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11/05/2018 07:59 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

PATH TO THE MAJORITY -- House Republicans would need to win nearly all of the 22 races POLITICO rates as toss-ups to keep their majority, according to a new analysis. POLITICO's final race ratings show 216 seats either solidly, likely or leaning Democratic. "That's a significantly stronger position than Republicans, who have 197 seats leaning or solidly in their camp, but still just shy of the 218 needed to control the House next year," Steven Shepard reports. "Republicans would need to win at least 21 of the 22 toss-ups -- races that are currently considered too close to call -- to get to 218 seats."

Democrats needs to pick up 23 seats to win the majority. The ratings indicate that Democrats are likely to pick up between 25 and 40 seats. "A Democratic-controlled House ... would represent a rebuke to Trump, even with a booming economy, and grind much of his legislative agenda to a halt until the 2020 election," he adds. "But the president will likely have something about which to crow on Tuesday night: His party is likely to keep control of the Senate and could expand its narrow majority, even as it loses significant ground in the House." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad699b270fc8a5d9e1a1f86698b4b50da3e6876d2163d928198579c947b8cae0109cd39708d7ceb6c068

Related: "Trump says he's focused on Senate," by The Associated Press' Zeke Miller and Jill Colvin: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad699a6888565b97baf8d56b32153b720846abed0ea43769acc1a2281feaa2dae528db1d1d96911a0c21

HOUSE GOP IN PANIC MODE -- House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) implored the president in a phone call Sunday to talk about the economy in the final hours of the campaign cycle. Trump -- who will hold his final midterm campaign rallies today in Cleveland; Fort Wayne, Indiana; and Cape Girardeau, Missouri -- bragged that his rhetoric on immigration has fired up the base. "Republicans focused on the chamber are profoundly worried that Trump's obsession with all things immigration will exacerbate their losses," Rachael, Carla Marinucci and Elana report. "Many of these same Republicans welcomed Trump's initial talk about the migrant caravan and border security two weeks ago, hoping it would gin up
the GOP base in some at-risk, Republican-held districts."

"But they now fear Trump went overboard -- and that it could cost them dearly in key suburban districts, from Illinois to Texas," they write. Privately, some House Republicans say the president abandoned them to focus on the Senate. While Trump's approach likely helps Senate Republicans expand their majority in rural, red states, it hurts House Republicans' efforts to save their majority in the suburbs. "Trump has hijacked the election," one senior House Republican aide said. "This is not what we expected the final weeks of the election to focus on." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad695659fafc359b7c271e4a9e5a446463bc3f92b220337b252db1f8150a02dacef6342b6f34d58df94a

Related read: "'Full Trumpism': The president's apocalyptic attacks reach a new level of falsity," from The Washington Post's Philip Rucker: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad6919666968a4109c5fc0dce0be5abd9b38e05f345d1e781a4a525b9eec7e280711628abf7e1511f4ea

PELOSI PROFILE -- What is it like to be House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)? "Republicans are running ads against you again, morphing your face into a monster mask of a big-spending, amnesty-loving San Francisco liberal," The New York Times' Kate Zernike writes. "Democratic candidates are running from your leadership, declaring it time for a new generation in Washington even as they welcome endorsements from Joe Biden, who's been around nearly two decades longer." You're the most powerful woman in American politics yet are depicted in one ad by a woman walking in a cheap version of stilettos. "Has anyone ever attempted to tar a candidate with Chuck Schumer's reading glasses or
Mitch McConnell's wingtips?" Zernike asks.

Women, Pelosi says, can't run from fights. "Know your power, know your why, know your what, know your how, connect with your voters and people who are supportive, those you wish to convince," Pelosi tells women. "But don't let them think you are running away." Pelosi is still fighting to become speaker again, despite being targeted by Republicans and distanced from some Democrats. She not only knows her power but declares it, telling audiences she's a "dazzling fundraiser" and "master legislator." She understands why some Democrats running in Republican districts oppose her but doesn't dwell on those who are unlikely to win. "My time is big money," she says. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad6931a15b2563bcc78b6dc67bc6c7e32319798cbc3de6f30d13db6f73826bbd3dabbd57ea3808a35381

GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Nov. 5.

FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED: McClatchy's report on a potential fight over who should be the top black Democrat in the next Congress was the winner.

Today is the last day to make your POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge picks. Don't miss your chance to compete against the nation's top political minds by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. The contest closes at 6 a.m. on Nov. 6. Sign up today.

POLITICO Pro announces dedicated California coverage: On Nov. 7, there will be a new authority on California politics and policy. Just in time to help policy professionals and business leaders in the Golden State navigate the twists and turns of a new administration, POLITICO California Pro is the only tool that will arm you with a team of state-level experts. Learn more.

WOMEN EYE SENATE LEADERSHIP POST -- Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) leadership team could soon include a woman for the first time since 2010. Sens. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) are running for the No. 5 post, Senate GOP Conference vice chair. "The race is expected to be close, putting the mostly male conference in an awkward position of choosing between two up-and-coming female members," Burgess reports. "Some Republican senators are trying to pick sides delicately, while others will simply vote on the secret ballot and never disclose which senator they favored." Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), however, will back Fischer because she asked him to first.

The race has been ongoing since this summer but will ramp up after Tuesday's elections. Senators say neither candidate has a clear edge, but both will try to lock up the 26 or so votes they need in the Nov. 14 leadership elections. "Ernst is expected to face a tough reelection campaign in 2020, while Fischer is expected to win reelection handily on Tuesday," Burgess notes. Ernst also "breaks with President Donald Trump's rhetoric on occasion. Fischer is closer with more senior senators, and her messaging is more consistently in line with Trump's and GOP leaders." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad6967edf991a9bbadd553330f04111a402439153ecfb00d3b08d43e2f68c13f1ef31f3ac8a6167cabd6

BLOOMBERG'S $5M BOOST -- Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has launched a $5 million national ad campaign for Democrats -- and himself. The two-minute spot aired last night during CBS' "60 Minutes" and will air tonight during evening news programs on broadcast networks and on CNN and MSNBC. "While formally a pitch for Democrats -- to whom Bloomberg has given more than $110 million this election cycle -- the ad is also revealing of the kind of presentation he could bring to the 2020 campaign trail," The Washington Post's Robert Costa writes. "The country is deeply divided," Bloomberg said in a statement. "The president and Republicans are fueling that division, and that holds us back
as a nation. I'm unwilling to sit by and accept it." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad69ed45f491817414a5669766f58c83ae78172b8d6bedd986e5e1b07a1524ea6f02148b19f00b362229

SINEMA CLOSES IN ON AZ SENATE SEAT -- Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) quipped at a campaign event that "they're coming for us" after a poster behind her noisily fell to the ground as she was speaking. "Sinema's opponent, GOP Rep. Martha McSally, has tarred her as a liberal in centrist's clothing, running ads contrasting the Republican's Air Force service with the Democrat's past as an antiwar activist clad in a pink tutu," Elana writes. "But the hits, like Sinema's poster, don't seem to be sticking." Polls show Sinema either tied with McSally or narrowly leading in a red state that has elected famously independent-minded Republicans such as Jeff Flake and the late John McCain.

"Arizona's strong early vote totals have Sinema backers hopeful that she will be the first Democrat elected statewide since former Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-Ariz.) was reelected to a second term in 2006," Elana adds. "McSally betrayed a hint of frustration with what she called a disingenuous makeover by her opponent." McSally said Sinema has been on TV since April, pouring tens of millions of dollars in ads portraying herself as right of center without mentioning she's a Democrat. "To people who are out there just living their lives ... you can fool a lot of people with tens of millions of dollars pretending you're something that you're not," McSally said. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad692318dc3ac40858c124d061d474c9b338d249b4d319ed53dd45d3120ce7f06014b4454dd5d9b2442c

Related: "McSally flames 'activist' Sinema at Arizona GOP cookout," per Elana: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad692ece6f5c0af0bc311f1155f89ec7ea056f6e7fcf51efa8815510b48557a4f7ae5494389e0f91288b and "'Tale of the tape': Senate battlegrounds will show if Democrats have found the way to win in Trump states," via The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad69eb6c0f1dc94da3242f533d7e8676356b80b97b496333e54d3bcc148e3f44c3735af084ab7458953b

DID BETO BLOW IT? -- Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) highlighted bipartisanship in a unique way, hitting the road with Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) for a 24-hour, 1,600-mile trip from San Antonio, Texas, to Washington, D.C., in March 2017. Two weeks later, he launched his Senate campaign, which rejected corporate money, avoided negative attacks and didn't employ any pollsters or consultants. "By offering a cause rather than a candidacy, O'Rourke convinced America that a Texas Democrat could win statewide for the first time since 1994," Tim Alberta writes.

"A staggering $70 million flooded into his campaign," he continues. "Celebrities came calling on a first-name basis. LeBron James made the black-and-white 'Beto' signage famous. National reporters took turns deifying the skateboarding, punk-rocking congressman. And all the while, O'Rourke was flatlining." O'Rourke hasn't broken 47 percent in any public or private poll this cycle. Many Texas Republicans don't like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Some even want Cruz to lose. "And all of them are baffled by the disconnect between the superior branding of O'Rourke's candidacy and what they see as the tactical malpractice of his campaign," Alberta adds. O'Rourke did little to win over the Republicans
and independents who are open to opposing Cruz. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad69438d64a43a2ef3aac194a0194330ae3f26c7c5a82f2c416fb012908b0d57b7155ca1def23ac6f0b4

THE FATE OF OBAMACARE -- If Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate, they will have to determine whether to mount another effort to repeal Obamacare. "The GOP believes it can't just walk away from an eight-year pledge to repeal the law, a promise the party's base still wants Republicans to keep despite Obamacare's relative new popularity," Adam Cancryn writes. "If an election-night shocker keeps Republicans in power -- rebuking the conventional wisdom that voters will punish them for their Obamacare attacks -- they might be emboldened to mount another repeal push without risking reprisals at the polls next time around."

Republicans, however, have no viable replacement plan. And even with a House majority, they wouldn't have the numbers. "Republicans' advantage in the chamber would shrink to just two or three votes under even the rosiest midterm projections, leaving virtually no room for error in rounding up votes for a repeal package guaranteed to be divisive," he adds. "A Republican-controlled Congress, with an eye toward reelecting President Donald Trump in 2020, could pursue party-unifying issues instead, like another round of tax cuts Trump dangled before the midterms. But take up Obamacare repeal again and the GOP would invite another brutal, months-long health care war facing long odds and littered
with stumbling blocks." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=93021c57e798ad69e15c8051aa927ba012d9a4cac194a1d2f91d21e208b45d31ecae56f60a8b609cc7f65718b20e22f3

TRANSITIONS -- Mathew Weidinger will be a resident fellow in the economic policy department at the American Enterprise Institute. He most recently was deputy staff director for the House Ways and Means Committee.

Aniela Butler is now a professional staff member on the Senate Budget Committee, focusing on energy and natural resources. She was previously a legislative assistant for Sen. Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Patrick Haggerty was first to correctly guess that the tomb in the U.S. Capitol was built for George Washington, but no one is actually buried in the Capitol complex.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- In what year was the last presidential election to fall on Nov. 5, and who were the Republican and Democratic nominees? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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