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02/14/2019 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Campaigns Pro subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

QUICK FIX
- President Donald Trump's campaign advisers have started to zero in on who they think are the front-runners in the Democratic primary.

- Howard Dean has been tapped to chair the Democratic Party's new data operation, which seeks to close the gap between the GOP's already centralized system and the Democrats' disparate efforts.

- Mark Kelly raised $1.1 million to start off his Arizona Senate campaign, while Democratic lawmakers and groups begin to take sides in the looming primary.

Good Thursday morning. A congrats to freshman Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) and his wife, Aly, who welcomed a new baby Tuesday. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, and lbarron-lopez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the 2019 election: 264

Days until the 2020 election: 628
THE TOPLINES
THE TARGET LIST - As many as 20 Democrats could vie for the opportunity to challenge Trump in 2020. But the president's team is focusing on three who could most likely be his challenger.

"The reelection campaign has begun compiling opposition research on Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Cory Booker and is eyeing opportunities to attack them," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. "Interviews with more than two dozen of the president's closest advisers reveal that the Trump operation is watching the opening days of the Democratic primary with a mix of relief over the field's sprint to the left, surprise over Harris' impressive launch, and trepidation over the prospect of Joe Biden and Sherrod Brown threatening Trump's Midwest stranglehold."

The Trump team also acknowledges that the list is fluid. And allies have started early polling, Alex adds: "America First Action, the principal pro-Trump super PAC, recently conducted a survey to see how would-be Democratic candidates would fare against the president in Florida."
IN THE TRENCHES
PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - Julián Castro is the only Latino running for president - but the only member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus who has endorsed him is his brother. "It isn't personal, according to interviews with CHC members," POLITICO's Nolan McCaskill reported. "The reluctance so far to commit to Castro, they say, is largely due to home-state loyalties or political caution in a race that's still taking shape." Nolan reports that neither Castro brother has lobbied CHC members hard for an endorsement.

- Warren named Roger Lau her campaign manager, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki reported.

- Biden has been reaching out to top donors to talk about 2020, CNBC's Brian Schwartz reported.

- New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand announced a bevy of senior staff hires, including Semedrian Smith as national political director, Danielle Duffy as chief operating officer and Gavrie Kullman as digital finance director, POLITICO's Elena Schneider reported.

BIG DATA - Dean, the former Vermont governor and DNC chief, will chair the governing board of Democrats' fledgling data operation, hoping to play catch-up to the Republicans, the AP's Bill Barrow reported. Veteran strategist Jen O'Malley Dillon will lead the operation, which will be independent and for-profit, per the AP. Some more details: "Party officials say the new model still allows state parties to withhold certain data from the central exchange if they choose and to sell their files to campaigns."

UP NEXT - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has talked to former Rep. Beto O'Rourke about running against GOP Sen. John Cornyn in 2020, Nolan also reported. A source close to Rep. Joaquín Castro said he'd support O'Rourke if he ran.

- Former Mississippi state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. is planning a run for governor, the Mississippi Clarion Ledger's Geoff Pender reported.

- Female Democratic activists in Colorado are discussing the importance of nominating a woman to challenge GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, Roll Call's Bridget Bowman reported. Also considering a run? Rep. Ed Perlmutter, who said he doesn't know when he'll make up his mind.

BATTLE BREWING IN ARIZONA? - Kelly may not have the Democratic Senate field to himself for too long in Arizona, if progressives have their way. Latino Victory Fund and Democracy for America are rolling out digital ads to encourage Rep. Ruben Gallego to get into the race, Campaign Pro's Laura Barrón-López reported. The new push also included an endorsement from fellow Arizona Rep. Raúl Grijalva.

But Kelly has rocketed to a strong start (get it?). His campaign said he raised $1.1 million as of Wednesday night. Kelly picked up an early endorsement of his own from Arizona Rep. Tom O'Halleran. But outside of gun control (he led the gun control group Giffords), climate change and a few other select issues, Kelly is "a candidate who is still ideologically undefined," HuffPost's Kevin Robillard wrote. Robillard also notes that Kelly voted in the Republican primary in 2012 (a spokesperson for his campaign said he voted for former President Barack Obama in the general election).

THE LATEST IN VIRGINIA - Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Kirk Cox, a Republican who is third in the line of succession for governor, said he is open to the idea of an investigation led by the legislature of allegations of sexual assault against Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Graham Moomaw reported. He said it would need to be "bipartisan."

- Vanessa Tyson, who alleged that Fairfax assaulted her at the 2004 Democratic convention in Boston, will meet with Massachusetts law enforcement officials, The Washington Post's Fenit Nirappil, Jenna Portnoy and Laura Vozzella reported. A representative for Fairfax said he would cooperate, and that he'd consider "filing his own criminal complaint in response to the filing of a false criminal complaint against him."

CONVENTION SPOTTING - Midwestern Democrats are making a hard play to get the 2020 Democratic convention in Milwaukee. "Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker has been involved in the behind-the-scenes overtures, offering up his own political muscle to lure the marquee political event to his neighboring state," POLITICO's Natasha Korecki reported. Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and Sen. Tammy Baldwin have been calling stakeholders to bolster the city's bid.

ET TU? - House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy denied that a since-deleted tweet he sent was anti-Semitic. The October 2018 tweet included a video with George Soros, Tom Steyer and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, all Jewish, and said we "cannot allow" the three "to BUY this election!" McCarthy said it "had nothing to do about faith. That was about Republicans versus Democrats," in an interview with Fox News, per POLITICO's Caitlin Oprysko.

THE GOLDEN STATE - Both parties are eying up California in the battle for the House. But who has the edge, with the president on the ballot? "Trump at the top of the ticket is the No. 1 handicap to Republicans in those districts," California GOP strategist Rob Stutzman told McClatchy's Kate Irby, referring to districts Democrats flipped in 2018. Other GOP strategists named CA-21 Rep. T.J. Cox and CA-45 Rep. Katie Porter as two top Democratic targets for Republicans to challenge.

VOTING IRREGULARITIES? - An unusually high number of undervotes in the Georgia 2018 lieutenant gubernatorial race is raising questions about the state's paperless, touchscreen system - and drawing a lawsuit to invalidate that race and conduct a forensic examination of voting machines, POLITICO's Kim Zetter reported: "The difference in undervotes between paper ballots and machine ballots is a sign that something was wrong either with the digital ballot layout - which may have caused voters to miss the race on screen - or with the machines, [voting machine expert Douglas] Jones said." This lawsuit is only the latest challenging the machines, as 2017 suits from election-integrity groups wind
their way through the judicial system.

(INTERNAL) POLLS POLLS POLLS - An internal poll for your scrutiny: A poll from Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear gives him a big lead against other Democratic hopefuls in the gubernatorial primary, Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reported.

CODA - FACT OF THE DAY: Reps. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) and Kay Granger (R-Texas) are the first two women to lead a House committee - Appropriations - since two women led the "Select Committee on the House Beauty Shop" in 1977, via CNN.

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