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10/22/2018 08:01 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

TALE OF TWO TRUMPS -- President Donald Trump says publicly that the midterm elections are all about him. But behind closed doors, the president says it's House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) elections -- "and if they screw it up, it's not my fault," he has said, according to one person with knowledge of the talks. "Trump is distancing himself from a potential Republican thumping on Election Day," Gabby Orr and Daniel Lippman report. "He's telling confidantes that he doesn't see the midterms as a referendum on himself, describing his 2020 reelection bid as 'the real election.'"

Trump has expressed confidence in House Republicans maintaining their majority and Senate Republicans expanding theirs. "But in the event of an electoral blowout, Trump is poised to shift the blame a mile down Pennsylvania Avenue," they write. "A Democratic wave would be especially awkward for a president whose brand is success, and who boasts that his record in office is unmatched by any of his modern predecessors." If Republicans lose the House, an aide to a GOP member of Congress who speaks to the president often expects the White House to attack Ryan for serving as "a lame duck speaker instead of leaving" when he announced his retirement earlier this year. Much more:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf70320bee7f1a8ea7a78995145ffb0742b40b320d576bfbb330788d106ae840aebcb767fafb5b0bbd665

Related: "Republicans Hold Cash Edge Heading Into Final Stretch of the Midterms," by The New York Times' Kenneth P. Vogel and Rachel Shorey: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5286bd7086525fe69efe4d0046905639b063ff92e9d767df0074b3b0b5b32d1b124b1cff735c1ec49e74a0e4a762053a and "House Democrats' hope for wave election diminishes as Republicans rebound," from The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf7033db4a68f46de5d059f3a2488d79d0040f3a2481ca79c87ce89cb92d34b8f61440662a28042c15ada

DEAL OR NO DEAL? -- If Democrats retake the House, they could be poised to strike deals with Republicans on at least a few issues, ranging from trade and drug pricing to criminal justice reform and fixes to the tax law. After all, "two years of gridlock risks alienating the moderate voters both Democrats and Republicans want to woo ahead of the 2020 presidential election," Megan Cassella, Sarah Karlin-Smith, Elana and Aaron Lorenzo note. But the biggest X factor, according to a senior administration official, is whether Democrats will pursue investigations and impeachment ad nauseam or be willing to work across the aisle.

"Besides passage of a new NAFTA, one of the issues most likely to gain traction is drug prices -- a topic of big concern to the bases of both parties, as well as to swing voters," they write. "Moving forward on a trillion-dollar infrastructure deal, on the other hand, is almost surely a nonstarter, despite the enthusiasm professed by both sides. Coming together on a $1.5 trillion package that spends real money is virtually impossible unless Democrats and Trump can agree to raise new revenues, cut other programs or add to the debt -- all heavy lifts when the federal deficit is surging toward $1 trillion." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703b1750e3147b112e5b9140a8567a6a6b7c7e05642b940df00b2ccccf43b922364dc3c51b465b84695

Related read: "'Winter is coming': Companies brace for flurry of investigations," via Marianne Levine: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703a17e59456e7067e2e60b5157a737342f7952a2736469e2f8a2fe361b7e298989f87294e59c328831

NEW EXPECTATIONS -- Forget about winning the majority -- Senate Democrats would need to win more than a half-dozen competitive races to do that. They just want to limit their losses. "It's a far cry from a month ago, when Democrats saw a path to the majority opening wider as several battleground races trended in their direction," James Arkin reports. With Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's (D-N.D.) seat slipping away and Democrats trailing in Nevada and Tennessee, they "would have to turn around both of those races, carry Arizona, and then sweep largely conservative battleground races featuring incumbent Democrats -- Missouri, Florida, Indiana, Montana and West Virginia -- to win the majority."

Guy Cecil, chairman of the Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, is hopeful. "But I think we can acknowledge that it's a difficult map and that we've got to run the table," he said. Veteran Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau recommends viewing it as a four-year cycle. "Republicans have a lot of seats up and will have a lot to answer to come 2020," Mollineau said. "[P]arty strategists have started to cast their eyes further ahead, looking at the 2018 Senate battlefield as a margin game," Arkin adds. "Just how big the Republican majority will be ... could decide whether the GOP will cement Senate control for years or whether Democrats have the opportunity to wrest back the majority in
2020." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703fdd1b57e46b116639256e891ddf76a43bc28a4e27a4c58c76743b00b94e0264da2af930a762caecc

Related: "Senate GOP confident they will increase their majority in November," by Burgess: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5286bd7086525fe619a77319deca74c4ab500c7dcf64fe9414bb4d57b8b9d0e6686e83daa72145eab1bd00991fc325a6 and "Heller proves resilient against 'blue wave' in Nevada," from James Arkin: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf7035d1c3d7648f0e9e7b6cd92e19de99b118ef92670bc91ee5f51d584fc843437ae2ff978ff19889604

GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Oct. 22.

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CONGRESS SKEPTICAL OF SAUDIS' EXPLANATION -- The U.S. is investigating whether Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman directed the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said Sunday. Corker told CNN's "State of the Union" that the U.S. has invoked the Magnitsky Act, which "authorizes sanctions targeting individuals responsible for serious human rights abuses," Patrick Temple-West reports. "Lawmakers were universal in expressing doubts about the official explanation, which attributed Khashoggi's death to a fight that broke out in the consulate and which offered no credible explanation of why, for example, medical help was not sought for him. Turkish reports
indicated Khashoggi was dismembered after being killed."

"You don't bring a bone saw to an accidental fistfight," Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) said. "The Saudis have said a whole bunch of crap that's not right, accurate or true." Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) added on NBC's "Meet the Press" that "the crown prince has his fingerprints all over this" and the kingdom should "pay a price." Durbin suggested the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. should be expelled. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said nothing "of this magnitude" occurs without clearance from the top in Saudi Arabia. "We need to find out who that is and hold them accountable," Tillis said. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf70329b1a678cbd350561680b7778936a5afe953112292856ad2b0ab35143a2f2bc7878a64261663c245

Related read: "Saudi attempts to distance crown prince from Khashoggi killing haven't quieted uproar," per The Washington Post's Tamer El-Ghobashy, Kareem Fahim and Carol Morello: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf7037982e65ba62c4657a3f84688c0515de11264cef4ea1b1f7e6e9b97289d8354ddc60869622bbda2c2

TEXAS TAILGATER -- The president's reelection campaign said ticket requests for tonight's rally at Houston's Toyota Center with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) are so great that it will hold a "Big Texas Tailgater" outside the arena. "Texas is big, and so will be the turnout for our MAGA rally," said Michael Glassner, chief operating officer of the campaign. "We'll have great food, live music, big screens, and a great time for all of our guests. Inside and out, the excitement at this Trump rally will be as big as Texas -- it's going to be epic." The campaign said it's gotten more than 100,000 ticket requests. The arena, however, only seats 19,000 people. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703d2391879736c8a9954e2d54600fd173095436367f8dcf365b43f6016895e31d3c81b41417efd9986

Related: "Donald Trump learns to love his haters," by Christopher Cadelago: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5286bd7086525fe6d68da137c7f290e6505d0135d8722e387ec4bf58b6155fdd3ec245ea8745a74051e5bf8a99a698f2 and "The 'sniveling coward' and the 'maniac' are now allies, as Trump stumps for Cruz," from The Washington Post's Ashley Parker: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703df4c637021c4e9087a0b2f1522d82b358e3fc81eb8b241cabd0b4aba37ad42a5757a2b6d67952da9

TRUMP SIGNALS MORE TAX CUTS -- The president hinted that a "very major tax cut" for middle-income earners was forthcoming this month, even though both chambers of Congress are out until after the midterms. "There is no chance of such a plan passing even the House before the midterms, let alone the Senate, because Congress is in recess through the election," The New York Times' Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley write. "So the move appears to be an effort to give Republican voters a jolt of enthusiasm as the polls are opening -- and perhaps an acknowledgment of how small a boost Mr. Trump's signature tax bill seems to be giving Republicans in the battle to control Congress." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf70309080029a9454e6384dada65a56ebe6612782c2bcfde13d38def30bb8bfef03e4cbf45557f9243a9

TURNOVER MACHINE -- More than 70 lawmakers who were sworn in in January 2017 have already resigned from office, announced their retirement, lost a primary or ran for another office. "Add 30 House incumbents running for reelection in toss-up races, and it potentially could be a historically large freshman class," The Washington Post's Paul Kane notes. Eight GOP chairmen are retiring, and one is term limited. And only three top Democrats on any committee have served as chairman before. If Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) succeeds Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), he would tie Dennis Hastert as the least-experienced speaker in nearly 100 years.

Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has served as speaker before, but "most of those mentioned as possible rivals for speaker have even less experience than McCarthy," Kane writes. "Some lawmakers are headed for a big culture shock if Democrats win the majority. Just a third of the 235 Republicans have ever served in the minority, and only a little more than half of Democrats have ever served in the majority." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703a3d4e94f7147c87b46430fcf37f8ffc2004042e9704ad1af8283fb3f71a815380d0a5276f324c5ba

Related read: "Nancy Pelosi hints at short-term lease on House speakership," per the Los Angeles Times' Mark Z. Barabak: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703640fa0cece744bf7bcb9f7c0b1e8aa327c5a3552c690566eaf8bf4b7163173f6f3c86a483b088aec

MCCONNELL'S GIFT TO RED-STATE DEMS -- After a bitter Supreme Court confirmation battle, vulnerable red-state Democrats believe Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) gave them a political gift with his comments about Obamacare repeal and entitlement reform. "Endangered Senate Democrats are trying to turn the election away from [Justice Brett] Kavanaugh and the 'mob' that the president says their party incited, and toward bread-and-butter government programs that are popular with swing voters in conservative states," Burgess writes. "It's a message that resonates in few places more loudly than West Virginia, whose residents rely on government programs at higher rates than most other
states."

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said McConnell's comments are "absolutely ridiculous" and that his opponent, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, would vote to curtail those benefits "in a heartbeat." "It's too early to say whether Democrats have time to cut ads on McConnell's comments specifically, but the party has run paid advertisements on entitlements generally," Burgess adds. "And debate moderators are bringing up the GOP leader's views on the debt and benefits programs with regularity, making them a prime focus of the closing stretch." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf70318282f1f6148497b43fb87c7adb86c41e1bbdc021af38424cc16226a05a6560ba21fdbc1edc7c7a8

Related: "Joe Donnelly Runs to the Middle and Tries to Not Get Run Over," by The New York Times' Michael Tackett: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703f3cb1d2c19a4a3f5498b0d134cc5a39cf3521331b2e1012a1ce8109ee511c063274b918bf456e290

SENATORS THREATENED OVER KAVANAUGH SUPPORT -- A 74-year-old man from Long Island, New York, was arrested for threatening to harm two senators over their support for Kavanaugh. Ronald DeRisi "allegedly left more than 10 voice messages on the phone systems of two senators warning them not to vote for Kavanaugh, and then threatening to retaliate against them once the senators backed the controversial high court pick," Bres reports. In a call last month, DeRisi allegedly said he had a "present" for a senator: "a nine millimeter." DeRisi's lawyer, however, said he was diagnosed with a type of dementia and is "not dangerous to anybody." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7984d34b2bdbf703aa614d3a909e201c3f0f98fde824929200c81e167bf863adc45dfff246dffa6ae8ab74da2c074731

Related reads: "Man dumps Mitch McConnell's to-go box on Bardstown Road, witness says," from the Louisville Courier Journal's Lucas Aulbach: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5286bd7086525fe68d03602cdaa3abf823cbe5af865ac51503023e3a7126511e6801e2e6cdb74c05b2bc118fd1e755d6 and "Some Of Trump's Judicial Nominees Have Private Twitter Accounts They Aren't Sharing With The Public," per BuzzFeed News' Zoe Tillman: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5286bd7086525fe6f90eceb86355b3283acf6a8542e321f39b1ec50856d74d2e9b1501410fb2a3703637d3e3c3e60df8

RUNNING ON HATE? -- A new analysis identifies 80 candidates across the country who have expressed anti-Muslim sentiment through campaign ads or past rhetoric. Forty of them ran for Congress, and 23 made it to the general election, though 13 are incumbents. But the report, set to be released later this morning by the civil rights group Muslim Advocates, finds that running anti-Muslim campaigns "is a losing strategy," noting that most candidates "are on track to lose, if they haven't already." In fact, only one non-incumbent congressional candidate is projected to win next month: Tennessee's Mark Green. Much more on its findings: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5286bd7086525fe658046627dfa3d0f5d4c9f39273ee86aed3d9c3e56924260de4a55c817109efc32be7ebfbc6c7ba83 and the
report: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5286bd7086525fe628b6c3b0411b0ac2e62739abaefc48f141c7e61609eaeed86dbd14cd4286b0e609f0741317cd461c

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Don Sisson was first to correctly guess that John E. Barriere is the Clark University alumnus and Worcester, Massachusetts, native who as executive director of the House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee for more than a decade played an important role in the passage of the landmark civil rights legislation of the 1960s. He retired in 1984 after one last Hill job advising Rep. Richard Bolling (D-Mo.), who was chair of the Rules Committee. Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) is the Worcester native now poised to become the next Rules Committee chair.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Don: Which House speaker holds the record for utilizing the most closed rules in a single Congress, and what is the record number? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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