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By Theodoric Meyer | 05/24/2016 10:05 AM EDT


With Elena Schneider, Kevin Robillard, Maggie Severns, Burgess Everett and Scott Bland

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

PRIMARY PREVIEW - Seven Republicans joust for open seat in GA-03: Seven Republicans and two Democrats are running to replace retiring Rep. Lynn Westmoreland in his deeply red seat - but a lot of voters don't know who those candidates are, Upson County Republican Party chairman Will Kendrick told the Atlanta Journal Constitution. At this point, operatives believe that "it's going to go to a runoff, no question," said Dan McLagan, who's working with Drew Ferguson, one of seven Republican candidates. "There's two tickets to this dance."

- Likely top-two finishers include Club for Growth- and House Freedom Caucus-backed state Sen. Mike Crane; Ferguson, the West Point mayor; and Peachtree City businessman Jim Pace, a partial self-funder. Crane has the strongest name recognition, and the Club for Growth's super PAC has continued to bolster it with district-wide cable TV ads. But Crane' has trailed both Pace and Ferguson in fundraising. A vintage toy shop owner, another small businessman, an Air Force master sergeant, a pastor, a volunteer activist and "master gardener" are also all running, the Journal Constitution reported.

- Republican incumbents try to fend off primary challenges in GA-09 and GA-11: GOP Rep. Doug Collins is trying to get a majority and avoid a runoff in the mountainous, northeastern 9th District. Collins has a cash advantage over his four primary opponents, but ex-Rep. Paul Broun once represented about half the district and other opponents have their own geographical bases, which could pull Collins under the 50 percent threshold. In suburban Atlanta's 11th District, freshman GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk is also hoping to bypass a runoff as he battles four primary opponents.

- Dems, GOP face open-seat runoffs in TX-15 and TX-19: The primaries to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Ruben Hinojosa and GOP Rep. Randy Neugebauer both feature matchups between more traditional, well-connected candidates and self-funders who have given their own campaigns over a million dollars. The Bush family and ex-Gov. Rick Perry are backing Jodey Arrington against Glen Robertson in the 19th District, while TX-15 Democrat Juan Palacios is leaning on his family's generational investment in local politics against self-funding attorney Vicente Gonzalez (who has backing from a number of sitting members of Congress). Read Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston on the two races:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ea7469122bb2102c6f75edb0e484043a1f5af5321e9872ca634d56d01d1cb985 and http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30630a6b13c17770ed0be51d79a61951d77062b67891f543400e043b06dd5e54

DOWN THE BALLOT - "GOP: Clinton could cost Democrats in battle for Senate," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Ask a vulnerable Republican senator on the ballot this fall about Donald Trump, and chances are you'll get an uncomfortable pause, or perhaps some mild criticism paired with a promise to "support the nominee." Ask about Hillary Clinton, though, and the straitjacket vanishes. 'Hillary Clinton is definitely going to be a major problem for Katie McGinty,' Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who has left the door open to abandoning Trump, said of his Democratic foe. ... With all the talk of Trump potentially dragging down Republicans and costing the GOP the Senate majority, Republicans say
everyone's overlooking the damage that Clinton - whose high unfavorables rival Trump's, according to a slate of recent polls - could do to down-ballot Democrats." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ea7469122bb2102c8ab518d442ec2340826670ae5d5598b695ba1b91c72da9a7

Days until the California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries, North Dakota's Democratic presidential primary and North Carolina's House primaries: 14.

Days until the 2016 election: 168.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com, and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and almost as much about Gilmore Girls: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

FORECASTING'S FUTURE - "Pollsters see future in 2016 social media buzz," by POLITICO's Nancy Scola: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d7a6103d60609ef5dbfc614e7f6a11d469fea8fde7010367f815f20d973330b6

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

FIRST IN SCORE - EMILY's List endorses Schwartz in CO-03: EMILY's List is endorsing former state Sen. Gail Schwartz, who's challenging GOP Sen. Scott Tipton in a Republican-leaning district. Schwartz was one of several recruits to come on the board late as Trump started racking up March primary wins. "Gail's commitment to defending women's access to health care, improving opportunities for rural communities, and protecting Colorado's natural resources demonstrate the important perspective she will bring to Congress," EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock said in a statement.

- TROUBLE AT HOME - Colorado AFL-CIO declines to endorse Bennet: Sen. Michael Bennet "was the only Democratic lawmaker in Colorado's congressional delegation who failed to gain the support of the state's AFL-CIO chapter," The Denver Post reports. "... Sam Gilchrist, executive director of the Colorado AFL-CIO, said the vote on Bennet was close, but that he fell short of the required two-thirds majority needed for an endorsement because too many union members were unhappy with Bennet's support of a measure last year that gives the White House more power to cut international trade deals." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d7a6103d60609ef5247941cec319873503376539afcfa8092105daa90e1b491a

MEMOS AND MANIFESTOS - The NRSC's Ward Baker on how Republican senators will run: Ward Baker, the National Republican Senatorial Committee's executive director, has outlined on Medium how Republican senators have tried to insulate themselves from the presidential race. "Republican Senators are talking to voters like they're running for sheriff," Baker writes. "Every message is highly targeted and purposefully local. ... Rob Portman and Kelly Ayotte are leading the fight against opioid abuse; Roy Blunt is a forceful advocate for mental health funding; John McCain and Ron Johnson are going above and beyond for reform and accountability at Veterans Affairs and VA hospitals. We want to make
sure voters are casting votes for Senate candidates based solely on issues related to that Senate race - not up, down, or adjacent on the ticket." Read the piece: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30630a6b13c1777093f6d86848f989070618168e6e1f849936f4fa14f7a02a22

AIR RAID - Labor ads go after Portman on Ohio TV: The American Federation of Teachers is running a new TV ad in Columbus starting tomorrow and running for two weeks, painting GOP Sen. Rob Portman as a Wall Street ally and advocate for privatizing Social Security. A 527 group affiliated with the AFT will spend $325,000 running the spot in Columbus. The ad features an older woman from Reminderville, Ohio, researching Portman on the internet. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d7a6103d60609ef58026755c9bffd8ca54320193c43e3f568575cdb1fb66e5f5

- AFSCME is also hitting the air to attack Portman: The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees attacks Rob Portman on trade issues in a $582,000 ad buy that will begin airing today. The ad, which will run in Cleveland and Youngstown, features a man discussing layoffs in his town as the result of free trade. "Rob Portman voted for NAFTA and other trading deals. He changed the playing field in a manner where America couldn't compete," he says. "Rob Portman pretty much gave our jobs away." Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30630a6b13c17770b5f4be37396e3f7b595b28fd5e09cd6cb15d2109aaa79533

- Johnson reserves Green Bay TV for the fall: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edb3064ab4e74f31f3e5d02a4faa2be26f65098241ed480f1dec6b0944546683

- Senate Majority PAC is reserving $10.5 million worth of airtime in Florida, CNN reports. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edb3064ab4e74f314a33494e11ec488dde82794c8ec7f459b2003d3bb1f5ec7f

- Israel narrates new Stern TV ad in NY-03: Retiring Democratic Rep. Steve Israel, who endorsed Steve Stern earlier this month to fill his Long Island House seat, cut a new TV ad for Stern ahead of the crowded Democratic primary. "Steve's strong enough to stand up to tea party Republicans who try to defund Planned Parenthood and shut down the government," Israel says in the spot. "He's also strong enough to bring people together to get things done." The ad is running on cable in the super-pricey New York City media market. Stern faces Anna Kaplan, Tom Suozzi, Jon Kaiman and Jonathan Clarke in the June 28 primary. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=30630a6b13c17770e331f9d8a274492131e5143d224ce1a2bb029bd5d01182a8

- Tea Party Express running TV ads for McCarthy in CA-23: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edb3064ab4e74f3122469fca1ca85537b2e142708ba5e4cd1e3b29df41f25fe4

FAREWELLS - Election analyst Stu Rothenberg leaving Roll Call: Rothenberg, who is the founding editor and publisher of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, tweeted Monday that he was ending his relationship with Roll Call. His column will be moving to his website instead. The prognosticator had been writing for Roll Call for 24 years while handicapping congressional races and more, which he'll continue doing. He's slated to have a new column up today: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edb3064ab4e74f31243a0a4166cb897354a8fbb0d7c9f2ba996e67def8504e52

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Clinton campaign plans battleground-state media blitz hitting Trump on housing crisis," by The Washington Post's Abby Phillip: "An army of Hillary Clinton's surrogates in battleground states will blast Donald Trump on Tuesday over his past statements about the housing market and his business record, according to a campaign aide. The coordinated push is the first of their efforts to frame the likely Republican nominee in the minds of swing voters even while Clinton continues to contest the Democratic primary against Bernie Sanders. About a dozen surrogates and local elected officials in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada
and elsewhere will host calls, events and release statements focused on Trump's response to the housing crisis that precipitated the economic recession." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edb3064ab4e74f31ed6d2ef18b16b1d7576d88b8ad5e7638509a896959dd7e8c

- "Trump fuels Democratic voter surge," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss: "When the deadline to register to vote in California's June 7 primary closes Monday evening, Democrats are expected to be the big winners. The party has enjoyed a dramatic spike in registration since the beginning of the year ... California added 1.5 million new voters through the end of April - double the number of new voters added during the same time period in 2012. And the total number of registered Democrats increased by nearly 100,000 people between the beginning of January and the beginning of April - compared to a gain of just 15,000 registered Republicans." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edb3064ab4e74f311ac5142fc4e90520b0167a3f97c1822e319b56093c4fc944

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "So what? Democracy is messy. Every day my life is messy." - Bernie Sanders, asked whether he thought the Democratic convention could get messy. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edb3064ab4e74f31bde62909f9e53f0fbfe8d29df7ad0d5553690a3c2bd661d2

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: News, opinions, and entertainment surround us 24/7, yet a fundamental truth remains, whether for competitive races or impactful ballot measures, the TV commercial reigns as the medium for reaching potential voters. TV helps strongly at the margins. Television is also the easiest way to reach undecided voters. Those passive folks who don't show up at the rallies or ask for email updates, but will be there to pull the levers on Election Day. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, one of the largest and most diversified television broadcasting companies in the country, we combine TV with targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad
solutions, to help your messaging break through the noise. Winning is what matters. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673. **

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