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Today's Playbook Power Briefing presented by Chevron

By JAKE SHERMAN (sherman@politico.com; @JakeSherman), ANNA PALMER (anna@politico.com; @apalmerdc), DANIEL LIPPMAN (daniel@politico.com; @dlippman), ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


WE'RE IN FOR A LONG SEPTEMBER -- PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP said this morning that if Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell tied the debt ceiling to a Veterans Affairs bill it would've "been so easy-now a mess!"

LET'S BREAK THIS DOWN ...

-- LIFTING THE DEBT CEILING IS NEVER EASY. EVER. Since Republicans took the House majority in 2010, the debt ceiling has been lifted eight times. It's a bit easier in the Senate than the House, so let's focus on the House. Most of the time, the majority of House Republicans don't vote to lift the cap. For example, in 2015, 167 House Republicans voted no, and just 79 voted yes. In 2014, 28 voted yes and 199 voted no. House Republicans twice were able to muster big numbers: in 2012, 199 Republicans voted yes and 33 voted no when Congress promised to withhold pay from lawmakers should they not pass a budget. In 2011, 174 House Republicans voted yes and 66 voted no on the Budget Control Act, a
piece of legislation that set up steep budget cuts -- the sequester -- which President Trump has said he would like to reverse.

-- THIS IS A DEFINING ISSUE FOR REPUBLICANS. In recent years, Republicans have eased up on their demands on the debt limit because Barack Obama took a somewhat firm stance that he was not going to negotiate. But when Republicans came into the majority in 2010, John Boehner said Republicans should cut a dollar of spending for each dollar of a debt ceiling hike. Since then, there have been pitched battles over lifting the cap.

-- PAIRING THE VA BILL AND DEBT CEILING WAS DISCUSSED BUT DIDN'T GET TOO FAR. Yes, Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the White House discussed attaching the debt limit to a Veterans Affairs bill, but the discussions never progressed far enough for leadership to raise the issue with the rank and file. The discussions centered on the Senate attaching the debt limit to the VA bill, and then sending it to the House. It would've faced stiff resistance from lawmakers, who told us this morning that it would've forced them to choose between voting for veterans and voting to increase the debt cap.

RIGHT NOW, REPUBLICANS ARE IN A REALLY, REALLY, BAD SPOT. They have no plan, nothing on the horizon and very little time to get this done. They have president who is frustrated with Congress and distancing himself from GOP leaders.

THIS IS IMPORTANT: SO FAR, PRESIDENT TRUMP has not said what he would like a debt ceiling package to look like. Republicans tell us he needs to SAY he wants a clean debt ceiling increase if he does. That would help solidify support.

-- WHERE THE VOTES ARE FOR A CLEAN DEBT LIMIT: Republicans say a clean debt limit would get roughly 20 GOP votes in the House right now, and between 10 and 20 in the Senate. That's a long, long, long way from where they need to be.

-- DEMOCRATS have a lot of power here. They could withhold their votes unless Republicans agree to marry a debt-ceiling bill tied to one of their many priorities. For instance, Democrats have mused about tying debt-limit legislation to funding the Obamacare subsidies, which help defer the cost of health insurance for lower-income individuals and are aimed at keeping insurance markets stable. This will be Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's first big test in leading Democrats: whether he can keep an often divided caucus in lockstep to force Republicans' hand.

ALTERNATIVE THEORY -- Sen. Lindsey Graham told Hugh Hewitt this morning that Republicans should "make Democrats say no to raise the debt ceiling, no to funding the troops, no to helping veterans, see how many of them break. And I don't know why we don't do that. And I think that's what President Trump is saying."

"We should use our majority in a clever way," Graham said. "So if you had putting the country at default and building a wall, so that's like 0 for 2. Nobody wants us to default on the debt, and almost everybody wants to secure the border. That's a pretty good combination." He added: "The president is not crazy to attack the Congress. He's not crazy to think of ways to put Democrats in a bad spot regarding the debt ceiling. They do this all the time to us." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b721caa87f3fb7897bed6614962de71ad5e627742545661c69f0ee171b9e48e02d43e426e1367c732d418a1e3d528a3bb

-- REALITY CHECK: This is unlikely to happen. It would be a very dangerous game of chicken. Republican and Democratic leaders are unlikely to use the country's borrowing authority for purely political votes.

Good Thursday afternoon. THE PRESIDENT this morning again tried to dictate legislative strategy to Congress, slamming Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the process. @realDonaldTrump at 8:19 a.m.: "I requested that Mitch M & Paul R tie the Debt Ceiling legislation into the popular V.A. Bill (which just passed) for easy approval. They..." ... at 8:25 a.m.: "...didn't do it so now we have a big deal with Dems holding them up (as usual) on Debt Ceiling approval. Could have been so easy-now a mess!" ... at 9:42 a.m.: "The only problem I have with Mitch McConnell is that, after hearing Repeal & Replace for 7 years, he failed! That should NEVER have happened!"

MORE TWEETS -- At 8:41 a.m.: "The Fake News is now complaining about my different types of back to back speeches. Well, their [sic] was Afghanistan (somber), the big Rally....." ... at 8:51 a.m.: "...(enthusiastic, dynamic and fun) and the American Legion - V.A. (respectful and strong).To [also sic] bad the Dems have no one who can change tones!" ... at 9:10 a.m.: "James Clapper, who famously got caught lying to Congress, is now an authority on Donald Trump. Will he show you his beautiful letter to me?" He deleted and re-sent tweets several times to fix spelling mistakes and also retweeted a meme of him standing in front of Obama with the caption "the best eclipse ever!"


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SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS will give an on camera press briefing today at 2:30 p.m.

SPOTTED: Corey Lewandowski and Michelle Fields standing beside each other this morning at a crosswalk in front of Georgetown Four Seasons. "They just looked at each other and stood awkwardly pretending they didn't just see each other," per a tipster.

FOGGY BOTTOM WATCH -- "State Department: Endorsing two-state solution would make us biased," by the Times of Israel's Eric Cortellessa: "Committing to the two-state solution would bias Washington in Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts, a U.S. official said Wednesday, as a high-level delegation arrived in the region to try and jump start talks amid Palestinian protests over a lack of clarity from the White House. 'We are not going to state what the outcome has to be,' State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said. 'It has to be workable to both sides. That's the best view as to not really bias one side over the other, to make sure that they can work through it.'

"Her comments came as Palestinians have increasingly complained over the White House's refusal to endorse the two-state solution, breaking with longstanding U.S. policy and an international consensus." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566bf539bea7ce17137ecdc9fb73dbe653ff9ad18a078798e1985b1f83374d94c740f42ce1a8b15282adead3b53b94fee2ea

HMM ... -- "Ohio insurer fills Obamacare's last 'bare' county," by Paul Demko: "Every county in the country will now have at least one insurer selling Obamacare plans next year. CareSource agreed to offer coverage in rural Paulding County in Ohio, along the Indiana border that was the country's last remaining bare county, the Ohio Department of Insurance announced Thursday morning. Despite President Donald Trump's claims that Obamacare is 'dead,' and despite repeal efforts in Congress, the Ohio announcement is the latest evidence that the health care law's insurance markets are proving to be resilient." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b0a929287357f6f7b5cb2f0576d5d37f67df42820b58fc13d85a0e1ed02633e160143b4c0ff657852ef70fd7ee53b33d2

UPDATE ON THE NAVY COLLISION -- "Navy names 10 sailors missing since McCain collision, begins recovery operation," by WaPo's Anna Fifield: "The U.S. Navy on Thursday turned its search and rescue mission to find 10 missing sailors from the USS John S. McCain into a recovery operation, an acknowledgment that it does not expect to find any of them alive." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b6c4836d988915492c9a82432de2a80e0ad4161391671d4f5f8c55aea883bc3cfbca86a07f93100997ad822828971e65b

STORM ALERT -- From weatherbug @POLITICO_Steve: "BREAKING: The National Hurricane Center now expects #Harvey to strengthen into a major hurricane (winds 115 mph+). http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b2d12840bd7e057ae6b9dc516d48f09003f9a1092bfd1f24477825bfcaf89a3974f379d2419b19703d9bc332ba9be75ea ... From @NHC_Atlantic: '[L]life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards' are likely for 'portions of the Texas coast.' ... It's been 12 years since a major hurricane last made landfall in the U.S. - Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Five Floridians died; $21b in damage."

THE OTHER MONUMENT FIGHT -- "Parts of National Monument in Utah May Lose Federal Protection," by NYT's Julie Turkewitz and Lisa Friedman from the Bears Ears National Monument in Utah: "Parts of this sprawling region of red-rock canyons, towering mesas and ancient Native American sites in southeastern Utah could lose their strict federal protection as a national monument, under a recommendation that Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is expected to issue on Thursday. Shrinking the Bears Ears National Monument and reopening much of the land for possible mining and drilling would be widely seen as a direct blow to former President Barack Obama's environmental legacy, and the first major test of a
century-old conservation law. ...

"Native American tribes in the Southwest, who lobbied for years to get the Bears Ears region designated a national monument, are expected to fight any move to reduce its size. Charles Wilkinson, a professor of public land law and adviser to the tribes, called Mr. Zinke's expected decision 'an attack on a significant part of the foundation of American conservation law' and said, 'We have our complaint already ready to file.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b0b3c3074219316cf895b9e05f27ccc5cdf2d33b944268889857129ef0c085e3357ee28162af57c5b2d9b29ac435d39a5

-- ZINKE RESPONDS, via the AP: "Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke said he's recommending that none of 27 national monuments carved from wilderness and ocean and under review by the Trump administration be eliminated. But there would be changes to a 'handful,' he said.

"Zinke told The Associated Press that unspecified boundary adjustments for some monuments designated over the past four decades will be included in the recommendations he planned to give President Donald Trump on Thursday. None of the sites would revert to new ownership, he said, while public access for uses such as hunting, fishing or grazing would be maintained or restored. ... Zinke declined to say whether portions of the monuments would be opened up to oil and gas drilling, mining, logging and other industries for which Trump has advocated." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b8db852e1b4b632913dd89a34ea28c1adbf653d9925cbee99052e8d271c3067bcd56694c6d601eca449a2dacd58c8b293

BOOK ALERT -- "Former Vice President Joe Biden Reflects on 'Powerful Relationship' with Late Son Beau in New Memoir," by People's Tierney McAfee: "In Promise Me, Dad: A Year of Hope, Hardship, and Purpose, due out Nov. 14, the former vice president reflects on the death - and life - of his late son Beau, who died of brain cancer at 46 in May 2015, as well as the challenges he faced fulfilling his political duties while in mourning. 'I wrote this book because I wanted everyone to know what a remarkable man my son Beau was, and what a powerful relationship he had with his family,' Biden said in a statement to PEOPLE." With a picture of the cover http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566bc49ce7052c71bc3452884c27ac4caa6b9b6d3a260f36b620dd143de12e808ff9ab1f7e48d3759fb778efe2f5bf32c008

-- Jonathan Mahler, a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine and author of "Ladies and Gentlemen, the Bronx in Burning," is writing a yet-untitled book on New York City in the 1980s. It will be published in 2020 by Random House and "explore the intersecting trajectories of the iconic figures who rose to fame during the period, including Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani and Al Sharpton," according to a press release.

NEW "NATION" COVER STORY - "Trumpocalypse: The most dangerous people in America," by John Nichols, adapted from his new book "Horsemen of the Trumpocalypse" (out next week) with artwork by Steve Brodner: "Scott Pruitt: Mr. Secrets and Lies ... Stephen Miller: He Who Will Not Be Questioned .... Mick Mulvaney: The Director of the Office of the Military-Industrial Complex ... Kris Kobach: The King of Voter Suppression ... Sebastian Gorka: The Jihad Whisperer with the Anti-Semitism Badge ... Betsy DeVos: The Investor Who Got a High Return." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b08eb283c2fa427ca594284c474bf0bc1834188fa84114cb889b1178b4a82dabdf2f75e8db00dd8f47e183b9541a7f93f ... The cover http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566bd260e71a7b83db11f9ace955ca2e87125a868cb9b90ac3ada2d63e29f6b23fabb7be876e8e3c3f1843bc4d33a854f889 ... $10.99 on Amazon
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b9dfe77fd93c47045989da26386178971121ad2d86b52726d6c0da640e7529e3692ea0e12c97082453f81198d1502469c

MORE EAGLES! -- "White House shows off new West Wing renovations," by CNN's Betsy Klein: "The very minute President Donald Trump boarded Marine One for his working vacation in Bedminster, New Jersey, a team of more than 200 people began 17 days of much-needed renovations to the West Wing and the home's exterior. Working around the clock from his August 6 departure through his Sunday return, the team of multiple agencies, including the General Services Administration and the National Park Service, replaced the overworked HVAC systems, refreshed flooring, woodworking and paint, and made other cosmetic and infrastructural updates to the 'people's house.' ... The aesthetic aspects of the
renovation were inspired by motifs and medallions found on site, including the Greek key, flowers in the Rose Garden, Scottish masons' carved rosettes, and eagles." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b8d0b8e27fa5f1ab14bb9c658cff178c3c56a7d82baa1c9c247149a47f30adc9f14101f9a5081b27888b420fa178b3d0c

TODAY'S BEYOND THE BELTWAY -- Jury set for Menendez trial -- Illinois Gov. Rauner cleans house http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c45e5f51eaad566b568e9927390a1add4869d4614a19e712af4896e3764fcb5ee00fe64e9f256ae542fa0e070f7b37a2dbcb422d81a8c628

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