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11/07/2018 08:04 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

DIVIDED GOVERNMENT -- The next Congress will feature a Democratic House majority for the first time in eight years. But on the other side of the Capitol, Republicans in the Senate will get some breathing room after positioning themselves to expand their narrow 51-49 majority last night. Democrats carved through Republican-held suburban districts where President Donald Trump is toxic to finally regain some power in Washington. "From Florida to Texas to Illinois, Republican incumbents who survived reelection in 2016 even as Trump lost their districts fell decisively to Democratic challengers who linked them to the president and attacked their votes on health care and taxes last year,
delivering a check-and-balance message to the president," Elena Schneider writes. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=478c7a1690f965c4b45cc98c18085c11c974839c40cfb680c9d98fe65f73f30284b40c0987b9479cd1ea2dba08322370

For all the talk about a blue wave, "Republicans rode a red wave in Trump country Tuesday night, keeping control of the Senate and handing ... Trump a partial victory in his first midterm election," James Arkin notes. Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), the GOP's most vulnerable candidate, fell to Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.). But Republicans capitalized on a favorable map, as GOP candidates knocked off Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and are narrowly leading in Florida, Arizona and Montana. Another close race, Mississippi's special election, is headed to a runoff between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) and Democrat Mike Espy. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cfe3ac03b059ac094c2321649cfd363078f14c6497b84ed91eef7d13d3fc6729d89e69c2bb127e471

The early-morning numbers: Democrats have won 220 House seats, Republicans have won 194 seats and 21 are undecided. Democrats have flipped 29 seats, while Republicans have flipped just two. Republicans have secured control of at least 51 Senate seats and are leading in four races. Democrats have control of 45 seats. House results: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146ca98b9adb3e941811da2a427a1fd9a447e4e5ec927f0a9f26eebc53d7fd7ffc0b379c8d7d47df7c5c and Senate results: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cf1e8786aaef8bd37acccd42d3b16fd3006117354d67d2c5ec75cd1f2fbf59760ccc484bfff682916

The tick-tocks: "'Please Stop Saying Red Wave': Inside Democrats' Takeover of the House," by Tim Alberta and Elena Schneider: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c50d767f531c0420584a44034f1ff1b76b9a4808728b0add0f37826c794634f52bf3570420c6666ce and "'Pretty ballsy': How McConnell and Trump blew away Senate Democrats," from Burgess and James Arkin: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c962bad22ab95485a494c16f1ad89a2b42044acf358c89c4a887b0c7c6417961a0d159b89eb28ed86

Related: "7 takeaways from a wild midterm election," by Steven Shepard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cf7239502c3d0a7f12c03bfcd1bf1874bcc1f334c49ce993b516bcd49c022e0de46b00a217d3fe6ac

PELOSI, CONGRESSIONAL PROBES AND IMPEACHMENT -- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is expected to formally announce her run for speaker sometime today. She has three weeks to win over 218 Democrats to win back the speaker's gavel, which "would make her the most important Democrat in the country -- and favorite foil for Trump -- until Democrats pick their 2020 presidential nominee," Bres and Rachael point out. "Trump called Pelosi Tuesday night to congratulate her on the Democratic victory and the two talked bipartisanship, but the conflicts ahead will be heated." In her speech last night, Pelosi said Democrats' victory was about restoring checks and balances and stopping an
"assault" on health care.

An aggressive, progressive Democratic majority is likely to clash with Trump and Senate Republicans, setting the stage for two years of legislative gridlock as both sides jockey ahead of the 2020 election. "Trump and senior administration officials are also sure to be subject to a wave of Democratic-run investigations," they write. "Incoming Democratic chairmen already have a list of subpoenas and document requests they want to issue, while more strident progressives in the Democratic Caucus may push for Trump's impeachment, especially depending on what special counsel Robert Mueller's probe concludes." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c9590e767f6707113cd7e29aec2b0d440f0a61e9f0088d96d3ba07ba200e829aa87d4a1321b8417d5

Related reads: "Where Newly Elected Democrats Stand on Nancy Pelosi Speaker Bid," from Roll Call's Lindsey McPherson: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cb3cd7180702629d0c65184e99b19c93338a8411eb6f34d02d139e2e349966b2b4560fe016a578424 and "Trump's Narrative vs. Pelosi's Subpoenas," via John F. Harris and Charlie Mahtesian: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c0ab59eac0819f3a7d8880fe4cec9613bdac6daae2c5e234485e728f2d8c5a1f56cf0e4478153aedd

MCCONNELL TIGHTENS GRIP -- Life gets easier for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), whose caucus could have as many as 55 members once all the votes are tallied. "McConnell can now focus even more intensely on the upper chamber's bread and butter -- what he calls the 'personnel business' -- by confirming dozens more federal judges to lifetime appointments and keeping Trump's Cabinet fully stocked," Burgess and Elana report. "The Republican gains in Tuesday's midterms will also allow Trump to cut loose more of his Cabinet should he choose to do so... But the GOP's resounding success in Senate races doesn't mean their legislative lives will get easier next year."

With Democrats in control of the House, Obamacare repeal and additional tax cuts are off the table. To be fair, though, a lot of legislation Democrats pass will die in the Senate. "The new House Democratic majority is likely to pass bills on campaign finance regulation, gun control and the environment, and McConnell's biggest source of strength will be his ability to grind that legislation to a halt," they write. There are opportunities, however, for bipartisan action on infrastructure and criminal justice reform. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cab9e1ccf420e408995f1116a9101eb84082f3476f3c8eff2d3377c2657db43a7140a0aac95300be7

Related: "What can get done in a divided Washington," by Megan Cassella, Nancy Cook and Gabby Orr: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c5cc916778a41b5143c1cb23961a1d630443103d500e3304f5b862b34b7bdf34ec7e17bb6cb6843ea

HAPPY WEDNESDAY! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Nov. 7.

TUESDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Charlie Mahtesian's report on the places that would seal President Donald Trump's midterm fate was the big winner.

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FOR YOUR RADAR -- The president will hold a news conference in the White House's East Room at 11:30 a.m. to discuss "our success in the Midterms!" he tweeted.

TRUMP CLAIMS 'TREMENDOUS SUCCESS' -- Republicans lost the House, opening up Trump and the White House to vigorous oversight of his administration after voters across the country rendered their verdict on the first two years of the Trump era. "But to hear the president and his allies tell it, the winner of the election was President Donald Trump himself," Christopher Cadelago and Andrew Restuccia write. Trump, in fact, claimed Tuesday was a "tremendous success." Republicans did have great success in Senate races, which was Trump's focus in the closing days of the campaign as he traveled to boost GOP candidates in Trump country.

"Trump's role as the upper chamber's savior, as he is spinning the results, will reverberate beyond his first midterms because it preserves Republicans' ability to stock the federal courts with conservative judges," they add. "But the GOP's failure to hold the House was an undeniable blow, despite some Trump allies musing privately that Trump might benefit from having a newly empowered enemy to vilify. Divided government effectively quashes Trump's hopes for an active legislative agenda in the next two years. And Democrats armed with subpoenas will likely demand everything from Trump's tax returns to more information about his 2016 campaign's contacts with Russia." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c30dfffee4fa7118cf2ddd552f11f9073d1c189bc9b2b75feccc3dc0a2464e8471974ca82b9879c3f

Related reads: "An election of bragging rights -- and disappointment -- for both parties," from David Siders: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cbb8bc49955a902fe22641b59d03ecaeb587118bd4ed1709e79518cdd7eea8a391121a014abcb0865 and "Conservatives now wonder if transactional Trump might leave them in the cold," via The Washington Post's Robert Costa: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cc7cf8ff33d39e8d08b7304390d700ae7f7b15a4aa7575b1ad5d17afc8004619b2ae31e66b7c77374

TRUMP 2020 BEGINS -- The president watched election returns alongside two key allies: his campaign managers of the past and present, Corey Lewandowski and Brad Parscale. "Starting [today], Trump -- who has already spent the past several weeks firing up crowds of supporters -- will turn his full attention to his own 2020 re-election campaign, which aides and associates say will be close to all-consuming over the next two years," Eliana Johnson, Alex Isenstadt and Alex Thompson report. "With divided government making further legislative accomplishments almost impossible, they predict Trump will leverage the full power and pomp of the White House behind his own political survival." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cbeea0ff5084cbdebe418cb9c5a8af96fcf2fc2b5ed9d424ca71d9a50454f342b407ec1345d479c77

Related: "2020 presidential candidates who could take on Trump," by Brent D. Griffiths: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cc13b8d234f8c13116dce77db663fcb8a103ebf2608ab6924cae9453400b4982c5275eff2c0a5e8c1

OBAMACARE REDEMPTION -- Democrats ran on Obamacare and won -- in House, gubernatorial and state-level races. "Voters in three states also approved Medicaid expansion through the ballot, defying Republican officials who long refused the program," Alice Miranda Ollstein and Adam Cancryn note. "The validation of a law that cost Democratic candidates for almost a decade puts the party in an almost unimaginable position two years after Donald Trump's election made repeal seem inevitable." Democrats are already planning to investigate the administration's efforts to undermine Obamacare and pass legislation shoring up its consumer protections and insurance markets. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c3d699cdfe3b5de3d6337a3eb39ca730f96c9411fe1734e594a79cb6ad1b59b66881ee77e47561bc6

HISTORY MADE -- The next Congress will see a lot of history-making members. Deb Haaland (D-N.M.) and Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) are the first two Native American women elected to Congress. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) are the first two Muslim women elected to Congress. And Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is the youngest woman elected to Congress at age 29. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c3bc29f1c6ce52c5d1a3ab69bbf2dd1fb11c3fe69b6b7dfd89ed0412d64bde046e6f73f0a464f2dd2

Abby Finkenauer (D-Iowa), who ousted GOP Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa), is also 29 but turns 30 in December. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) is the first black woman to be elected to Congress in Massachusetts. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) and Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) are the first Latinas to be elected to Congress in Texas. Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.) is poised to become the first openly gay governor in the nation. And Rep. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) is the first woman to be elected governor in South Dakota. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c469ec18207937778736c2d2cd79c65c8d59ff0c8c3f9b489fe4f36845e090f7a5954866354153a7d

Related read: "Voters send record number of women to Congress," from Elana: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cf350a2736b0c60f1ad14279ee6d530e1646aeff648dd9879ead7ed9068ecf127ef986a651ea43bf2

HOW TRUMP-ENDORSED CANDIDATES FARED -- You can't win them all. But Trump-backed candidates have at least won more than they've lost. "Trump boldly proclaimed that he was on the ballot Tuesday, even if his name didn't show up in any voting booths this year," Rebecca Morin writes. "And his effort to make the midterms a referendum on his presidency produced favorable results, although a number of Republicans he endorsed were in safe races. All told, his record of endorsements on Tuesday was 48-32, with a handful of elections still too close to call." The scorecard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146ce7300520640665997439dc1ae035b5005b5bde7bd64f335fde4a58ef513a02c8197e8e4d686c8c51

DO INDICTMENTS MATTER? -- Reps. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) and Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) won reelection despite both facing federal indictments (Collins for insider trading and Hunter from misusing campaign funds). "Meanwhile, Sen. Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, survived a tough re-election bid amid dismal approval ratings following his federal corruption trial that ended in a hung jury," CNN's Ashley Killough and Maeve Reston write. "While the Justice Department filed to dismiss charges against Menendez, he was still admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee for accepting gifts without proper approval from a wealthy ophthalmologist and returning in kind with political favors." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146cc92e1b47d4120963d112e176152f33cc864fa72dcf2da8cfb13e79ddec906c2b021092fc1e8bb29b

OUSTED INCUMBENTS -- All good things must come to an end. And for at least four senators and several House members, their time on Capitol Hill will soon be up. Alex Guillén with a "guide to the incumbents who will be cleaning out their offices over the next couple of months": http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b1119d48a6a146c0643d717a562d2105d6d06104f4c4193bb730311963a7b88437572ee4f65a93793a906528d6c8580

TRANSITIONS -- Mike Telliga is joining Amway as senior principal for federal affairs. He most recently served as chief of staff for Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.)

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

TUESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Cory Bisbee was first to correctly guess that 1844 is the last time a presidential election was held on Nov. 1. James K. Polk beat Henry Clay.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- Before former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), who was the last person to serve in Congress before becoming governor of Florida? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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