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Why Democrats are set to retake state legislatures in 2016 (and it’s not
just Trump) - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/22/why-democrats-could-regain-state-legislatures-in-2016-and-its-not-just-trump/?wprss=rss_the-fix&tid=sm_tw_pp

Why Democrats are set to retake state legislatures in 2016 (and it’s not
just Trump)

Conventional wisdom says Donald Trump is going to be a nightmare for
Republicans on the ballot this November. His extraordinary unpopularity
could help Democrats take over the U.S. Senate this fall and chomp into or
even erase Republicans' historic majority in the House of Representatives

People who study this kind of thing are projecting Democrats will also have
a good year at the state legislative level -- an area where the party
has been absolutely bludgeoned in the past four or so elections.

But here's the rub: It's not necessarily because of Trump.

Republicans control 68 (or 69 when you count the
nonpartisan-but-conservative Nebraska unicameral legislature) of 99
chambers, a near total reversal from six or so years ago.

This year, Democrats could stop their losing streak, predicts
<http://www.governing.com/topics/elections/gov-democrats-look-regain-ground-legislatures.html>
Louis
Jacobson <https://twitter.com/loujacobson>, a senior correspondent at
PolitiFact, a Governing Magazine columnist and the senior author of the
political-junkie must-have 2016 "Almanac of American Politics."

* [The Republican domination of state legislatures, in 2 maps
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/16/the-republican-domination-of-state-legislatures-in-2-maps/>]
*

In other words, this guy knows politics. And after talking to political
operatives in all 50 states, he's predicting Democratic gains in at least
half a dozen state chambers -- because of Trump's unpopularity, yes, but
also for a simpler reason: Democrats are simply so far behind that they
have nowhere to go but up.

Gaming out state legislative races might sound arcane, but here's our pitch
for why it's something to pay attention to: These are the lawmakers who, in
many states, will be redrawing the boundaries for congressional districts
in 2020. These are also the people who tend to run for higher office.

So The Fix caught up with Jacobson to chat about his predictions and what
they mean for the broader political narrative about Trump's effect on
down-ballot races. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

*THE FIX: Let's back up for a minute and talk about how Democrats got to
such a sorry state at the state legislative level.*

JACOBSON: The big story of recent years is that the Democrats have fallen
on hard times in the state Houses and state Senates. In the run-up to the
2010 election, the Democrats had a 62-to-36 advantage in terms of chamber
control. Now, it's 68 for the GOP and 30 for the Democrats. That's a total
reversal; 2-to-1 turning 1-to-2.

*THE FIX: Can we trace why Democrats lost so much ground?*

JACOBSON: A couple reasons. The sort of minor reason is that a whole bunch
of chambers in the South that were historically Democratic are really
almost entirely gone now. Leading up to 2010, those that have switched to
the GOP just aren't coming back for the Democrats anytime soon.

But the bigger, national reason is that it's a long-term pattern that the
party that holds the White House tends to lose stature down-ballot. This is
true for every party, though it's been particularly bad for Democrats
during the Obama years; the losses are a bit bigger in the congressional,
gubernatorial and state legislative ranks, but it's hardly unprecedented.
It's almost guaranteed at least going back to the Reagan years.

*THE FIX: And why does the party in the White House tend to do worse at the
state legislative level?*

JACOBSON: I think it's at least in part because voters see one thing at the
White House level and they aren't that happy with it; they try to do a
course correction at different levels. It's a check-and-balances kind of
thing.

Democrats could probably do better at the lower levels if a Republican
candidate won the White House, though I'm not sure they would want to make
that trade off. But that would be the fastest way to get back to a
competitive state for the Democrats.

*THE FIX: So if, say, Donald Trump wins in November, can Democrats expect
the next few state legislative elections to go great for them? Like, will
it all even out in the end?*

JACOBSON: Well, just because it's a historical pattern doesn't mean it's
not worrisome for Democrats. One of the biggest issues for them is
redistricting is coming up in 2020, so if you have Republicans in control
of a lot of states, they can draw the lines and sort of keep spiraling out
of control in terms of Democrats.

It also hurts them in terms of the farm team: If you don't have state
legislators, you don't get a good choice of candidates for governor, for
Senate and House and for the president. So the longer you go with a weak
team down-ballot, the harder it gets to climb out of that hole.

*THE FIX: So what's the good news for Democrats this year?*

JACOBSON: A key reason why the Democrats have reason for optimism in 2016
is that they're already kind of at rock bottom. You can only go up from
there. Combine that with the fact it's a presidential election year, so the
turnout tends to be more Democratic, as opposed to midterm years.

But then the wildcard is Trump. It looked like a few weeks ago he'd be
toxic all the way down the ballot, but recent polls are showing me that's
not the case anymore. I think we don't know what the answer to that is; we
have a lot way to go.

I did factor in the possibility that Trump could have a negative
down-ballot impact in at least certain purplish states. So on the margins,
that could help with Democrats. But really, fundamentally, it's that
Democrats are already in a bad position and can't help but go up.

*THE FIX: But even if they gain half a dozen chambers or so, that's not
going to get Democrats close to reversing the 2-to-1 trend Republicans have
over them.*

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JACOBSON: Right. Getting to parity is going to take a couple of cycles. And
it could go faster for them if Republicans win the White House. But we're
talking changes on the margin here. And some of the chambers that changed
Republican in recent years are not going to change back.

*THE FIX: So what states should we be watching to see if there is indeed a
Trump trend swinging even more state races in favor of Democrats?*

JACOBSON: There are a whole bunch of states where the Democrats do well in
the presidential level and should have a shot because they are strongly
competitive -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio.

It could be the same for state legislative races out West like in Arizona
and Nevada. If the possibility of a Trump candidacy can energize Latino
voters, then those are the kinds of places where Democrats picking up seats
in the legislature is a possibility.

But in most of these states, it doesn't look like Democrats can actually
take over one or two of those chambers in this cycle alone; it's a
multi-cycle effort.


Eric D. Schwerin
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com

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