCrunch VPN's are being banned in Russia too,
not just in China. Remember when we thought that the Internet would end
censorship and overcome control of information flows? 11 facts about
world population you might not know

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/11-facts-about-world-population-you-might-not-know/?utm_content=bufferacbd7&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Alex Gray 7/4/2017 World Economic Forum

Global population growth is wildly uneven. Africa has the healthiest
demographic profile for economic growth.

TEPCO chair: Treated water must be released into sea

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201707140020.html

Asahi Shimbun 7/14/2017 I'm sticking with Atlantic salmon. Radioactive
Fukushima plant water "must be released into sea." Manufacturing &
Supply Chains Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from
Producer Prices along the Supply Chain

https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/mb/articles/2017/subsiding-headwinds-strong-dollar

George A. Kahn and Nicholas Sly 7/13/2017 Fed Reserve Bank of Kansas
City A weaker dollar is easing inflation headwinds along the supply
chain. Measuring and analyzing the impact of GVCs on economic
development

https://www.brookings.edu/research/measuring-and-analyzing-the-impact-of-gvcs-on-economic-development/?utm_campaign=John%20L.%20Thornton%20China%20Center&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=54661489

Brookings 7/10/2017

The impact of Global Value Chains on economic development- especially
China.

Manufacturing innovation key to EM break out growth

https://www.ft.com/content/05f10e30-6199-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1

Louis Kuijs 7/21/2017 FT FinTech Bitcoin: Fake Asset or Security?

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/single-post/2017/07/26/Bitcoin-Fake-Asset-or-Security

R. Christopher Whalen 7/26/2017 Institutional Risk Analyst Initial Coin
Offerings: A new capital market takes wing, but not without controversy

https://www.spglobal.com/our-insights/Initial-Coin-Offerings-A-new-capital-market-takes-wing-but-not-without-controversy.html

John Kingston, Eric Turner, Thomas Zakrzewski and James Rilett 7/17/2017
S&P Global Cybersecurity's Next Frontier: 80+ Companies Using Artificial
Intelligence To Secure The Future In One Infographic

https://www.cbinsights.com/research/cybersecurity-artificial-intelligence-startups-market-map/

CBInsights Research Briefs 6/9/2017

Cybersecurity is the next utility.

ECONVUE RESEARCH

Recent Happenings in India

https://econvue.com/pulse/recent-happenings-india

Deepak Lalwani

https://econvue.com/experts/deepak-lalwani

Solar tariffs tumbled to a new low in May when SBK Cleantech bid Rs. 2.4
per unit for building a solar park in Rajasthan. Solar power companies
bid for the right to build projects on a land set aside by the
government for solar projects. The companies awarded the projects are
leased land at a nominal price – in return for the company selling power
at the lowest price per kilowatt hour. Despite tariffs going lower
overseas investors searching for higher yields are keen on such dollar
bond issues. PM Modi's commitment to dramatically raise renewable energy
output gives important comfort to investors. July 7 India Report

https://econvue.com/reports/deepak-lalwani/july-7-india-report

Deepak Lalwani

https://econvue.com/experts/deepak-lalwani

(Subscription content) India has long maintained a non-aligned status
and for several decades, under Arab pressure, kept its distance.
However, India now sees a mutually beneficially relationship with Israel
across several fronts. Data Round-Up: Vehicle Sales Continue to
Underwhelm

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-vehicle-sales-continue-underwhelm

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

(Subscription content) FMI's review of July Vehicle Sales. One driver of
the recent retrenchment appears to be reduced fleet sales to car rental
agencies. GM et al call this a strategic decision to focus on
higher-margin products but, mathematically, the demand for new fleet
vehicles is down as well

FOMC: Shrinkage Should Start in September

http://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/fomc-shrinkage-should-start-september

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

(Subscription content)

FMI's commentary on today's FOMC post-meeting. No surprises. As
universally expected, the FOMC left the funds target rate unchanged
today after raising rates in March and June.

IMF: The Global Economic Recovery is on Solid Ground

http://econvue.com/pulse/imf-global-economic-recovery-solid-ground

Karim Pakravan

https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

The IMF's message in its latest global economic forecasts (World
Economic Outlook, 7/24/2017) is broadly unchanged from its April
version. The global economic recovery is gaining momentum and broadening
in 2017, after a two-year slowdown. Global output is expected to grow by
respectively 3.5% and 3.6% this year and next. FinTech Investment Soars

https://econvue.com/pulse/fintech-investment-soars

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

Financial technology startups are on pace to see funding reach a record
as insurance, wealth management, lending and blockchain-related
companies attract new dollars," reports Bloomberg. Technology research
firm CBInsights, New York, shows in its Q2 2017 Global FinTech report
that FinTech firms have raised some $8 billion in the first half of this
year in 496 deals globally.

With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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