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10/29/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
THE BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE - President Donald Trump has said a "red wave" is building ahead of the midterms. But behind the scenes, his administration is tacitly admitting that the GOP may lose the House. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "White House political director Bill Stepien wrote a three-page memo this week in which he outlined the political landscape confronting the GOP and bluntly warned that the party's prospects for the House are 'challenging.' ... [I]n the memo, Stepien attempted to divert blame from Trump toward several other factors that he said made a 'traditionally challenging year even more difficult.'

"He noted that dozens of Republican incumbents had retired, creating a plethora of vacant seats for the party to defend. Stepien also highlighted the fundraising challenges confronting the GOP, noting that 92 Democratic challengers outraised incumbent House Republicans during the third fundraising quarter. And he pointed out that the party in power historically suffers significant losses during a president's first midterm election."

IT'S PERSONAL - Trump has repeatedly lashed out against Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), holding him accountable for sinking Ronny Jackson's nomination to be VA secretary. Now, the president and his son are working overtime to beat Tester. POLITICO's Burgess Everett in Missoula, Mont.: "'Jon Tester talks a big game on vets. The only thing I've seen him do for vets is attack Ronny Jackson in the VA's office with unfounded allegations,' [Donald] Trump Jr. said at one of eight stops he is doing for [Republican Matt] Rosendale in the tight Senate race. ... Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who is close to both Trump Jr. and his father, said there are 'early plans' for the president to come to the state
again in the homestretch, though a visit has not been finalized."

Good Monday morning! One of the more memorable ads of the cycle, so far: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) saying he doesn't "join the mess" while a brawl is going on in a restaurant behind him. As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 8

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** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: The mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue was another reminder that gun violence kills 96 Americans and wounds hundreds more every day. We should be free to worship, attend school, go to nightclubs and live without the fear of gun violence. Let's elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **
IN THE TRENCHES
POLLS POLLS POLLS - GOP Rep. John Katko has a big lead over Democrat Dana Balter in a new NY-24 poll. The Syracuse.com/Spectrum News/Siena College poll has Katko up, 53 percent to 39 percent. The poll surveyed 500 likely voters from Oct. 18-22.

- Florida's gubernatorial and Senate races both remain close. In a NYT Upshot/Siena poll, Democrat Andrew Gillum led former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis 48 percent to 43 percent in the gubernatorial race. In the Senate race, Nelson leads Scott 48 percent to 44 percent. Both polls surveyed 737 likely voters from Oct. 23-27. NYT/Upshot also had a handful of House polls end over the weekend (PA-10, NY-11, UT-04 and IA-03) that were all very close.

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - Expect a robust rally schedule for the president in the week before the election. Axios' Jonathan Swan and Alexi McCammond with the schedule (based off "internal White House planning and could change"): "Oct. 31: Fort Myers, Florida. Nov. 1: Columbia, Missouri. Nov. 2: Huntington, West Virginia and an undisclosed location in Indiana. Nov. 3: Bozeman, Montana and an undisclosed location in Florida. Nov. 4: Macon, Georgia and Chattanooga, Tennessee. Nov. 5: Fort Wayne, Indiana and Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Another rally, on a date we haven't established: an undisclosed location in Ohio." One notable omission: North Dakota, where GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer has had a consistent
comfortable lead over Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in public polling.

- Florida Gov. Rick Scott will join the president at his rally in Florida on Wednesday. Scott, who is trying to knock off Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), has previously kept the president at arm's length while campaigning. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Scott has decided to return to the campaign trail by standing shoulder to shoulder with Donald Trump - a close ally whose support Scott has downplayed in recent months - when the president comes to Florida on Halloween. Scott announced after Hurricane Michael hit Oct. 10 that he was indefinitely suspending campaign trail appearances in his Senate bid against Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson so he could focus on storm recovery. ...

"But hurricane recovery is demanding less of Scott's time now, his fight against Nelson remains very close, Trump's approval ratings continue to marginally improve in the state and GOP voters appear enthusiastic enough to cast doubt on the widely held theory that a 'blue wave' of Democratic voters may swamp Republican hopes in the nation's largest swing state."

MEGABUCKS - Just 11 donors have kicked in more than $1 billion to super PACs in the past eight years, according to an analysis from The Washington Post's Michelle Ye Hee Lee. The 11 have "together contributed more than one-fifth of the $4.5 billion collected by [super PACs] since their inception in 2010. ... The largest super-PAC contributors are casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and physician Miriam Adelson, the married couple who have given $287 million ...

"In second place behind the Adelsons is [Tom] Steyer, who has given $213.8 million. He is followed by [Mike] Bloomberg ($123.4 million), Democratic media executive Fred Eychaner ($68 million), Democratic hedge-fund executive Donald Sussman ($62.9 million), Republican shipping-supplies magnate Richard Uihlein ($59.9 million), Democratic hedge-fund founder James Simons and his wife, Marilyn ($57.9 million), Republican hedge-fund executive Paul Singer ($41.9 million), Republican hedge-fund executive Robert Mercer ($40.9 million), [George] Soros ($39.4 million) and Republican backer and TD Ameritrade founder J. Joe Ricketts ($38.4 million)."


BATTLEGROUND WATCH - The NRCC is spending over $598,000 in TX-23, where Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is challenging GOP Rep. Will Hurd, per a Sunday FEC filing. The group had previously canceled all its buys through Election Day in what was then a sign of confidence, National Journal's Ally Mutnick reported earlier in October.

- The Congressional Leadership Fund went up with a $500,000 buy in Virginia's 2nd District, its first in the district. The ad targets Democrat Elaine Luria, who is challenging GOP Rep. Scott Taylor. "It's no wonder Pelosi and her allies are bankrolling Elaine Luria's campaign for Congress," the ad says.

- Independence USA PAC, Bloomberg's super PAC, is dropping $10 million in spending in battleground districts, per a Saturday FEC filing. It includes $2.7 million in NV-04, $1.9 million in NJ-11, $1.7 million in MI-08, $1.1 million in TX-07 and $913,000 in GA-07.

MIDTERM MESSAGING - It's all health care, all the time for Democrats in the home stretch. The New York Times' Trip Gabriel: "After years of running as far as they could from President Barack Obama's health care law, [Missouri Sen. Claire] McCaskill and vulnerable Senate Democrats in Florida, West Virginia and other political battlegrounds have increasingly focused their closing argument on a single issue: saving the Affordable Care Act. Now, with Republicans desperate to reposition themselves and come up with their own health care pitch, and with the elections roiled by gale-force winds on immigration and Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings, the question is whether health
care will be enough to save her and Democrats in other key Senate races."

ON THE AIRWAVES - FIRST IN SCORE - CLF is going up with a new ad in IL-13, targeting Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan over health care and tying her to state Democratic leader Mike Madigan. "She opposes middle-class tax cuts, and is part of the Madigan machine," the ad says. "Londrigan's husband even worked as Rod Blagojevich's right-hand man," it says, a reference to her husband's time as Blagojevich's chief legal counsel.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE... - The White House is mad at a close ally, the union representing border patrol agents, for endorsing three Senate Democrats. POLITICO's Daniel Lippman: "In allowing his union to endorse Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), [National Border Patrol Council Brandon] Judd behaved in a manner that was 'self-serving,' a Trump administration official said, 'rather than putting the Border Patrol first.' Judd appeared in TV ads for McCaskill and Tester. ... In response, Judd told POLITICO that his union, which is a member of the AFL-CIO, is not a partisan organization."

SELF FUNDER - Republican Mike Braun kicked his campaign about $1.1 million of his own money in his bid to unseat Donnelly, per a Saturday FEC filing.

WAY DOWN BALLOT - Forward Majority, a Democratic super PAC, is dropping $8 million in over 100 statehouse races. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "The Forward Majority spending will help Democratic state legislative candidates with mail and digital advertising. The super PAC is also conducting some opposition research against Republicans in the targeted districts. Forward Majority's targets are in Florida (including 32 state House districts there), Wisconsin (six state Senate districts), Arizona (5 legislative districts), Texas (35 state House districts), Pennsylvania (23 state House districts), and Michigan (8 state House districts)."

TIME FOR SOME GAME THEORY - The Rhode Island Democratic party sent out a mailer linking independent Joe Trillo, a conservative, to the president. Trillo is facing off against incumbent Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo and Republican Allan Fung and could be a drag on Fung. The message in the mailer, per the Providence Journal's Katherine Gregg: "A vote for Trillo for governor is another vote for Donald Trump for president ... Trillo even said he is running on 'Trumpian policies.'"

2020 WATCH - Brad Parscale is the man behind the Trump re-election machine. The New York Times' Maggie Haberman takes a look at how he'll be pulling the levers: Parscale "has developed a rhythm around Mr. Trump, waiting to present and then re-present ideas that he believes in but that the president has vetoed before. On other issues, he is given the freedom to make decisions without seeking nonstop inputs, and execute on them quickly, making him an anomaly in the Trump sphere. The autonomy is a byproduct of knowing he usually has the faith of the family."

And some 2020 staffing notes: "Chris Carr, the former party committee political director, will be political director for the campaign. Katrina Pierson, a longtime Trump political aide, and Andy Surabian, a former campaign aide who then worked in the White House, have been hired as advisers. Justin Clark, who was the 2016 deputy political director, and Bill Stepien, who was the national field director, are expected to leave the White House and join the campaign in some capacity. Mr. Clark now leads the Office of Public Liaison, and Mr. Stepien is the White House political director."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "My name is not a detriment, it's a plus," independent Robert Crook, who is running in NJ-11, to the New York Post.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: We stand with the families and survivors of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting as they grieve, but we must also honor them with action. No more shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. As the Tree of Life congregation's leader, Rabbi Jeffrey Myers, wrote, "we deserve better."

That's why Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who will support common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that Americans are fed up - and voting on gun safety. NotOneMore.com **

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