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11/01/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
THE CLOSER - President Donald Trump is touring battleground Senate seats in a bid to preserve the Republican majority, including two stops in Missouri targeting embattled Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. My Campaign Pro colleague James Arkin: "Perhaps more than any other Senate candidate in the country, Missouri Republican nominee Josh Hawley has nationalized his campaign, attempting to make it a pure referendum on McCaskill's status as a Democrat in a Trump state. ... Republicans believe the race has shifted dramatically toward Hawley in the last month and is now his race to lose. Hawley told POLITICO the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings 'crystallized' what was at stake in the election and
scoffed at a question about whether he disagreed with Trump on any issues, arguing the president's agenda has been good for the state.

"Democrats view the race as a dead heat, and believe McCaskill is well within striking distance if she can turn out the Democratic base and peel off enough Republican voters to eke out a win. They view Trump's two visits as a signal that Hawley needs a major boost, not as a sign of Republican strength. ... 'I think the race is really close. I think they do too,' McCaskill said at a campaign office in Kansas City last week when asked about Republicans' confidence. ... But Trump's visits will highlight McCaskill's narrow path to victory as she fights to both pick up votes in Missouri's conservative areas and energize her Democratic base."

- A story bouncing around Missouri right now: Two political consultants who now run Hawley's Senate campaign also helped operate his AG office. The Kansas City Star's Lindsay Wise, Jason Hancock and Steve Vockrodt: "Hawley's out-of-state political consultants gave direct guidance and tasks to his taxpayer-funded staff, and followed up to ensure the tasks were completed, according to emails, text messages and other records obtained by The Kansas City Star. Early in Hawley's tenure, for example, emails sent by the consultants to state staff laid out plans to shape the attorney general's image and agenda for the year ahead."

"The arrangement left some state-paid staffers confused about whether they answered to political consultants ... or to the attorney general's chief of staff. ... There are no records of either consultant being paid or reimbursed with state funds."

BIG FUNDRAISING HAULS - The DCCC has raised more than $100 million in online donations this cycle. Campaign Pro Editor Scott Bland: "The DCCC passed the nine-figure mark on Tuesday, one week out from Election Day, with an average donation of $19, according to a committee aide. ... The digital total comprises about 40 percent of the $250 million the DCCC has raised for the 2018 election as of its latest Federal Election Commission report."

- The Republican Attorneys General Association has topped $40 million this cycle, bringing in $8 million in October, Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reported.

Good Thursday morning. Clip and save this one: President Donald Trump said he's "not going to blame anyone" if Republicans lose the House, per my colleague Rebecca Morin. As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 5

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: The mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue was another reminder that gun violence kills 96 Americans and wounds hundreds more every day. We should be free to worship, attend school, go to nightclubs and live without the fear of gun violence. Let's elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **

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IN THE TRENCHES
POLLS POLLS POLLS - Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema and GOP Rep. Martha McSally are locked in a tight battle in new Arizona Senate polls. A poll from CNN/SSRS has Sinema leading, 51 percent to 47 percent (702 likely voters, Oct. 24-29). A Fox News/ Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research poll has the race deadlocked at 46 percent each (643 likely voters, Oct. 27-29). A third poll from the Republican firm OH Predictive Insights for the local ABC15 station has McSally up over Sinema, 52 percent to 45 percent (600 likely voters, Oct. 22-23).

In the gubernatorial race, GOP Gov. Doug Ducey leads Democrat David Garcia, 52 percent to 45 percent, in the CNN poll. Ducey leads Garcia, 55 percent to 37 percent, in the Fox News poll.

- Nevada Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen a slight lead over GOP Sen. Dean Heller in a new CNN/SSRS poll. Rosen leads Heller, 48 percent to 45 percent, while the Libertarian candidate pulls in 2 percent. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Steve Sisolak is up 1 point over Republican Adam Laxalt, 46 percent to 45 percent, with the Libertarian candidate at 2 percent (622 likely voters, Oct. 24-29).

- A Fox News poll has McCaskill and Hawley tied at 43 percent, with the Green Party and independent candidates getting a combined 4 percent (741 likely voters, Oct. 27-30).

- Indiana Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun are also in a close race. A NBC News/Marist poll has Donnelly at 45 percent to Braun's 42 percent, with the Libertarian candidate at 7 percent (496 likely voters, Oct. 24-28). A Fox News poll has Donnelly ahead by a larger margin, 45 percent to 38 percent, with the Libertarian at 5 percent (722 likely voters, Oct. 27-30).

- In a Fox News North Dakota Senate poll, GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer has a sizable lead over Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. He leads 51 percent to 42 percent (789 likely voters, Oct. 27-30).

- GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn has a decent lead over former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen in the Tennessee Senate race, according to a Fox News poll. She's up 50 percent to 41 percent (718 likely voters, Oct. 27-30).

- Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker and Democrat Tony Evers are tied in a Marquette Law School poll. They each have 47 percent, and the Libertarian candidate has 3 percent. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads with 54 percent to Republican Leah Vukmir's 43 percent (1,154 likely voters, Oct. 24-28).

- Democrat Tom Malinowski narrowly leads Republican Rep. Leonard Lance in NJ-07 two of the three models in a Monmouth University poll. In a standard midterm model, Malinowski leads, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a Democratic surge model, Malinowski is up, 48 percent to 43 percent. In a low turnout model, the race is tied at 46 percent each (356 likely voters, Oct. 25-29).

BIG MONEY - A new report from Issue One tracked the top PAC donors to leadership PACs operated by members of Congress. Some topline takeaways from their report: 35 PACs have given at least $500,000 to leadership PACs; and four companies' PACs have given over $1 million to leadership PACs - Honeywell, UPS, AT&T and Northrop Grumman.

DARK MONEY - A network of groups backed by the Democratic organization called the Hub Project, which is largely funded by dark money, has been trying to keep the election focused on legislative issues and not the president. The New York Times' Alex Burns: "With that money, the Hub Project - run by a former Obama administration official and public relations specialist, Leslie Dach, and Arkadi Gerney, a former political strategist for the liberal Center for American Progress - set up an array of affiliate groups around the country. ... Several Democratic operatives involved in the group likened its role to that of Americans for Prosperity, the conservative advocacy network funded by the
billionaire Koch brothers, during the Obama administration, albeit on a significantly smaller scale. ...

"Mr. Gerney displayed no ambivalence about using undisclosed contributions - traditionally a source of dismay for Democrats - to punish Republicans for last year's $1.5 trillion tax law and their attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. 'We don't believe in unilateral disarmament,' Mr. Gerney said. ... Mr. Gerney also confirmed that the Hub Project controls a super PAC of its own, Change Now, which has been funding advertising this fall against a smaller list of Republican-held districts that includes some of the same targets."


WALL STREET MONEY - With Democrats the favorites to take the House, Wall Street is giving cash to party moderates. Bloomberg's Elizabeth Dexheimer: "For the first time in a decade, the securities and investment industries are spending more on Democrats than Republicans ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections. Bankers are also giving to Democrats [but still give more to Republicans]. A big part of that is anti-Trump, but a lot of the money is flowing to moderate Democrats, a sign Wall Street is seeking Washington allies to temper the impact of progressives."

MYSTERY MAILERS - Mailers attacking Republican candidates from the right have popped up in a few states. The mailers, which lack disclosures, appeared in at least Indiana, Montana and Missouri, urging voters to back the Libertarian candidates. Who paid for the mailers remains a mystery, but The Washington Free Beacon's Brent Scher identified the printer for some recent mailers.

ANYONE HOME? - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, one of the main combatants in Republican primary fights of recent years, cut back its spending this cycle. POLITICO's Maggie Severns and Lorraine Woellert: "[T]he Chamber slashed its primary-season expenditures this cycle, spending just $3.6 million on political communications for its preferred candidates, compared to $11 million and $14 million in 2014 and 2016 respectively, according to federal election data. ... But Chamber senior political strategist Scott Reed said his group identified fewer primaries in 2018 that pitted moderates against less business-friendly conservatives, and the group felt its cash was not as critical in those races. It
instead shifted spending to support vulnerable Republican incumbents, he said."

BATTLEGROUND SPENDING - The DSCC is dropping at least $786,000 in the Minnesota special election, according to data from Advertising Analytics, on a buy starting today and running through Election Day. Republican Karin Housley is challenging DFL Sen. Tina Smith.

DEMS ON THE TRAIL - Former President Barack Obama is heading to Gary, Ind., to rally for Donnelly on Sunday.

- Oprah Winfrey is joining Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams for a pair of town halls and door knocking today, BuzzFeed News' Bim Adewunmi reported.

CAMPAIGN SHAKEUP - The campaign manager for Democrat Aftab Pureval, who is challenging GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in OH-01, resigned after Pureval said unspecified "new information" came out that did not live up the the campaign's "standards." Two additional staffers were dismissed. More from the Cincinnati Enquirer's Scott Wartman: "In an interview with The Enquirer, Pureval gave little additional information. He wouldn't say what the new information was. He also wouldn't reveal the identity of the two staffers."

CLEANUP DUTY - Donnelly is trying to clean up his own "binders full of women" moment after he flubbed talking about the diversity of his staff by saying "but" before complimenting them. POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "A low-key lawmaker not prone to making spontaneous comments, Donnelly said his phrasing was a mistake. ... 'I misspoke, I meant to say 'and' instead of 'but.' That would have communicated what I have tried to do my entire life: that I make a habit to seek out and promote people of color for both my campaign and official staff,' Donnelly said."

AD ROUNDUP - Another day, another shipload of ads, rounded up by yours truly and James. A tale of two Republican presidents: A Senate Majority PAC ad in Florida ties GOP Gov. Rick Scott to Trump (unfavorably), while an ad from former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen in Tennessee alluded to former President George W. Bush (favorably), saying Bredesen "didn't play politics" and helped the president "secure the border."

DIFFERENT JERSEY - Former Virginia Republican Sen. John Warner is backing Democrat Leslie Cockburn in VA-05, where she's facing Republican Denver Riggleman. "I'm still a Republican," Warner told the Fauquier Times' Jill Palermo. "You can't take that away from me. But you've got to have the courage to do what's right for the country and what's right for your state." Warner had previously supported Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine's reelection battle against Republican Corey Stewart.

2020 WATCH - The president's midterm rally push isn't just about the battle for the Senate; it's also a rough roadmap for his own reelection. POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago and Gabby Orr: "His final push will bring him to at least 28 counties - all but 10 of which he won during the 2016 contest. The focus on deep-red regions of the map points to a reelection strategy aimed at running up the president's rural votes to guard against losses in Democratic population-rich centers and places where his 2016 popularity may further diminish. ... The 2018 rally map is not a perfect reflection of 2020, though. Trump has yet to hit Michigan in the final weeks ahead of the midterms, which some
presidential advisers have been urging him to do. And the president's aides insist the best reelection strategy is still to do well in 2018."

- And speaking of Trump rallies: The president was in Florida Wednesday night rallying with former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis and Scott. Here's POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo's dispatch.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Who knows, maybe the DCCC will return our phone calls at this point," Democrat J.D. Scholten, who is challenging GOP Rep. Steve King in IA-04, told the Iowa Starting Line.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: We stand with the families and survivors of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting as they grieve, but we must also honor them with action. No more shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. As the Tree of Life congregation's leader, Rabbi Jeffrey Myers, wrote, "we deserve better."

That's why Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who will support common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that Americans are fed up - and voting on gun safety. NotOneMore.com **

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