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10/17/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
THE BIG DEADLINE TAKEAWAY - If it wasn't already apparent, Democrats had a phenomenal quarter. So good, that 92 House Democratic challengers outraised an incumbent, my colleague Elena Schneider reported: "There is no historical precedent for financing this broad and deep for congressional challengers. About half of the 92 GOP incumbents are protecting battleground districts, and some of them posted personal-record fundraising totals in the third quarter of 2018 - but they still found themselves swamped by a combination of incandescent online fundraising for Democrats and bigger donors spreading money to challengers around the country, as 61 Democrats raised over $1 million. Fifty-one House
Republicans were outraised at least 2-to-1, according to POLITICO's analysis of the latest Federal Election Commission filings, while 71 were outspent by their challenger. Only five Democratic House incumbents were outraised. Meanwhile, 33 GOP representatives have less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers, while no Democratic members lag their Republican opponents in cash."

A count from the DCCC said that 115 Democratic challengers outraised their Republican opponent - which includes seats where the incumbent representative retired. A committee aide crowed to Score about the DCCC's efforts, saying the committee had digital strategists working with campaigns to help capitalize off viral moments and turn them into fundraising dollars, and had a dedicated entire team working to bring campaigns in some reach districts to viability.

MORE COMMITTEE NUMBERS - The RNC is set to post a major haul. POLITICO's Gabby Orr: "The Republican National Committee raised $56 million in the third quarter of the year, including $26.2 million in September-a record amount for one month in a non-presidential election year-according to new figures provided to POLITICO. "

Good Wednesday morning. The second Texas Senate debate between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke got contentious. As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 20

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Every day, gun violence kills 96 Americans, and wounds hundreds more. Everytown is galvanizing Americans to send the NRA - and the politicians in its pocket - a message: Not One More. In November, we'll elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **

POLITICO IS PARTNERING WITH THE MILKEN INSTITUTE to bring a special edition of the POLITICO Pulse newsletter to the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. Written by Dan Diamond, the newsletter will take readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators as they tackle today's most pressing health challenges. The newsletter will run Oct. 23-24. Sign up today to begin receiving exclusive coverage on Day One of the summit.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today: Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
IN THE TRENCHES
RUH-ROH - Or eyeball emoji, or three exclamation points, or whatever your go-to quote-tweet attention-grabber is: Senate Majority PAC is spending money in New Jersey. SMP went up with a new ad attacking Republican Bob Hugin, who is challenging Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. "Big pharma CEO Hugin backed Trump's plan that gives billions to drug companies," the ad, which my colleague James reports SMP is spending $3 million on (HuffPost's Kevin Robillard had it first), says. Hugin has made ethics complaints against Menendez a cornerstone of his campaign, but recently veered into unproven accusations that Menendez had sex with underage prostitutes, even after several women said they were paid to
lie about him.

MAJOR ERROR - Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, already locked in an uphill reelection battle against GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer in North Dakota, apologized after her campaign included several women without their permission in an open letter from sexual assault survivors that ran as an ad in local newspapers. More from James: "'We recently discovered that several of the women's names who were provided to us did not authorize their names to be shared or were not survivors of abuse,' Heitkamp said in a statement. 'I deeply regret this mistake and we are in the process of issuing a retraction, personally apologizing to each of the people impacted by this and taking the necessary steps to ensure this
never happens again.' ...

"The letter was signed by more than 100 women. But Say Anything, a conservative political blog in North Dakota, discovered Facebook posts from at least three women claiming they had not given the campaign permission to use their names, and were misidentified as sexual assault survivors."

DARK MONEY, STILL DARK - Despite court orders that raised the possibility of dark money groups having to reveal some of their donors, many were still shrouded in recent FEC filings (not to spike the football, but Score warned you that this would probably happen). POLITICO's Maggie Severns: "The Campaign Legal Center tracked 18 political nonprofits that spent money on the midterms between the court ruling and the end of September and could thus have donations to disclose. It found that 14 of those groups disclosed no information with the FEC on Monday. Four groups did disclose donors. But of those four, two revealed donations from other nonprofits - so the original person who donated the
funds was still not clear."

- CLC filed a complaint with the FEC alleging that Heritage Action for America violated the law by not disclosing donors.


POLLS POLLS POLLS - A new poll in WV-03 has Republican Carol Miller with a slim lead over Democrat Richard Ojeda in this district that Trump won by 50 percent. A new Monmouth University poll has her leading across all three models. She's up 48 percent to 45 percent in a standard midterm likely voter model. In Monmouth's Democratic surge and low turnout models, Miller is up 48 percent to 46 percent. The poll was conducted from Oct. 10-14 and surveyed 350 likely voters.

- Indicted GOP Rep. Chris Collins maintains a slim lead with under 50 percent support in a Siena College poll of NY-27. Collins leads Democrat Nate McMurray, 46 percent to 43 percent. The poll was in the field from Oct. 6-11 and polled 490 likely voters.

- Once again, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has a comfortable lead over Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke. In a new CNN/SSRS poll, Cruz is up, 52 percent to 45 percent. 716 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 9-13.

- In Oregon, Democratic Gov. Kate Brown has a five-point lead over Republican Knute Buehler. In the OPB/DHM Research poll, Brown leads 40 percent to 35 percent. The poll surveyed 500 registered voters from Oct. 4-11.

AD ROUNDUP - James, Daniel and I watched over 100 ads released Tuesday (no eye bleeding, I don't think); here they are. Some highlights: In Indiana, there's a bipartisan theme of owning the libs. An ad from Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly and an ad from the NRSC both criticized the "radical left". Notably, Donnelly also name drops former President Ronald Reagan in his ad. Speaking of former presidents in Democratic ads - former President George W. Bush's famous bullhorn speech at Ground Zero makes an appearance in South Carolina Democratic gubernatorial nominee James Smith's ad, where he talks about his military service.

Map expansion? In IA-01, both the DCCC (its ad) and CLF (its ad) went up in the district. Meanwhile, CLF also launched its first ad in FL-27, a Spanish-language ad criticizing Democrat Donna Shalala.

- FIRST IN SCORE - CLF launched three new ads. The first two ads land in North Carolina, going after two Democratic hopefuls on taxes. In NC-09, the ad ties Democrat Dan McCready to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. "They know the real McCready: another tax-and-spend liberal," the ad says, referring to spending from House Majority PAC. "Liberal McCready means less money for you, more power for Pelosi" (McCready himself said he won't support Pelosi for party leader). The second ad hits Democrat Linda Coleman in NC-02. "Career politician Linda Coleman supported higher taxes and fees nine different times," the ad says. A third ad targets Democrat Aftab Pureval in OH-01, trying to tie
immigration policy to the opioid crisis. "Aftab Pureval would make the [opioid] crisis worse," the ad said. "In Congress, Pureval would vote with Nancy Pelosi for open borders and amnesty, bringing more crime and drugs into our neighborhoods." (Pureval, too, has also said he won't support Pelosi for leader).

TRIAGE ALERT - House Majority PAC is pulling out of NE-02, where Democrat Kara Eastman is challenging GOP Rep. Don Bacon. Roll Call's Stephanie Akin: "The money the House Majority PAC had committed to support Democratic candidate Kara Eastman in Nebraska's 2nd District will now go to support Cindy Axne in Iowa's 3rd, the spokesman said. Election forecasters have seen that race as a slightly better pick-up opportunity for Democrats."

VOTING RIGHTS WATCH - Since the Supreme Court overturned key parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, areas with a history of discriminatory ballot access tactics have closed a disproportionate amount of polling places. VICE News' Rob Arthur and Allison McCann: "[A]n exclusive analysis by VICE News has found that these worries were justified. In the years following the Shelby decision, jurisdictions once subject to federal supervision shut down, on average, almost 20 percent more polling stations per capita than jurisdictions in the rest of the country."

THE CHIEF - If the Republicans don't hold the House and NRCC chair Steve Stivers doesn't return next quarter, what type of Republican should run the committee? Roll Call's Simone Pathe (click through for specific names floating around): "Is the best person to lead the committee someone who knows first-hand what it's like to run in a tight race? Or should it be someone, like Stivers or Oregon Rep. Greg Walden before him, who isn't defending a competitive seat and theoretically has more time to travel the country for other candidates?"

HACK-PROOF? - After disastrous cybersecurity breaches in 2016, the DNC has been working to bolster Democrats' defenses. POLITICO's Eric Geller: "Raffi Krikorian, the DNC's chief technology officer, is already pointing to one significant accomplishment - what he calls a massive overhaul of digital security at the committee and its sister organizations. [A] major flub [like ignoring the FBI] would not happen now, said Krikorian ... 'It would be surprising if a week went by and I didn't hear from one of the three-letter agencies in my inbox,' Krikorian told POLITICO during an interview at the committee's headquarters."

WINNING OVER TRUMP VOTERS? - Democrat Abby Finkenauer is trying to tap Trump voters to win in Iowa's 1st District. National Journal's Ally Mutnick: "Finkenauer is one of several Democrats running in demographically similar districts, from northern Maine to Minnesota's Iron Range, that have found a way to tap into Trump's appeal. Their campaigns offer a playbook for a party eager for electoral success in white, working-class areas: unapologetic economic populism paired with an authenticity that the blue-blooded president lacked."

BIG MONEY - Why is a super PAC targeting two safe Democrats, Delaware Sen. Tom Carper and California Rep. Anna Eshoo? Probably to hold on to a bipartisan label. The Intercept's Akela Lacy and Ryan Grim: Patients for Affordable Drugs "is spending $10.8 million on seven races this cycle. In three of those, the group is going up against Republicans, spending enough money to potentially affect the final outcome and elect a Democrat. In the two races where it is attacking Democrats, P4AD is essentially throwing money away ... (A P4AD spokesperson defended the group's spending decisions, saying they were made based on a candidate's voting record, not partisan affiliation.)"

2020 WATCH - Add another name to your almost assuredly running big board: former HUD Secretary Julián Castro told the Rolling Stone's Andy Kroll that "I'm likely to do it" when asked if he was running for president. "I believe that our country's going in the wrong direction and that it needs new leadership," he said. "I'll make a final decision after November, but I'm inclined to do it."

- If Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) runs, look for her to plot a primary path through the Southeast and the West. POLITICO's David Siders: "If she runs, she will attempt to stitch together a coalition of Democrats in those swaths of the country - what one adviser described to POLITICO as 'the SEC primary meets the West Coast offense.' ... [I]f Harris can win over black voters in South Carolina, the first Southern primary, her advisers believe she could then win a spate of early Southern primaries with high black turnout."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't believe anybody has ever had this kind of impact." - Trump on his effect on the midterms in an interview with the AP.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Americans want stronger, not weaker, gun laws - and elected officials are getting the message. No more school shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. This year, Democratic and Republican candidates are running away from the NRA and its dangerous, out-of-touch agenda.

Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who stand up for our communities by supporting common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that the NRA is out of touch - and out of time. NotOneMore.com **

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