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The Evening: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Even the Losers and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Tuesday, October 16th.


** Saudi Arabia
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President Trump said today that Saudi Arabia’s crown prince told him he did not know what had happened in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul where dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi went missing two weeks ago. And as Reuters reports (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-politics-dissident-investigatio/turkish-police-leave-saudi-consulate-in-istanbul-witness-idUSKCN1MQ05C?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) , Trump said that the crown prince pledged that a full and complete investigation into the matter was underway.

The New York Times’ David Sanger report (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/us/politics/khashoggi-trump-iran-sanctions.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) s (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/us/politics/khashoggi-trump-iran-sanctions.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) that White House officials are worried that the apparent killing of the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and Saudi Arabia’s changing account of his fate, could derail a major showdown with Iran and jeopardize plans to enlist Saudi help to avoid disrupting the oil market.

Dive Deeper: “Déjà vu, Saudi Style (https://www.cfr.org/blog/deja-vu-saudi-style?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) ,” by CFR’s Amy Myers Jaffe.

“Khashoggi Case Could Be Death of U.S.-Saudi Friendship (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/khashoggi-case-could-be-death-of-u.s.-saudi-friendship?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) ,” by the Washington Institute’s Simon Henderson.

“The U.S.-Saudi Relationship Is Out of Control (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/trump-fault-jamal-khashoggis-disappearance/572797/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) ,” by the Wilson Center’s Aaron David Miller and Richard Sokolsky.


** Iran Sanctioned
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The U.S. today sanctioned a multibillion-dollar network of Iranian companies, banks and funds accused of financing the country’s elite paramilitary unit, ratcheting up global pressure on Tehran and sending a warning to governments and companies considering continued engagement with Iran, as the
WSJ’s Ian Talley reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sanctions-iran-finance-network-in-bid-to-scare-off-other-countries-1539712357?mod=hp_listb_pos2&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) .


** Honduras Warned
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President Trump today threatened to withhold aid from the Honduran government if it did not halt a mass migration of more than 1,500 people, mainly from Honduras, who crossed into Guatemala this week, many with the intention of reaching the United States, as the
New York Times’ Kirk Semple reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/world/americas/trump-immigrant-caravan.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) .


**
French Shuffle
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French President Emmanuel Macron announced a reshuffling of his cabinet today after a series of high-profile resignations and a dramatic drop in his popularity, as the Washington Post’s James McAuley reports (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frances-macron-reshuffles-his-cabinet-in-effort-to-quell-political-instability/2018/10/16/292eb0c8-cb0b-11e8-ad0a-0e01efba3cc1_story.html?utm_term=.b4606ab7d8b5&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) .


** Your Questions
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Do you have any questions about trade and how a changing U.S. trade policy may affect your life? If you do, please email me your question(s) to aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org?subject=Your%20Questions) . We’ll publish some of the best questions and get our experts to answer them on an upcoming CSIS podcast.


** Enroll for Spring 2019
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Now enrolling for the Spring, CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer a new Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.csis.org/programs/abshire-inamori-leadership-academy/executive-education/executive-masters-international?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** 700
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Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have carried out 700 drone strikes against forces of ISIS in Syria.

Source: AFP (https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2018/10/16/Iran-says-it-has-carried-out-700-drone-attacks-in-Syria-.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789)


** Critical Quote
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** "The MBS figure to me is toxic. He can never be a world leader on the world stage."
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— Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
CSIS's Trade Guys launched a new micro website that features trade trends, rules, lingo, history and more explained through short videos, hot takes, data visualizations and interactive graphs. Check out the new microsite here (https://csis.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=833ec271d60c6750d9c3baaac&id=187345abc8&e=e731b56470&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) .

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt
(Photo credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images). Actor Gerard Butler talks about his experience with the U.S. Navy during a news briefing about his new submarine action film “Hunter Killer” at the Pentagon yesterday.


** Recommended Reading
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"How Trump’s Trade War Is Driving China Nuts (https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/16/donald-trump-trade-war-china-221310?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) ,” by
Politico’s William Pesek.


** This Town Tomorrow
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At 2:00 p.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-great-delusion?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) , the CSIS Transnational Threats Project will host John J. Mearsheimer for the release of his new book, “The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities.”

Also at 2:00 p.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/csis-pertamina-banyan-tree-leadership-forum-vice-president-leni-robredo?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) , join CSIS for the CSIS-Pertamina Banyan Tree Leadership Forum, featuring Maria Leonor Gerona Robredo, 14th Vice President of the Republic of the Philippines.

And at 5:30 p.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/free-speech-and-national-security?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) , the International Security Program at CSIS will have a discussion on free speech and national security.


** Video
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Today CSIS hosted its annual CSIS-JETRO conference. Panelists discussed how Japan and the U.S. are shaping Asian economic integration. Watch the full event here (https://www.csis.org/events/or-without-you-how-japan-and-united-states-are-shaping-asian-economic-integration?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) .


** Podcasts
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Die Welt

In this recent episode of CogitAsia, experts discuss conflict resolution and development in the northeast Indian state of Nagaland. Joining the pod to provide an update on the peace process, state politics, and efforts to increase infrastructure and investment in Nagaland is Mr. Abu Metha, a journalist and political organizer who serves as the General Secretary of the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party in Nagaland.
Listen on SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/spotlight-on-nagaland-post-insurgency?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) or Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/cogitasia/id962095834?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) .


** Smiles
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“Even the losers, get lucky sometimes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBcBPMckeyM&t=0s&list=PLhnmhDNF1JJhf116CPQn0SR9mK2p717Le&index=20&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789) .”

Since you all liked the Tom Petty clip yesterday where he unveiled one of his “new songs” back in ’78, here’s another that’s hard to believe was once “new.” And the best thing about this clip is what Petty says as the band leaves the stage, “we don’t know any more songs so we gotta go.”
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=27ff7a029c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_16_04_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-27ff7a029c-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Emma Colbran, Brad Honigberg, and Jackie Ramsay.

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