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Presented by Charter: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington Nov 01, 2018 View in browser
By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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ALERT ... THE PRESIDENT is going to speak about immigration in the Roosevelt Room at 4:15 p.m. today, per the White House.

HOUSE STATE OF PLAY ... NYT'S JONATHAN MARTIN and ALEX BURNS with a Houston dateline: "Trump's Nationalism Is Breaking Point for Some Suburban Voters, Risking G.O.P. Coalition": "If the 2016 election hinged in large part on a rightward shift among working-class whites who deserted Democrats in the presidential race, Tuesday's House election may turn on an equally significant and opposite force: a generational break with Republicanism among educated, wealthier whites - especially women - who generally like the party's pro-business policies but recoil from strident, divisive language on race and gender.

"Rather than seeking to coax voters like these back into the Republican coalition, Mr. Trump appears to have all but written them off, spending the final days of the campaign delivering a scorching message about preoccupations like birthright citizenship and a migrant

'invasion' from Mexico that these voters see through as alarmist. He amplified his fear-peddling Wednesday night with an online video that is being widely condemned as racist, showing a Mexican man convicted of killing two California deputies with a voice-over saying 'Democrats let him into the country.'" NYT

THE LATEST ON JAMAL KHASHOGGI -- "Saudi crown prince described slain journalist as a dangerous Islamist in call with White House," by WaPo's John Hudson, Souad Mekhennet and Carol Leonnig: "In the call, which occurred before the kingdom publicly acknowledged killing Khashoggi, the crown prince urged Kushner and Bolton to preserve the U.S.-Saudi alliance and said the journalist was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, a group long opposed by Bolton and other senior Trump officials. ...

"A person familiar with the discussion said Bolton did not signal he endorsed the crown prince's characterization of Khashoggi during the call." WaPo

BIG JON HUNTSMAN PROFILE ... DESERET NEWS' JESSE HYDE in Moscow: "The last statesman: Can Jon Huntsman Jr. keep the art of diplomacy alive in the time of President Trump?": "The big items Huntsman had hoped to accomplish when he came to Moscow, like renegotiating the nuclear arms treaty, remain unfinished. Huntsman told me there were two reasons for this.

"The first was Washington. Big diplomacy items require Senate approval, and that wasn't going to happen with the Mueller investigation and questions about Russian interference in elections looming. The second problem was the Kremlin. When I asked him what surprised him most about the Russians, his face soured. 'How intractable they can be,' he said. ...

"On my last night in Moscow, Huntsman summoned me to the Spaso House. He was hosting a concert for diplomats stationed in Russia and wondered if I could arrive a few minutes before the reception. ... He began by asking me not to print something he had told me. Ambassadors can't make political statements, he said. And then he told me he had cancer. 'It's just stage 1,' he said. 'So we'll probably get it taken care of, and we'll be fine.'" Deseret News

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- WAPO'S JOSH ROGIN (@joshrogin): "Today in Miami, John Bolton will announce a new policy toward Latin America to confront the governments of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, calling them the 'Troika of Tyranny.'"

CNN'S KAITLAN COLLINS, ELISE LABOTT and KEVIN LIPTAK: "Heather Nauert is Trump's top choice for U.N. ambassador": "President Donald Trump has told advisers that Heather Nauert, the State Department spokeswoman, is his leading choice to become US ambassador to the United Nations and he could offer the post as soon as this week, two sources familiar with his pick told CNN. ... Nauert has been keeping a low profile this week after meeting with Trump on Monday. Two of her daily briefings have been conducted by her deputy." CNN

Good Thursday afternoon. AXIOS CEO JIM VANDEHEI pressed PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP on his hot rhetoric toward reporters, and the prospect of someone in the media getting shot. The 58-second clip

SPOTTED: Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle on the same Delta flight from JFK to Phoenix. Pelosi was in first class, and Trump and Guilfoyle were in coach. They did not speak. ... Scott Pruitt flying first class from Atlanta to DCA. Pic

WHAT'S ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 10:09 a.m.: "Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!"

THE LATEST ON PITTSBURGH -- AP'S MARYCLAIRE DALE: "Synagogue suspect pleads not guilty as more funerals planned"

-- AP'S JAY REEVES in Birmingham, Ala: "Days after synagogue massacre, online hate is thriving": "On Wednesday, four days after 11 people were fatally shot in the deadliest attack on Jews in U.S. history, anonymous posters on another website popular with white supremacists, Stormfront, claimed the bloodshed at Tree of Life synagogue was an elaborate fake staged by actors. The site's operator, a former Ku Klux Klan leader, said traffic has increased about 45 percent since the shooting.

"The anti-Semitic rhetoric was just as bad on another site popular with white supremacists, The Daily Stormer, where a headline said: 'Just go, Jews. You're not welcome.'

"Trying to stop the online vitriol that opponents say fuels real-world bloodshed is a constant battle for groups that monitor hate, and victories are hard to come by. Shut down one platform like Gab, where the shooting suspect posted a message shortly before the attack, and another one remains or a new one opens." AP

-- WAPO'S JOHN WAGNER: "Tree of Life rabbi says he saw a 'warm and personal side' to Trump that surprised him" WaPo ... The CNN interview

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2018 WATCH ... 5 DAYS OUT -- "Republicans bring in their Senate closer: Donald Trump," by James Arkin in Cape Girardeau, Mo.: "President Donald Trump will rally Missouri Republicans against [Sen. Claire] McCaskill twice in the last five days of the campaign - the final pieces of a months-long GOP effort to nationalize the race against the two-term Democrat in a state Trump carried by 19 points in the 2016 election. The president will appear in Columbia on Thursday, and his final scheduled rally of the 2018 midterms will be here in Missouri's conservative southeast on Monday, just nine hours before the polls open on Election Day.

"Missouri is one of several states where Senate Republicans are leaning on Trump to either cement a victory or shift the tide in their favor just before Election Day. The president will also rally twice each in Indiana and Florida and once in Montana, Tennessee and West Virginia. GOP candidates are pairing the late rallies with Trump-focused closing arguments on TV - the party's nominees in Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and West Virginia are airing late ads featuring clips of Trump supporting them and bashing their opponents." POLITICO

-- A TALE OF TWO CHAMBERS -- FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: "Democrats Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The Senate" ... "Democrats Can Get Close To A House Majority With Suburban Seats Alone"

-- NYT'S MATT FLEGENHEIMER and SYDNEY EMBER in Akron, Ohio: "'When You Think You've Got It Figured Out, It Flips': Democrats Puzzle Over Retaking Ohio": "Few statewide results were more alarming to [Democrats] than Mr. Trump's eight-point victory here - one point shy of his margin in Texas - reinforcing concerns that what was once a consummate purple state had shaded solidly red, taken with the president's fiery zero-sum populism.

"On the surface, then, there are two surprises about the Democratic effort to dig out: For one, their nominee atop the ticket, [Richard] Cordray, is almost ostentatiously un-Trump, a progressive former federal regulator and 'Jeopardy' champion running with the enthusiastic endorsement of Elizabeth Warren. For another, they actually believe they can win this time in the state's top races - for the governorship, in a Senate contest and perhaps in a House battleground or two." NYT

-- WSJ'S MICHELLE HACKMAN: "Republicans Court Asian Voters With a New Message: End Affirmative Action": "Benjamin Yu, a Chinese immigrant and combat veteran in Lake Forest, Calif., has long resisted identifying with either political party. ... Few issues have swayed him more than the use of race in college admissions, a practice Mr. Yu finds discriminatory-and which, he has noticed, more Republicans are raising in their campaigns. ...

"As a bloc, Asian-American voters tend to favor Democrats-65% voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, while 27% favored President Trump, exit polls showed. And although they are one of the country's smallest demographic groups, they are also the fastest-growing, making their support a prize sought by both parties.

"The politics aren't simple: Though many Asian-Americans tend to take liberal positions on issues like immigration and gun control, polls show, some conservative activists have gained footholds on certain causes, chiefly against affirmative action." WSJ

CASH DASH -- AP'S JULIE PACE and LISA MARIE PANE: "Rare drop in NRA election spending as gun-limit groups rise": "The NRA has put $11 million into midterm races this year - less than half what it spent four years ago in a campaign that gave Republicans full control of Congress. This year's totals are also far below the $54 million the group spent in 2016 on both the presidential and congressional races.

"The shift comes as spending to support tougher gun control measures has surged. Everytown for Gun Safety, a group founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, pledged $30 million for this year's election, and has continued to put new money into competitive races in the final days." AP

NYT'S SHANE GOLDMACHER: "Andrew Cuomo Has Limitless Ambition. What's He Going to Do With It?"

WSJ'S STEPHANIE ARMOUR: "Health Law Faces Its Toughest Stress Test Yet": "The Affordable Care Act's sixth open-enrollment season begins Thursday, marking a test of the health law's stability following a series of Republican efforts to roll it back. The sign-up runs through Dec. 15 for coverage beginning on Jan. 1, 2019, the first year when consumers won't face a financial penalty for forgoing health coverage. ... This is also the first open-enrollment period under a Trump-administration change expanding access to cheaper plans that don't cover the panoply of benefits mandated by the ACA. ...

"Both of these changes could weaken the exchanges where millions of Americans who don't get insurance from an employer or government program go to obtain coverage. Health analysts say the moves will likely siphon off younger and healthier consumers who are needed to offset the health costs of older, sicker people remaining on the exchanges." WSJ

WAPO'S JEFF STEIN (@JStein_WaPo): "Larry Kudlow, president's top economic adviser, to @costareports: 'A federal minimum wage is a terrible idea. A terrible idea... Idaho is different than New York. Alabama is different than Nebraska. That's why the federal minimum wage doesn't work for me.' Calls it 'silly.'"

TRADE WARS -- "In U.S.-India Trade, Trump Sees Only Harley-Davidson," by NYT's Vindu Goel in Mumbai: "On Friday ... India will decide whether to impose or again delay tariffs on American almonds, apples, walnuts and processed metal products in retaliation for the Trump administration's decision in March to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Next week, President Trump and his advisers will have to decide whether to penalize India for failing to abide by his Sunday deadline for all countries to stop importing oil from Iran. ...

"Yet Mr. Trump has voiced little interest in such policy questions or the rounds of negotiations that have kept the two countries from an all-out trade war. Instead, he has been publicly riveted by one small pawn in the game: India's tariffs on a few hundred high-end Harley-Davidson motorcycles sold here each year." NYT

WAPO'S CAROL MORELLO and MISSY RYAN: "U.S. says the time to end the Saudi-backed war in Yemen is now"

AFTERNOON READ ... ROBERT WORTH in NYT MAG: "How the War in Yemen Became a Bloody Stalemate -- and the Worst Humanitarian Crisis in the World": "Dahyan, a town in the far northwest of Yemen, is a farming settlement about two hours' drive from the Saudi border. ... It was here that a laser-guided bomb dropped by a Saudi jet struck a school bus taking students on a field trip on the morning of Aug. 9, killing 44 children and 10 adults. ... Shrapnel and tiny limbs were scattered for hundreds of yards around. The bomb that hit the bus, several local people told me, bore markings showing it was made in the United States. ...

"For most Americans, the Saudis' choice of Washington as the place to announce their first major war in decades held little meaning. In Yemen, people mentioned it all the time. They saw it as a deliberate signaling of sinister complicity between America and its Saudi client, or even of some larger imperialist design.

"[In late March 2015, then-Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir] emphasized in his speech that the kingdom had consulted 'very closely and very intensely with many of our allies and partners around the world, and in particular the United States,' which was providing intelligence, targeting assistance and logistics. The truth was somewhat different. The Obama administration agreed to support what the Saudis called Operation Decisive Storm with considerable reluctance, seeing it as an unwinnable proxy war against Iran." NYT Magazine

DEEP DIVE -- MICHAEL KRUSE in POLITICO MAGAZINE: "Donald Trump's Long, Strange Relationship With the 'Elites'"

MEDIAWATCH -- "Tech and Media Website Recode to Be Folded Into Vox.com," by WSJ's Benjamin Mullin: "Vox Media publisher Melissa Bell said in a memo that Recode would relaunch as a section of Vox.com starting next year. Recode will continue to exist as a brand and business, and Recode's staff will report to Vox Editor in Chief Lauren Williams ... Recode's traffic has declined in recent months, as some of the site's marquee journalists have left the company for jobs at other news organizations." WSJ

TRANSITIONS -- Deirdre Latour will be Pearson's chief corporate affairs officer. She previously was chief communications officer and senior adviser to the CEO at General Electric. ... Ashley Varner is now VP of communication and federal affairs at the Freedom Foundation. She was previously executive director of ALEC Action.

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Brendan MacArthur, marketing manager for POLITICO Pro, married Sanchi Khare, attorney/associate at Covington & Burling. The couple wed in Milwaukee and met when they were randomly paired together in class for an "icebreaker" exercise at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Pic ... Another pic


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