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10/30/2018 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
THE TOPLINES
Gun control is no longer the losing message for swing district Democrats that it used to be. Gun control groups like Giffords PAC are playing in are suburban battlegrounds, and Democrats in swing districts now pledge to stand up to the NRA.

The messaging does not skirt guns; instead, ads in these suburban districts call for more gun control and challenge the NRA. "Today, our children huddle in supply closets, hoping the next school shooter doesn't take aim at them," a Giffords ad in TX-07 says. "Why? Because Washington politicians like [GOP Rep.] John Culberson take tens of thousands from the NRA and then vote against our safety."

On the airwaves, pro-gun control groups are vastly outspending the NRA in the battle for the House. Giffords PAC has spent just under $5 million in airtime in four districts (CO-06, TX-07, MN-02, VA-10) in the general election through the end of this week, according to data provided to Score by Advertising Analytics. Meanwhile, the NRA Political Victory Fund has dropped just over $480,000 in four districts (TX-07, NC-13, MN-08 and VA-05) in the same timeframe, per Advertising Analytics. Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund, a pro-gun control group backed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has also dropped $1.4 million in general election airwave spending in GA-06, backing Lucy
McBath, a gun control activist who has worked with the group, according to Advertising Analytics.

This is a change of tune from past elections, where the battlegrounds were often focused in places where Democrats did not want to talk about, or side with, gun control. This year, a number of suburban Democrats are picking up this messaging in their ads. "I'll stand up to the NRA to protect our community," Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running in FL-26, says in an emotional ad detailing her father's death. The NRA's ratings have also been used as a scarlet letter of sorts for Republicans, like Democrat Mike Levin's ad in CA-49. Republican "Diane Harkey has an A rating from the NRA. She stands with the gun lobby, not us," the ad says, before featuring former Rep. Gabby Giffords
and her husband Mark Kelly endorsing him.

Of course, it's not a one-size-fits-all message. Health care still remains far and away the most common theme in ads this cycle. And in some battleground districts, the old rules on gun control still apply: Democrat Kathleen "Williams is liberal on guns," one one ad from GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte in MT-AL says. "So extreme, Williams received an F rating from the NRA." Meanwhile, West Virginia Democrat Richard Ojeda put out an ad earlier in the cycle pledging to "protect your Second Amendment rights," and GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney in NY-22 hosted NRA President Oliver North to tout the group's endorsement on Monday.

Good Tuesday morning. ONE! WEEK! OUT! A big kudos to Alaska, which really stepped up its game with its "I Voted" stickers. As always, email me at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 7

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: The mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue was another reminder that gun violence kills 96 Americans and wounds hundreds more every day. We should be free to worship, attend school, go to nightclubs and live without the fear of gun violence. Let's elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **

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IN THE TRENCHES
MOMENTUM SWING - With a week to go, Democrats are again feeling good about their chances in the House. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider (and click through for more from Elena on two N.C. races): "The Republican Party base has been electrified by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings and a campaign blitz from President Donald Trump. But the burst of enthusiasm has not reversed the trajectory of the midterms for the House GOP, which remains on the verge of losing its majority next week.

"Some Republicans deep in Trump country have regained ground. But the handful of bright spots have been outweighed by a tidal wave of Democratic spending and voter support in the closing weeks of the midterm election, according to public and private polling, interviews with strategists from both parties and a POLITICO analysis of TV spending figures. In recent days, House Republicans have rushed to fortify a surprise collection of GOP-held districts in a half-dozen states that were never expected to be competitive."


POLLS POLLS POLLS - Another poll out of Texas has Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke. In a new Quinnipiac University poll, Cruz leads 51 percent to 46 percent. The poll was in the field from Oct. 22-28 and surveyed 1,078 likely voters.

- In Rhode Island, Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo has opened a sizable lead over Republican Allan Fung. The poll from WPRI/Roger Williams University has her at 45 percent, compared to Fung's 34 percent and independent Joe Trillo's 9 percent. The poll surveyed 416 likely voters from Oct. 20-24.

- The race between GOP Rep. Dave Brat and Democrat Abigail Spanberger in VA-07 is close. A poll from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University has Spanberger up 1 point, 46 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Joseph Walton at 4 percent. A more restrictive model of likely voters - those who said they were definitely going to vote and are enthusiastic about the election - has Spanberger up 48 percent to Brat's 45 percent and Walton's 3 percent. The first survey included 871 voters, while the second counted 790 voters, with both conducted from Oct. 18-27.

- Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is leading Republican John James in a new Detroit News/WDIV poll. She leads 53 percent to 36 percent. In the state's gubernatorial race, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer leads 50 percent to 38 percent. The poll surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters from Oct. 25-27.

2016 REDUX? - Democrats fret that they could repeat a mistake that helped sink them in 2016: not energizing black voters. POLITICO's Alex Thompson and James Arkin: "Can the party energize and turn out black voters in 2018 in ways they so spectacularly failed to do in 2016? National black political activists said the Democratic Party's failure to prepare for President Barack Obama's departure from the White House - and the drop-off in minority voting that was likely to follow - goes back years. ...

"In Missouri, conversations with nearly a dozen elected officials, activists and voters reveal a mixture of cautious optimism and concern about whether [Democratic Sen. Claire] McCaskill has done enough to secure high turnout here in Kansas City and in St. Louis, which she will need to win a state President Trump carried by nearly 20 percentage points. African American turnout in Missouri - and Democrats' margin with black voters - dropped slightly from 2012 to 2016. ... 'I haven't taken their votes for granted. We've done a massive effort in St. Louis and Kansas City and I feel like I've got a really good working relationship with a whole lot of very important African-American leaders,'
McCaskill said."

THE CLOSING MESSAGE - President Donald Trump's reelection campaign is going up with a new ad one week out from the election - that doesn't mention the president. The ad promotes the strong economic growth the country has seen, while flashing back to the recovery from the great depression. "Things are starting to change," the ad's narrator says. "This could all go away, if we don't remember what we came from." The ad ends with the tagline "Things are getting better. We can't go back" while urging people to "vote Republican." The Washington Post's John Wagner reports that the ad is backed by a $6 million buy.

- How are the two parties trying to frame the election? Not as a referendum on Trump. The AP's Steve Peoples and Thomas Beaumont: "In an interview, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel suggested the midterm elections are not a referendum on Trump. 'I don't see it,' she said. 'The candidates that we have that are doing better are the candidates that are focused on district specific issues and not nationalizing the race.' ... Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez downplays Trump's impact on the midterms as well. 'Health care is on the ballot,' he said in an interview. 'They want to take it away, we want to preserve it.'"

MEGA SPENDING - Spending on the midterm election could top $5.2 billion, according to a projection from the Center for Responsive Politics. $4.7 billion has already been spent, easily cruising past the previous midterm spending record of over $3.8 billion in 2014.

ON THE AIRWAVES - FIRST IN SCORE - A whole slew of new ads from House Majority PAC, Senate Majority PAC, VoteVets and the Congressional Leadership Fund:

- HMP is going up with seven new ads in battleground districts. In FL-27, an ad (and a Spanish-language version) tying Republican Maria Elvira Salazar to Trump, citing her support of the GOP tax plan. In IA-03, an ad criticizes GOP Rep. David Young in a (kind of gross) sausage making-themed ad, also criticizing his vote for the GOP tax plan. The ad in IL-13 also hits GOP Rep. Rodney Davis over the GOP tax plan. The ad in NH-01 hits Republican Eddie Edwards over the GOP health care plan, citing pre-existing conditions.

In NY-22, GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney is under fire for her health care vote in a new ad, while also criticizing her over Medicare funding. In WA-03, the ad (which is put in in conjunction with Women Vote!) hits GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, tying her health care votes to money she has received from the industry. The last ad in WA-08 targets Republican Dino Rossi over health care and prescription drug prices.

- SMP released two new ads. The first, in Indiana, hits Republican Mike Braun over health care. "Mike Braun and his blue shirt, lying again about his company's health care," the ad says. "Braun charges his workers $10,000 in out of pocket health care deductibles." The second ad lands in North Dakota, hitting GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer over the president's trade war. "This is what happens when Kevin Cramer puts party leaders about North Dakota," the ad says. 'It is is devastating to North Dakota farmers and will have a lasting impact," citing an editorial in the Bismarck Tribune.

- VoteVets and the National Education Association are going up with an ad in WV-03. The ad has a teacher looking at a yearbook of students who died from the opioid crisis, while a narrator criticizes Republican Carol Miller. "Carol Miller is looking out for herself, not West Virginia," the ad says. It is backed by a $449,000 buy.

- CLF is going up with two new ads on taxes. The first ad in NE-02 contrasts GOP Rep. Don Bacon and Democrat Kara Eastman. "Don Bacon cut middle-class taxes," the ad says. "Eastman would vote with [Nancy] Pelosi to eliminate the middle class tax-cut." The second ad in WA-08 goes after Democrat Kim Schrier. "Higher income, gas and energy taxes and a new state income tax," the ad says. "Schrier is taxing."

WHAT? - Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), who's in a tight reelection battle with GOP Gov. Rick Scott, compared the political atmosphere in the U.S. to Rwanda right before the country's genocide. "When a place gets so tribal that the two tribes won't have anything to do with each other ... that jealousy turns into hate," Nelson said at a weekend event, CNN's Ryan Nobles reported. "And we saw what happened to the Hutus and the Tutsis in Rwanda, it turned into a genocide. A million-people hacked to death within a few months. And we have got to watch what's happening here."

- Also down in Florida: New documents claim that Democrat Andrew Gillum, the Tallahassee mayor, paid for a fundraising trip with a city account. POLITICO Florida's Arek Sarkissian: "Gillum was visiting potential campaign donors to talk about his run for governor when he used an official Tallahassee mayor's office expense account to pay for a private flight that ferried him there, according to documents released Monday. Gillum paid for the Feb. 12, 2016, round-trip flight from Tallahassee to St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport with an official mayor's office expense account, the Tallahassee Democrat reported last year."

THE BATTLEGROUND - The NRCC is going up with a small buy in SC-01, where Republican Katie Arrington is facing Democrat Joe Cunningham. Elena reported the buy is $87,000.

AD ROUNDUP - I rounded up the new ads published over the weekend and on Monday, totaling 70 ads. A closing message for many Republican Senate hopefuls? The president supports me, and he doesn't like the person I'm running against. The recent ads all feature footage from a presidential rally, gold for Republican ad makers.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "On Twitter there is a choice between having the courage to @ the person you are trash talking, or not," Gillum tweeted after the president insulted him on the social media platform without mentioning his name or account.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: We stand with the families and survivors of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting as they grieve, but we must also honor them with action. No more shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. As the Tree of Life congregation's leader, Rabbi Jeffrey Myers, wrote, "we deserve better."

That's why Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who will support common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that Americans are fed up - and voting on gun safety. NotOneMore.com **

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