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11/02/2018 08:02 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

MARK YOUR CALENDAR -- House Democrats are eyeing holding leadership elections on Nov. 28 and 29, according to multiple Democratic sources, though no date has been formally set. Democrats expect to win back the majority, so the timeline gives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) about three weeks after Election Day to corral enough votes to win back the speaker's gavel. But the size of the Democratic majority could determine Pelosi's place in the party. If she has the votes, Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Assistant Democratic Leader James Clyburn (D-S.C.) are expected to become majority leader and majority whip, respectively.

Clyburn is unlikely to challenge Hoyer for the No. 2 slot if Democrats win the House, but both leaders have expressed interest in running for speaker if Pelosi falls short. Other members have announced candidacies for lower-tier positions in leadership, including assistant Democratic leader and Democratic Caucus chair and vice chair. House Republicans will vote on their leaders for the next Congress on Nov. 14.

PELOSI'S POWER PLAY -- Pelosi is quietly courting Democratic candidates who have kept their distance from the Democratic leader this cycle but are most likely to win competitive races. The effort includes pushing donors toward the candidates and attending private fundraisers for those who can't be seen with her publicly. "While it's too early to say whether she would have the 218 votes to claim the speaker's gavel should her party claim House majority, Pelosi has clearly made inroads," Rachael and Elena Schneider report. Only 11 of the 43 Democratic challengers in districts POLITICO rates lean Democrat, likely Democrat or toss-up have said they'd oppose Pelosi for speaker.

But only four of those 11 confirmed they would vote against Pelosi on the House floor next year. "To ease her path, Pelosi has raised $6.7 million for 'Red to Blue' candidates trying to oust GOP incumbents," they write. "And she's sent more than 30 of her staffers out to toss-up districts -- including places where candidates have distanced themselves from Pelosi on the trail." Senior Democratic sources said some candidates haven't specified what it means to not support Pelosi. Voting against her in the private caucus election and voting against her on the floor are entirely different things. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc6713c4c86ddb59fcd8d9766049312e85c5abd9d63f6a7248a1b82e5d5bc2cf7e4a0912a9e70bde17

CBC SIGNALS NO. 3 ISN'T GOOD ENOUGH -- The Congressional Black Caucus wants one of its members elevated to speaker or majority leader. "Hoyer, especially, could be the one to face a potential challenger if the CBC backs up [Chairman Cedric] Richmond's threat," Bres and Rachael write. But Clyburn has no intention to challenge Pelosi for speaker or Hoyer for majority leader. He told POLITICO he's content returning to his former majority whip post. "One House Democratic aide close to the CBC suggested Pelosi could make a deal with the group to save her speakership if she lacks the votes to get back the gavel she lost in the 2010 GOP wave," they report.

The aide said having Pelosi back a CBC member over Hoyer "could help cushion any criticism that the next generation of leaders is being ignored." "It's incredibly unpopular to be an 80-year-old white guy at this moment in politics," the aide said. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc29a1f83d837c7b486c662951435757fd09882b0321da27cfdf3c5a623c824dc855dde8347b111af8

Related: "Jeffries or Clyburn? A fight could be brewing to lead House Democrats," by McClatchy's Emma Dumain: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc35398c340dd7ca182cdb07ad6819a366b647b3e9f353f00df4e390c8745d5386cd9c6fa9a3f14a8f

HAPPY FRIDAY! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Nov. 2.

THURSDAY'S MOST CLICKED: McClatchy's report that out-of-state political consultants helped direct GOP Senate candidate Josh Hawley's Missouri attorney general office was the winner.

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SENATE DEMS' JUDGMENT DAY NEARS -- Tuesday will answer two critical questions for Senate Democrats: Did Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) strategy to give red-state members as much room as possible to break from the party work, and can moderate Democrats survive in the Trump era? "The quintet of self-proclaimed moderates represents the most powerful bloc of centrists in Congress, as well as the cornerstone of any Democratic Senate majority in future years," Burgess and James Arkin write. "And at least four of these senators have an even chance or better to win re-election."

"The five senators" -- Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) -- "are taking desperate measures to emphasize their moderate virtues as Republicans call them Trump-hating liberals," they add. "Yet despite those tacks toward the center, Trump is doing all he can to hurt the staying power of political moderates. ... Trump has tried to blow up the senators' careful attempts to straddle both parties: If a lawmaker is for what the president does and says, that person is a conservative. Anything else is viewed by Trump and his supporters as the actions of a 'liberal.'" More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bcec09e20c39e568e436664cfe34af2738b481e11b6289db72105760275106311142bb39e03747c38a

Related reads: "GOP super PAC scales back spending in West Virginia's Senate race," from The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc37c5ba90d1744b39c2221d6eb29a7e9f10c4860c5f0ea868da3d4c5569dd5a7d846832e952185443 and "McCaskill accuses Hawley of 'potentially illegal' behavior," per James Arkin: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc08622bd0521c2a936828c8de07321a6f3c7b6ae126d80862f53a943fcc67b36cccd7245000fc66c3

GOP JOCKEYING -- House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) backs Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for speaker. But he isn't ruling out challenging McCarthy for minority leader if Republicans lose the House. "I haven't talked about all the things that might happen and what I might run for," Scalise said. "I said we need to focus on doing our job, we need to focus on keeping the House majority." Scalise signaled that House Republicans will focus on leadership elections after the midterms but said he'd rather keep the speaker's gavel in GOP hands than serve as minority leader or minority whip. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc86d2c2fc69410518b498ee97fac2712557808420de3590b714060d5f68b6eb281dd1f07e90b13963

Encouraged by House GOP leadership, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is running for Republican Conference chair. "If Cheney wins, it would make her a rising star in the Republican Party and the run for leadership puts the first-term lawmaker on a path to gain more prominence on Capitol Hill," CNN's Jamie Gangel and Clare Foran write. "Cheney has been all over the country fundraising for Republican candidates ahead of Election Day and has been an active fundraiser for members of her party since she came into office." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc57ba9f834b49d3bbb2f01354696d8f18b37a97ee58272a70fc33121c62111165f8f21d0eedecf3a0

TRUMP RECORDS ROBOCALLS -- President Donald Trump is partnering with the RNC to get out the vote, recording robocalls that will run through Election Day in nearly a dozen states. "Republican strategists and Capitol Hill staffers said they believe that many of the House races are within the margin of error, which means the race could swing for either candidate," the Washington Examiner's Robert Donachie writes. "The last-minute addition to the RNC's get-out-the-vote campaign is seen as a sign of how much the committee believes some of these races are winnable." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bcbf5ce37aa8dabc2a9b92678c40bf2f5f161035693e026ed72fa5aa2138f39488b7ee50b51cf01a6b

In places where the president isn't popular, Cabinet officials are being dispatched to boost candidates. "In the run-up to the midterm elections, Trump administration officials have been turning up in swing districts, not as stand-ins for the president but as under-the-radar emissaries to places where Trump is divisive," The Washington Post's Lisa Rein and Christine Loman write. "They're able to enter what is essentially Trump's no-fly zone, offering a softer pitch that could nevertheless serve as a lifeline for vulnerable Republicans." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc46d657f95bb28a734b42ff1809928d34d4807164058189ffbc7adb29b0f6c19eeb9e11dbaa00617a

Related: "Trump's Nationalism Is Breaking Point for Some Suburban Voters, Risking G.O.P. Coalition," by The New York Times' Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc032d3fcf1ad212e96191b5a5e9586a876713f136884307b4daefb4dc1b25937a91c56cebb5c23c15 and "As Midterm Vote Nears, Trump Reprises a Favorite Message: Fear Immigrants," from The New York Times' Michael D. Shear and Julie Hirschfeld Davis: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bcccfe3bea1732694572c15227ec5aba308ec85b71d4c72cc2a3430099232f0442604cba522c5283e5

TRUMP TOO SOFT ON IRAN? -- Hawkish Republican senators who think the president is too soft on Iran plan to introduce legislation this month forcing Trump to dramatically ramp up economic pressure on Iran. "Their goal is to make Trump side with his national security adviser, John Bolton, and overrule Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who argued for a more cautious approach," Eliana Johnson reports. "Led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), the lawmakers -- who typically cheer Trump's foreign policy moves -- expect that Trump will disappoint them when he rolls out new Iran sanctions Friday."

The legislation is likely to be cosponsored by Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). It would "press Trump to cut off several Iranian banks from the global banking network known as SWIFT, an acronym for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which banks worldwide use for international transactions," she writes. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) is expected to introduce a companion bill in the House. "Bolton argued internally that the new sanctions ... would only have teeth if they blocked Iranian banks from the SWIFT network," she adds. "But Mnuchin resisted Bolton's efforts." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bcc680d5be08eee14a434828ac43370003ce5d0df7a4fdd799354594733049a2f2819fa20ac875ea01

Related read: "Democrats Eye Trump's Tax Returns, With Mnuchin in the Middle," via The New York Times' Alan Rappeport: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc6c4ea6d3b63a61d3fae64fd186fbfcde8edb144e816b7a57f1fe8d228ab860992227e3e16c1a52ef

KING CHALLENGER FLUSH WITH CASH -- Democrat J.D. Scholten raised more than $641,000 on Tuesday and Wednesday for his race against Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa). "The fundraising spike came after a poll published Tuesday by the Democratic firm Change Research found Scholten within 1 percentage point of King," writes Zach Montellaro, who notes that King's campaign released an internal poll showing an 18-point lead. Scholten's campaign manager, Irene Lin, said the campaign will run a late TV ad blitz with the fundraising surge. The two-minute biographical ad will broadcast over the weekend and Monday. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bcf77d3f663a685f285388383cd41be8366d259687e4efbc1be0d5ab589eb45fe6028ce45d2b9bf7a7

Related: "This Former Minor League Baseball Player Thinks He Can Beat Congress's Most Notorious Racist," by BuzzFeed News' Lissandra Villa: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc7c67df217683b144486c0c4e03827ac3550f64fcceed2df242e7adc5801fb1fc809d665a56648141

MICHIGAN UNDERDOG GETS $1M BOOST -- Ending Spending Action Fund, a super PAC funded by the Adelson and Ricketts families, launched a $1 million ad campaign to boost underdog GOP Senate candidate John James. The ad, which began running Thursday, highlights the Iraq war veteran and businessman as a change agent while casting Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) as a figure of the past. "Independent polling has consistently shown Stabenow with a substantial lead," Alex Isenstadt notes. "But strategists with the super PAC insist the race is much closer and say they want to mount a final effort to put James over the top." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bc179f9efe6e866dadd22469ae776fa01b349599f425b740b84cbb142f7a95156e400bf25c80fa37a4

CORY'S LAW -- Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) can run for reelection and president in 2020, thanks to Gov. Phil Murphy, who signed a bill Thursday "that would clarify that a U.S. senator or member of the U.S. House from New Jersey can appear on the primary and general election ballots for those offices as well as for the presidency," Matt Friedman reports. "Even if Booker doesn't get his party's party nomination, the bill would still allow him to run for vice president and Senate at the same time should the Democratic nominee choose Booker as a running mate." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e4a2f169fcab27bcf399704d0a4fc47f9bd30fe9807daa8af6ed0e88f3decea02016169ac016e3bd3d6a4b885ef439e0

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

THURSDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Nick Magallanes was first to correctly guess that West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is the Senate candidate this cycle who is currently suing a company both he and his wife represented as lobbyists.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Nick: There is a tomb in the U.S. Capitol. Who was it built for and is anyone actually buried there or elsewhere in the Capitol complex? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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