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10/31/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
DEMS RELY ON WOMEN - If Democrats take the House, it will likely be because of a surge of women voters. POLITICO's Elana Schor and Steven Shepard: "College-educated women favor Democrats over Republicans in 69 swing House races by 27 percentage points, according to a Washington Post/Schar School poll released earlier this month. And 78 percent of Democratic women reported themselves as 'very motivated' to vote in an average of the past three weeks of POLITICO/Morning Consult polling - greater than for Republican women (65 percent), Democratic men (72 percent) or Republican men (72 percent).

"Though no single metric can gauge female Democrats' motivation levels ahead of next week's midterms, a Swing Left survey of its members who most regularly respond to calls for phone banking, canvassing and other volunteer efforts found that 73 percent were women. It's not just volunteering that women are doing in greater numbers: The nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics found in March that 31 percent of donations to House candidates were from women, a high-water mark since the group began tracking data in 2000."

- A major key in this election? White women with college degrees are no longer voting like like men without one, with the former breaking for Democrats and the latter for Republicans. The Wall Street Journal's Aaron Zitner and Dante Chinni: "Once, the political outlooks of white men without a college degree and white women with one were similar. In recent years, the groups, which represent about 40% of voters, have moved sharply apart. ... Among the women, the share who want Democrats to lead the next Congress is 33 percentage points larger than the share favoring GOP control. The men, by contrast, favor Republicans by a net 42 points."

Good Wednesday morning. Check out these videos: The first from my colleagues Reena Flores and Derek Robertson, where they talked to the makers behind one of the most talked-about ads this cycle: Rep. Paul Gosar's (R-Ariz.) siblings speaking out against him. The second is the latest in our "The Midterm View" series, where Eugene Daniels and Mary Newman look at how the president's policies are playing out in the midterms. As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 6

Election Day is almost here. Have you made your POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge picks yet? Don't miss your chance to compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. The contest closes at 6 a.m. on Nov. 6. Sign up today. Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: The mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue was another reminder that gun violence kills 96 Americans and wounds hundreds more every day. We should be free to worship, attend school, go to nightclubs and live without the fear of gun violence. Let's elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **
IN THE TRENCHES
POLLS POLLS POLLS - In the Arizona Senate race, the new NBC News/Marist poll has Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema leading GOP Rep. Martha McSally, 47 percent to 44 percent, with the Green Party candidate pulling in 6 percent. The same poll has Republican Gov. Doug Ducey with a sizable lead over Democrat David Garcia, 54 percent to 40 percent, with the Green Party candidate at 5 percent. The poll surveyed 506 likely voters from Oct. 23-27.

- In Tennessee, another NBC News/Marist poll has GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn up, 51 percent to 46 percent. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Bill Lee leads Democrat Karl Dean, 57 percent to 40 percent. The poll surveyed 471 likely voters from Oct. 23-27.

- In NY-19, Democrat Antonio Delgado has the advantage over GOP Rep. John Faso in all three turnout models in the latest Monmouth University poll. In its standard midterm turnout model, he leads, 49 percent to 44 percent. In a turnout surge model, Delgado's lead expands, 51 percent to 43 percent. In a low turnout model, it shrinks slightly, 48 percent to 46 percent. The poll was in the field from Oct. 24-28 and surveyed 372 likely voters.

- Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and Sen. Bill Nelson, both Democrats, have small leads over their respective opponents, former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis and Gov. Rick Scott, in two new Florida gubernatorial and Senate polls. A poll from the University of North Florida has Gillum up 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent (1,048 likely voters, Oct. 23-26). The poll has Nelson up 1 point over Scott, 47 percent to 46 percent (1,045 likely voters, Oct. 23-26). In a Suffolk University/USA Today poll, Gillum leads DeSantis by 1 point, 45 percent to 44 percent, while Nelson is up 2 points over Scott, 45 percent to 43 percent (500 likely voters, Oct. 25-28).

- Two live caller polls from the Republican firm Cygnal gave the Republican candidate a narrow lead in the Indiana and Missouri Senate races. In Indiana, Mike Braun leads Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, 49 percent to 46 percent (505 likely voters, Oct. 26-27). In Missouri, Josh Hawley leads Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, 49 percent to 46 percent (401 likely voters, Oct. 26-27).

- The gubernatorial race in Connecticut is also close. In a poll from Quinnipiac University, Democrat Ned Lamont has a five point lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski, 47 percent to 43 percent. An independent candidate got 7 percent (1,201 likely voters, Oct. 22-28).

PUMPING THE BRAKES - Is the House all but locked up for the Democrats? BuzzFeed News' Molly Hensley-Clancy and Alexis Levinson makes the case for why it is no sure thing: "The battle for the majority now centers around a number of districts across the country where either party could win on election night," they write. "Those districts are a diverse bunch." Some questions they raise on how the majority will ultimately be decided: Will Trump's base still turn out without Trump on the ballot? Will suburban white women vote Democrat? Will young voters and voters of color show up? How much does strong Democratic candidates and fundraising matter?


RACE ABOUT RACE - The race between Gillum and DeSantis has been fraught with charges of dog-whistle politics and complicated arguments around race in America. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Whether measured by rhetoric, tactics or strategy, the campaign between Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum is shot-through with racial politics, putting the nation's rawest and most sensitive issue at the center of one of the hardest-fought elections of the year. The clash, judging by the candidates' bios, seemed inevitable."

- NRCC chair Steve Stivers offered a rare rebuke of one of his House Republican colleagues, condemning Iowa Rep. Steve King. "Congressman Steve King's recent comments, actions, and retweets are completely inappropriate," he wrote on Twitter. "We must stand up against white supremacy and hate in all forms, and I strongly condemn this behavior." The NRCC's Matt Gorman told Fox News that the committee "will not play in his race." More from our own Rachael Bade: "Multiple GOP sources told POLITICO they did not know of Stivers' intentions. Some were privately not happy about it. Others, however, praised Stivers on Twitter. GOP leaders, including Speaker Paul Ryan and House Majority Leader Kevin
McCarthy, did not respond on whether they agree with Stivers."

ABOUT THAT ONLINE TRANSPARENCY... - Facebook has opened up an archive of what it says is all the political ads that are being run on the site. But who is actually paying for some ads has been murky. And now, an investigation from Vice News' William Turton found that a bad actor might be able to lie in the ad disclosure: "VICE News applied to buy fake ads on behalf of all 100 sitting U.S. senators, including ads 'Paid for by' by Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer. Facebook's approvals were bipartisan: All 100 sailed through the system, indicating that just about anyone can buy an ad identified as 'Paid for by' by a major U.S. politician. What's more, all of these approvals were granted to be
shared from pages for fake political groups such as 'Cookies for Political Transparency' and 'Ninja Turtles PAC.' ...

"Facebook confirmed that the 100 'Paid for by' disclosures in the names of U.S. senators should never have been approved. But the company argues that its 'Paid for by' feature has brought a new level of transparency to political advertising, and cautioned it's just one piece of its efforts, along with a searchable Ad Archive."

SUDDENLY IN PLAY - Democrats are making a last minute push to take Great Plains governors' mansions. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "South Dakota hasn't elected a Democratic governor since the 1970s, and Kansas and Oklahoma have swung hard toward Republicans since they last elected Democratic governors in 2006. It's been more than a half-century since any of the Great Plains states have gone Democratic at the presidential level. But Democratic candidates in all three states have latched onto local issues and cast themselves as outsiders separate from their national party, and public polling has shown all three races in the single digits, with South Dakota and Kansas looking particularly
close."

- And speaking of Great Plains races: Our race ratings guru Steve Shepard moved the gubernatorial races in Kansas and South Dakota to toss-up, from lean Republican.

BIG SKY COUNTRY - Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is relying on the "beer test" (which candidate you'd rather have a drink with) to try to win re-election. But with the president furious with him, that might not be enough. POLITICO's Burgess Everett from Butte, Mont.: "Tester is upbeat about his prospects, saying he's been preparing for this moment ever since the 2016 election. 'We knew it was going to be a close race two years ago. ... That's just the nature of the beast,' Tester said. 'Do I think I'm going to win? Damn right I think I'm going to win.'"

BATTLEGROUND WATCH - Some interesting spending moves from Tuesday: In VA-10, House Majority PAC canceled the remainder of its buy (take this as a sign of confidence, not weakness). CLF dropped $1 million in MI-08 per NBC News, hitting Democrat Elissa Slotkin (the ad uses footage of Slotkin misspeaking and saying "it must be party before country" - a statement she almost immediately corrected at a rally). The Democratic PAC End Citizens United is also upping its buy in the district by $300,000 (you heard it here first), bringing it over $900,000. And in ND-AL, House Majority PAC is going up with a small buy of $67,500.

AD ROUNDUP - The Campaign Pro team watched Tuesday's new ad releases, totaling over 130 ads (none of us would complain if there were no new ads). Some to pull out: In IN-02, an ad from GOP Rep. Jackie Walorski said she worked across the aisle - with Donnelly (who is, of course, in a tough re-election battle of his own). A new NRCC ad (the group released a whole bunch) in GA-06 also had a very special cameo from Democrat Jon Ossoff, who lost the special election in the district in 2017.

ON THE AIRWAVES - FIRST IN SCORE - CLF, Majority Forward and SMP are going up with new ads. CLF released five more ads in battleground districts. The first hits Democrat Amy McGrath in KY-06. "Amy McGrath will vote with Pelosi for higher taxes and bigger government," the ad says. "McGrath is with Hillary and the Washington elites, not Kentucky." In OH-01 the group compares GOP Rep. Steve Chabot and Democrat Aftab Pureval. "A booming economy, or the radical policies of the liberal mob," the ad says. "That's our choice." A third ad in TX-23 hitting Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones strikes a similar theme, invoking taxes and Pelosi. "A vote for Liberal Gina Jones is a vote to make Nancy Pelosi
speaker - and raise your own taxes," the ad says.

In ME-02, a CLF ad contrasts GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin and Democrat Jared Golden on taxes and health care. "Jared Golden voted repeatedly to raise taxes," the ad says. "Two candidates. A clear choice for Maine taxpayers. Bruce Poliquin." A fifth ad targets Democrat Abby Finkenauer in IA-01. "If Abby Finkenauer is elected, our future could take a turn for the worse," the ad says. "Finkenauer's Iowa would be a nightmare. Don't let it become reality."

- Majority Forward released two ads targeting Republicans over health care. The first ad hits McSally in Arizona. "Her claim she is protecting people with pre-existing conditions is disgraceful," the ad says. "McSally's lies could cost us everything." The second ad targets Republican Matt Rosendale in Montana. "He gives the insurance companies everything they want," the ad says. "Matt Rosendale rubber-stamped every rate hike health insurance companies asked for."

- SMP released an ad in Tennessee, going after Blackburn. "Congresswoman Blackburn gave $4 million in earmarks to the company her son-in-law lobbied for and paid her family over $300,000," the ad says. "Blackburn's among the most corrupt in Washington."

WAY DOWN BALLOT - Democrats are being swamped in spending in important statehouse races, according to an analysis from Vox's Ella Nilsen: "Numbers from the liberal Super PAC Forward Majority obtained exclusively by Vox show that Republicans are out-fundraising Democrats more than five to one in key state legislative races including the Pennsylvania and Michigan Houses. Democratic candidates are also being outspent by nearly five to one in the Florida House and Wisconsin Senate; nearly three to one in the Texas House; and by two to one in the Arizona Senate. (These figures exclude outside spending.) ... [The DLCC] has committed to spend $35 million on state races, double what they spent two
years ago. ... Meanwhile, the [RSLC] is pouring up to $50 million" into races.

PLAY THAT FUNKY MUSIC - Ever wonder about how the songs in political ads are picked? Wonder no more: National Journal's Jeff Dufour dove into that world. Read the whole thing, you'll enjoy it.

CODA - STAT OF THE DAY: 12 states have already exceeded their total early vote numbers from 2014, and over 22 million people have already voted, according to data from Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: We stand with the families and survivors of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting as they grieve, but we must also honor them with action. No more shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. As the Tree of Life congregation's leader, Rabbi Jeffrey Myers, wrote, "we deserve better."

That's why Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who will support common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that Americans are fed up - and voting on gun safety. NotOneMore.com **

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