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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

The Federal Reserve Board of Kansas City's annual economic symposium has
begun in Jackson Hole this evening. The agenda for this year's meeting
"Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy" has just become available and may
be found here

https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp/symposiums/escp-2017

. The purpose of the symposium is to discuss emerging economic theories
and policy prescriptives, but in times of economic uncertainty it
assumes another dimension. Both the Federal Reserve and the European
Central Bank have recently announced plans to reverse quantitative
easing, and markets are keen to know details. I doubt there will be any
startling announcements prior to their respective September meetings.
Beyond the speeches, the real work of the conference will be on the
sidelines, as central bankers from around the world have multiple
opportunities to speak informally about the challenges they face.
Bleeding-edge monetary policy since the Financial Crisis has failed to
achieve a robust recovery, and some might argue, has delayed it. None of
the papers as outlined in the agenda appear to be directly focused on
monetary policy, but instead look to solutions based on competitive
markets, global trade, fiscal stimulus, and balanced growth. Many had
hoped post-election that fiscal stimulus, monetary easing's twin, would
have taken on some of this burden. Stymied by a lack of political
consensus, US infrastructure spending has decreased and in 1H 2017 it
was only 1.4% of GDP, the lowest level on record. Productivity in the
construction industry for example, has halved since 1960. International
trade has slowed and income inequality has worsened. In an ultra-low
interest rate environment, why has growth faltered, while debt has
increased markedly? What can be done to make growth more equitable and
balanced? These are the topics on the Jackson Hole agenda over the next
several days. I will be analyzing individual papers as they are
presented and will post links and my comments on Twitter @lyrichues

https://twitter.com/lyrichues?lang=en

.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

U.S.

USD: Jackson Hole Symposium to mark the end of the lull - BBH

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jackson-hole-symposium-to-mark-the-end-of-the-lull-bbh-201708210409

Sandeep Kanihama 8/ 21/2017 FX Street Is it the job of central banks to
"foster a dynamic global economy"- or provide stability? Not much more
stimulus they can supply. Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, on the risky
business of bank reform

https://www.ft.com/content/e7a9869c-819f-11e7-94e2-c5b903247afd

Sam Fleming 8/15/2017 FT Remarkable interview with Stan Fischer: US not
an anchor but a source of volatility, uncomfortable with rapid rise of
equities & deregulation. Public Works Funding Falls as Infrastructure
Deteriorates

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/us/politics/infrastructure-trump.html?smid=tw-share

Binyamin Appelbaum 8/8/2017 NY Times So infrastructure spending in the
US is actually falling. 6 reasons Congress shouldn't have any trouble
passing tax reform

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/345608-norquist-six-reasons-congress-should-be-able-to-pass-tax

Grover Norquist 8/7/2017 The Hill See Reason #5. The 2018 election. Does
Import Competition Induce R&D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3013441

Kaiji Gong and Rui Xu 8/10/2017 SSRN Walmart reveals the most bizarre
top seller in every state

http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-top-sellers-in-every-state-2017-8

Hayley Peterson and Skye Gould 8/16/2017 Business Insider This is
fascinating. Find your own favorite state, but the best seller in
Illinois is puzzle storage. World When easy money
stops: Normalising credit policies will strain system

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2017/august/when-easy-money-stops/?utm_source=OMFIFupdate

Desmond Lachman 8/23/2017 OMFIF How a German court opinion could speed
up the end of quantitative easing in Europe. Is Productivity Growth
Becoming Irrelevant?

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/is-productivity-growth-becoming-irrelevant#.WY8QFzsR8Dg.twitter

Adair Turner 7/21/2017 INET Economics Is productivity growth at odds
with human welfare? The new dynamics of financial globalization

http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-new-dynamics-of-financial-globalization

McKinsey Global Institute August 2017 The neoliberal road to autocracy

http://www.ips-journal.eu/opinion/article/show/the-neoliberal-road-to-autocracy-2046/

Ann Pettifor 5/17/2017 Int Politics & Society Absolute poverty has been
falling since 1820, most likely due to medical advances. Biggest decline
was from 1950-1970. As Japan looks for river of foreign talent,
landlords erect a dam

https://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/As-Japan-looks-for-river-of-foreign-talent-landlords-erect-a-dam?n_cid=NARAN11&utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_content=article%20link

Tsubasa Suraga 8/23/2017 Nikkei Asian Weekly

China

China's Property Slowdown Means Peak of Growth Cycle Has Passed

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-08-14/the-most-important-sector-in-the-universe-is-now-losing-steam

Bloomberg News 8/14/17 Xi loyalists grab the reins of pivotal projects

https://asia.nikkei.com/Features/China-up-close/Xi-loyalists-grab-the-reins-of-pivotal-projects?n_cid=NARAN012

Katsuji Nakazawa 8/16/2017 Nikkei Asian Weekly China Expected to Step Up
Use of Natural Gas

http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-08-18/101132543.html?cxg=web&Sfrom=twitter

Luo Guoping and Fran Wang 8/18/2017 Caixin Demand for coal and oil will
fall, pollution becomes political metric. The "One Belt, One Road"
project and the implications of Central Asia's water crisis

http://www.globalwaterforum.org/2017/08/17/q-a-the-one-belt-one-road-project-and-the-implications-of-central-asias-water-crisis/

Jesper Svensson 8/17/2017 Global Water Forum

ECONVUE RESEARCH

Data Round-Up: Fed Regional Surveys Are Upbeat for August

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-fed-regional-surveys-are-upbeat-august

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

FMI's analyses of this morning's August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
Index, July Industrial Production report and the latest Weekly UI Claims
and Rail Traffic results. Pay Attention or Pay the Consequences:
Investing in China

http://www.econvue.com/pulse/pay-attention-or-pay-consequences-investing-china

Marsha Vande Berg

https://econvue.com/experts/marsha-vande-berg

It doesn't matter if the corporate governance is black or white, when it
concerns Chinese companies -- stated owned or privately-held --
investors' due diligence is the only game worth playing. FinTech Waves

http://www.econvue.com/pulse/fintech-waves

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

Th is week's headline comes from a Bernard Lunn Daily FinTech column, in
which he charts three "waves" of FinTech development. Those waves fit my
own experience, though some of the milestones I would have picked are
different. I spent a lot of time this week looking at bank websites.
That, too, was a look back in time. No doubt that colored the links I
picked. I see in them the tension between the entrenched technology of
the past and emerging tech of the fut ure. I

https://econvue.com/pulse/india-celebrates-70-years-independence

ndia Celebrates 70 Years of Independence

https://econvue.com/pulse/india-celebrates-70-years-independence

Deepak Lalwani

https://econvue.com/experts/deepak-lalwani

De epak's latest commentary on India's political and economic status
while celebrating its 70 years of independence. He concludes that "
Despite future challenges and the journey ahead inevitably being filled
with bumps, it is felt with optimism that the best is yet to come for
Indi a." The Collapse of Venezuela and Its Impact on the Region

https://econvue.com/pulse/collapse-venezuela-and-its-impact-region

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

Th e situation in Venezuela is often mistakenly diagnosed as principally
a political or economic crisis. It is better understood as a criminal
act without precedent in Latin America: the capture and systematic
looting of a state, achieved by first capturing its institutions through
mass mobilization and bureaucratic machinations, then increasing control
of the state through military force, as the criminal nature of the act
and its consequences become apparent to the nation's citizen s. Japan's
corporate governance stymies sustainable investing

https://www.ft.com/content/3b4c34d0-7c0e-11e7-9108-edda0bcbc928

Nicholas Benes

https://econvue.com/experts/nicholas-benes

EconVue expert Nicholas Benes recent article in the FT: Many asset
owners have not been mobilised to hold boards and executives
accountable.

With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
https://www.econvue.com
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"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
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