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Presented by BP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington Nov 05, 2018 View in browser
By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman

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DRIVING THE DAY
WE'RE HERE. Election Day is tomorrow. The general consensus among Republicans is that they will lose the House, and end up in at least a five-seat minority -- that would correspond to a 28-seat loss. Senior Republicans tell us that even in a worst-case scenario, they do not expect to lose 40 seats. A prescient prediction or famous last words? Only time will tell. We spoke to several senior Republican lawmakers yesterday, and only one made the case that the GOP will keep the House.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, House Democrats and Republicans will begin launching leadership races. Speed is important in these races, and the smart candidates will have already locked down a chunk of support. By the end of the week, it should become clear who has momentum.

HOUSE REPUBLICANS will have their leadership elections next Thursday, Nov. 15. If Dems take back the House, NANCY PELOSI will begin wrangling the 218 votes she'll need to become speaker -- and those under her will begin working to secure half of the House Democratic Caucus.

IF REPUBLICANS expand their majority in the Senate, and lose the House, watch for PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP to boast about saving the Senate. But losing the House will ensure Trump is immediately ensnared in investigations.

Good Monday morning. One last time: Can anyone point us to any money that Steve Bannon spent on this election? He told various new outlets that he was going to spend many millions of dollars on digital ads supporting House Republicans. We cannot find evidence he spent one dollar.

NANCY PELOSI PROFILE ... NYT'S KATE ZERNIKE in Cambridge, Mass.: "With more women than ever running for the House - most of them Democrats - Ms. Pelosi does not just know her power, to use the slogan she repeats to female candidates, she is declaring it.

"She tells audiences she is a 'dazzling fund-raiser' (she has brought in half of every dollar raised by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) and a 'master legislator' (the one who shepherded and protected the health care legislation that so many Democrats are running on)." NYT

LEADERSHIP WRANGLING ... WYOMING REP. LIZ CHENEY is running for House Republican Conference chair no matter what happens this week, a source working on her leadership race tells us. In other words: if Washington Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the current occupant of that position, opts to run again, Cheney will run against her.

"While focused on campaigning to keep the Republican majority and helping her fellow Republicans, Liz Cheney is running for House GOP Conference chair regardless of Tuesday night's outcome," a source told us.

SHOT ... RACHAEL BADE, CARLA MARINUCCI and ELANA SCHOR: "'Trump has hijacked the election': House Republicans in panic mode": "House Speaker Paul Ryan got President Donald Trump on the phone Sunday for one final plea on behalf of anxious Republicans: Please, please talk up the booming economy in the final hours before Election Day.

"But Trump, unsurprisingly, had another issue on his mind. He boasted to Ryan that his focus on immigration has fired up the base, according to a source familiar with the call.

"Two days out from an expected Democratic takeover of the House, Republicans focused on the chamber are profoundly worried that Trump's obsession with all things immigration will exacerbate their losses.

"Many of these same Republicans welcomed Trump's initial talk about the migrant caravan and border security two weeks ago, hoping it would gin up the GOP base in some at-risk, Republican-held districts." POLITICO

CHASER ... "'Full Trumpism': The president's apocalyptic attacks reach a new level of falsity," by WaPo's Phil Rucker in Chattanooga, Tenn.: "[A]t one mega-rally after another in the run-up to Tuesday's midterm elections, Trump has taken his no-boundaries political ethos to a new level - demagoguing the Democrats in a whirl of distortion and using the power of the federal government to amplify his fantastical arguments.

"In Columbia, Mo., the president suggested that Democrats 'run around like antifa' demonstrators in black uniforms and black helmets, but underneath, they have 'this weak little face' and 'go back home into mommy's basement.'

"In Huntington, W.Va., Trump called predatory immigrants 'the worst scum in the world' but alleged that Democrats welcome them by saying, 'Fly right in, folks. Come on in. We don't care who the hell you are, come on in!' And in Macon, Ga., he charged that if Democrat Stacey Abrams is elected governor, she would take away the Second Amendment right to bear arms - though as a state official, she would not have the power to change the Constitution." WaPo

-- NYT'S MAGGIE HABERMAN: "A Familiar Force Nurtures Trump's Instincts on Immigration: Stephen Miller"

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TWITTER EXCHANGE OF THE DAY -- @PhilipRucker: "It's been said a million times, but here's a million and one - Trump's rallies are unlike anything else in politics. Currently, Rihanna's 'Don't Stop the Music' is blaring in Chattanooga as aides toss free Trump T-shirts into the crowd, like a ball game. Everyone's loving it."

-- @rihanna replies: "Not for much longer...me nor my people would ever be at or around one of those tragic rallies, so thanks for the heads up philip!"

WHERE THINGS STAND ... NEW POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL -- STEVE SHEPARD: "Poll: Generic ballot narrows on eve of midterms": "The final POLITICO/Morning Consult poll prior to the midterm elections shows Republicans cutting into Democrats' lead on the generic congressional ballot. According to the poll, 43 percent of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district - only slightly more than the 40 percent who would vote for the Republican candidate. Eighteen percent of registered voters are undecided.

"Among those who say they are very likely to vote or have already voted, Democrats lead by 4 percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent. That's a slightly smaller edge for Democrats than other public polls conducted in the immediate run-up to the election, but it fits an overall trend of modest tightening on the general ballot." POLITICO

-- "POLITICO Race Ratings: GOP braces for House loss," by Steve Shepard.

NYT/SIENA UPDATE ... The NYT and Siena College have been running an interesting experiment -- they've been polling in real time through phone calls. Here are a few results that caught our attention: NYT/SIENA has Kentucky's 6th tied at 44. That's the marquee race between GOP Rep. Andy Barr and Amy McGrath. ... Veteran TEXAS REP. PETE SESSIONS (R) is down 46-42 to Colin Allred in the Dallas area.

ELANA SCHOR: "Sinema closes in on Arizona's hotly contested Senate seat"

DOWN IN GEORGIA ... DANIEL STRAUSS in Atlanta: "Abrams, Kemp prepare for overtime in Georgia governor's race": "As voters and campaigns around the country get ready for Tuesday's climactic midterm elections, the candidates for governor of Georgia are already preparing for four weeks of overtime. ... Under Georgia law, if no general election candidate secures a majority, the top two finishers advance to a runoff, which would take place on December 4 for this year's governor's race.

"There has never been a general election runoff for governor in Georgia. But while both Abrams and Kemp have stubbornly maintained that they are focused on winning outright on Tuesday, behind the scenes, their campaigns are already laying groundwork for an extra 28 days on the trail - assembling legal teams for potential legal fights over Tuesday's vote and stockpiling money to jumpstart a runoff campaign." POLITICO

-- "Georgia's Kemp lobs evidence-free hacking allegation at Democrats on eve of vote," by Tim Starks: "Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp announced Sunday that he opened an investigation into the state Democratic party, accusing it without evidence of attempting to hack the state's voter registration system." POLITICO

-- "Racist 'magical Negro' robo-call from 'Oprah' targets Stacey Abrams in Georgia governor's race," by WaPo's Cleve R. Wootson Jr.

MIAMI HERALD: "There's a surge in early voting. And Florida Democrats are closing in on the GOP," by Steve Bousquet: "Early voting surged to its highest levels yet in Florida's biggest counties on Saturday, giving Democrats new hope for a 'blue wave' that could catapult Andrew Gillum to the governor's mansion and keep Bill Nelson in the U.S. Senate. Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough and Orange, the five biggest 'blue' counties, all reported their highest one-day early voting totals of the 2018 campaign.

"As a result, on a day when President Donald Trump rallied thousands of Republicans in Pensacola, the GOP's ballot advantage over the Democrats shrank to six-tenths of 1 percentage point (0.6), with GOP ballots at 40.8 percent of the statewide total and Democrats at 40.2 percent." Herald


TRUMP'S MONDAY -- The president will leave the White House at 12:40 p.m. He is headed to Cleveland, where Trump will hold a political rally at the I-X Center at 2:45 p.m. He will depart at 4:15 p.m. for Fort Wayne, Ind. Trump will hold a political rally at 6:05 p.m. at the Allen County War Memorial Coliseum. Trump will fly to Cape Girardeau, Mo., at 7:55 p.m. He will headline a political rally at 9 p.m. C.T. at the Show Me Center before returning to Washington.

-- VARIETY'S TED JOHNSON: "Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity to Appear With Trump at Midterm Eve Rally": "Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity will join President Trump for his final midterm rally on a Monday night in Cape Girardeau, Mo." Variety

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PLAYBOOK READS


PHOTO DU JOUR: Supporters cheer as President Donald Trump waves during a campaign rally for Tennessee Republican candidates in Chattanooga, Tenn., on Sunday. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

TIM ALBERTA, "Did Beto Blow It?: Texas Republicans believe Ted Cruz was beatable - if only his opponent paid attention to them": "Somewhere along the line, the rock-concert crowds and record-setting fundraising and JFK comparisons obscured a basic contradiction between Beto O'Rourke the national heartthrob and Beto O'Rourke the Texas heretic.

"While the coastal media's narrative emphasized his appeals to common ground, framing him as an Obamaesque post-partisan figure, the candidate himself tacked unapologetically leftward. He endorsed Bernie Sanders' 'Medicare for all' plan.

"He called repeatedly for President Donald Trump's impeachment-a position rejected by Nancy Pelosi, and nearly every other prominent Democrat in America, as futile and counterproductive. He flirted with the idea of abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He took these positions, and others, with a brash fearlessness that reinforced his superstardom in the eyes of the Democratic base nationwide. But it likely stunted his growth among a more important demographic: Texans." POLITICO Magazine

LATEST ON KHASHOGGI -- "Khashoggi sons issue emotional appeal for the return of their father's body," by CNN's Nic Robertson: "Salah and Abdullah Khashoggi, who called their father 'courageous, generous and very brave,' said they have endured weeks of anguish and uncertainty following his disappearance and death. 'I really hope that whatever happened wasn't painful for him, or it was quick. Or he had a peaceful death,'

"Abdullah Khashoggi, 33, told CNN during a sit-down interview in Washington with his brother, Salah, 35. ... Without their father's body, the brothers say their family is unable to grieve or find closure. 'All what we want right now is to bury him in Al-Baqi (cemetery) in Medina (Saudi Arabia) with the rest of his family,' Salah said. 'I talked about that with the Saudi authorities and I just hope that it happens soon.'" CNN

-- WAPO'S KAREEM FAHIM and LOVEDAY MORRIS in Istanbul: "Saudi campaign to abduct and silence rivals abroad goes back decades": "Faisal al Jarba fled his native Saudi Arabia late last year as the danger drew near - after his patron, a powerful Saudi prince, was arrested and after a friend died in suspicious circumstances while in government custody. Jarba, a leading sheikh in a large tribe, traveled to the Jordanian capital, Amman, joining relatives there. But that was not nearly far enough. Jordanian security officers surrounded his house one evening in early June and took him away for questioning, assuring his family he would be back soon.

"Within days, however, he was driven to the border with Saudi Arabia and handed over to the Saudi authorities, according to two people familiar with the details of Jarba's forced repatriation, which has not previously been reported. There have been no charges filed against Jarba, 45, and in the five months since he was captured, his family has received no proof that he is still alive, the people said." WaPo


FOR THE RECORD ... NYT, Nov. 4, "Tracing a Meme From the Internet's Fringe to a Republican Slogan," by Keith Collins and Kevin Roose: "This feedback loop is how #JobsNotMobs came to be."

-- POLITICO's Ben Schreckinger, Oct. 31: "How an internet meme became a Trump campaign slogan: The creator of 'Dilbert,' a Reddit user and Newt Gingrich all helped to make a random tweet part of Trump's midterm stump speech": "The jobs-versus-mobs line also provides insight into the social media feedback loop between Trump and his supporters."

MEDIAWATCH -- "George Soros rep says he wants to go on Fox News. But they won't book him," by CNN's Jackie Wattles: "Fox News talks about billionaire philanthropist George Soros a lot. He is a favorite bogeyman of the right, so Fox's conservative talk shows blame him for all sorts of ills, sometimes even pushing into conspiracy theory territory.

"But the head of Soros's philanthropic group said the conservative network won't let him on air to rebut the wild accusations. Patrick Gaspard, president of Soros's Open Society Foundations, told CNN's Brian Stelter on 'Reliable Sources' Sunday that Fox News producers 'refuse to have us on.' Fox News did not respond to CNN Business' request for comment about Gaspard's claim." CNN
PLAYBOOKERS
TRANSITION -- Former Ambassador to Vietnam Ted Osius has joined Albright Stonebridge Group as a senior adviser.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE -- Ninio Fetalvo will be the deputy director of communications at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. He most recently has served as assistant White House press secretary.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Moira Whelan, founding partner at BlueDot Strategies. How she's celebrating: "This is a big week for us. My brave kids are overcoming their fears and indulging me with a spin on the National Harbor Ferris Wheel. The next day is my daughter's birthday (Happy 4th Neve!) and at the end of the week my husband Jason McNamara and I celebrate our 10th anniversary. That's a whole lot of cake." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: John Harwood ... NBC News D.C. bureau chief Ken Strickland ... Valerie Biden Owens, vice chair of the Biden Institute at the University of Delaware ... POLITICO's Katy O'Donnell and Nolan McCaskill ... Jason Calabretta, associate producer at "NBC Nightly News" ... Autumn VandeHei ... USAID's Casey Smith ... HFA alum Heather Stone ... Steve Pfister ... Annie Kelly Kuhle, SVP at FP1 Strategies (hat tip: Blake Waggoner) ... Stephen Rubright ... WaPo senior correspondent Kevin Sullivan ... New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu is 44 (h/t Ed Cash) ... Tom Guthrie ... Lori Sanders ... Richard Parker ... Trudy Vincent ... Keith Castaldo, general counsel to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) ...
Camille von Kaenel ... Jeremy Ravinsky ... Curtis Skinner ... Austin Butler ... Matt Nicholson, government relations senior manager at Accenture ... Katie Swander Gilmore ... Betsy Wiley ...

... Benjamin Wittes, senior fellow at Brookings and editor-in-chief of Lawfare blog ... Jane Timken, chair of the Ohio Republican Party (h/ts Max Docksey and Alana Wilson) ... Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.) is 76 ... Zack Marshall ... Kristin Bodenstedt ... John Procter, EVP at Signal Group, is 39 ... Ben Quayle is 42 ... former Rep. Bob Barr (R-Ga.) is 7-0 ... Corey Jones ... Steve Caldeira ... Jenny Mueller, research director at the Republican State Leadership Committee (h/t Jeff Choudhry) ... Chris Mewett ... Susan Arbetter ... Ryan Mewett ... Malik Haughton ... Ted Kulongoski ... Joseph Perman ... Kate Throneburg ... Meryl Holt Silverman of the NYC Law Department ... Jessica Harris ...
Ben Polk ... Kim Griffin ... Sheri Sweitzer ... Jackie Boynton ... Rick Leach ... Karen Mulhauser ... Janice Griffin ... Craig Kirby (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

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