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The Evening CSIS: Terror Tip, Fed Watch, Can’t Help You & More
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** Good Evening,
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Welcome to
The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please sign up here (http://bit.ly/ecs1s) .


** Terrorism Tip
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Two years before the bombings that Ahmad Khan Rahami is suspected of carrying out in New York and New Jersey, his father told the police that he suspected his son might be involved in terrorism, prompting a review by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, as the
New York Times reports (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/nyregion/ahmad-khan-rahami-suspect.html) today.

And, the Wall Street Journal’s Devlin Barrett and Pervaiz Shallwani report (http://www.wsj.com/articles/n-y-bombing-suspects-father-accused-him-of-being-a-terrorist-in-2014-1474396860) that a blood-soaked notebook found on New York bombing suspect Ahmad Khan Rahami paints a disturbing picture of his motivations, suggesting he was inspired by terrorists at home and abroad and looked to avenge what he viewed as a US war on Muslims, according to law-enforcement officials.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Shannon Green published an op-ed in The Boston Globe yesterday, “Terrorism has been democratized, so too must counterterrorism (https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/09/19/terrorism-has-been-democratized-too-must-counterterrorism/KeWS88NAmwpKidExZByJOO/story.html) .”


** No Closer to Peace
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Today’s gathering of the top US and Russian diplomats, and more than a dozen of their Arab and European counterparts at the UN, ended with ritual reaffirmation of a cease-fire that has all but disintegrated, and promises of future negotiations. But it left Syria no closer to peace as the AP’s Bradley Klapper reports (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-says-russia-must-step-up-if-syria-truce-is-to-be-salvaged/2016/09/19/e7dd0cca-7ecf-11e6-ad0e-ab0d12c779b1_story.html) .

Meanwhile, as the New York Times’s Eric Schmitt, Michael Gordon and Somini Sengupta report (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/world/middleeast/syria-cease-fire.html?smid=tw-share) , the Obama administration thinks there is a high probability that Russian airstrikes were responsible for the deadly bombing of a United Nations humanitarian aid convoy.

And, as the AP reports (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/09/20/world/middleeast/ap-syria.html) , the UN has suspended Syria aid convoys.

Dive Deeper: In a new video (https://www.chathamhouse.org/file/syrias-war-why-kurdish-local-governance-key-long-term-peace) , Chatham House’s Ghadi Sary explains why in Syria’s war, “Kurdish local governance is key to long-term peace."


** On Watch
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US stocks and government-bond prices edged higher ahead of looming decisions from major central banks. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged tomorrow, but investors are watching to see if officials signal a rate rise later this year, as the
Wall Street Journal’s Riva Gold and Corrie Driebusch report (http://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-asia-soften-as-oil-price-reversal-weighs-on-energy-stocks-1474357552) .

And, according to CNBC Fed Survey: “Expect a December, Not September, Hike for Rates (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/20/cnbc-fed-survey-cnbcs-steve-liesman-expect-a-december-not-september-hike-for-rates.html) ."

Dive Deeper: Brookings’ Alice Rivlin published an op-ed yesterday: “Previewing this week’s Fed meetings—and all the fuss (https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/previewing-this-weeks-fed-meetings-and-all-the-fuss/) ."


** In That Number
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** 51
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The number of American companies that made significant commitments to aid refugees in the United States and around the world following President Obama’s June call to action. Source: White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/20/fact-sheet-white-house-announces-commitments-call-action-private-sector) .


** Critical Quote
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** “Allies who had become accustomed to America’s leadership were asking, ‘What’s the plan, Washington, what are you going to do?’ But for the first time what they were getting in return was, ‘What are you going to do?’”
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— CSIS’s Heather Conley on America’s global leadership style under President Obama and its impact on our allies. Source: CS Monitor (http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2016/0920/Once-a-rock-star-at-UN-Obama-now-faces-skeptical-world) .


** One to Watch
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Melissa Dalton (@natsecdalton (https://twitter.com/natsecdalton) ) is a senior fellow and the chief of staff of CSIS’s International Security Program. Melissa previously served as a senior adviser for force planning at the Defense Department, in addition to having served as an intelligence analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency. Melissa is quoted extensively in “Why Does the United States Give So Much Money to Israel? (http://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/500192/) ” by the Atlantic’s Emma Green.


** Optics
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(Photo Credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images.)

A woman arranges pictures of victims of an Iranian government massacre are displayed at a protest against the Iranian regime outside of the United Nations today in New York. Presidents, prime ministers, monarchs and ministers are gathering this week for the United Nation's General Assembly's annual ministerial meeting.


** Highly Recommended
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“Japan’s prime-minister-in-waiting trades nationalism for globalism (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/japans-prime-minister-in-waiting-trades-nationalism-for-globalism/2016/09/18/2c17abc2-7c3a-11e6-ac8e-cf8e0dd91dc7_story.html?utm_term=.6ee875e6d354) ,” by the
Washington Post’s Josh Rogin.


** This Town Tomorrow
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Join the Wilson Center at 9:00 a.m. for an all-day conference, “The 4th US-ROK Dialogue: New Northeast Asian Regional Outlook and the U.S.-R.O.K. Alliance (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-4th-us-rok-dialogue-new-northeast-asian-regional-outlook-and-the-us-rok-alliance#sthash.PTPYSjZh.dpuf) .”

Join the Atlantic Council at 12:30 p.m. for “Nuclear Energy: The Imperative for Innovation & Modernization (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/upcoming-events/detail/the-imperative-for-nuclear-energy-innovation-modernization) ,” featuring Senator Jim Inhofe (R-OK) and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI).

And GW’s Middle East Policy Forum will host “Russia and the Middle East (https://elliott.gwu.edu/calendar?trumbaEmbed=view%3Devent%26eventid%3D120476680) ” at 6:00 p.m. with a guest appearance by Ambassador Thomas Pickering.


** CSIS On Demand
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As territorial disputes continue (https://www.csis.org/analysis/arctic-watch-negotiations-over-north-pole) in the Arctic region, watch “Understanding a New Ocean: The Policy Implications of a Transforming Arctic (https://www.csis.org/events/understanding-new-ocean-policy-implications-transforming-arctic) ,” hosted by CSIS’s Europe Program last week.


** Sounds
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Listen to the latest ChinaPower podcast, “Why and How China Hacks: A Conversation with Samm Sacks (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/chinapower) .”


** I Like It Like That
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Incredible interactive graphic by the Peterson Institute: “Effects of a Trade War on the US (https://piie.com/research/piie-charts/effects-trade-war-us-states) .”


** Smiles
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Let’s talk about possibly the greatest guitar player you’ve never heard of.

Doyle Bramhall II was born into southern rock and roll and blues royalty. His dad, drummer Doyle Bramhall, Sr. played with blues greats’ Lightnin’ Hopkins and Freddie King and was a lifelong collaborator with Stevie Ray and Jimmy Vaughan beginning in high school. Sr. co-wrote little songs like “Tightrope” with Stevie Ray. Huge talent.

So why haven’t most of you heard of Bramhall II? Mostly because he has been playing in Eric Clapton’s band for the past decade. Clapton discovered Bramhall II and made it a point of keeping him busy. And aside from a couple of critically acclaimed solo records in the late 90s/turn of the millennium known mostly to serious rock insiders plus a brief stint with an Austin, Texas based super-group called the Arc Angels (we’ll talk more about them another time.) Bramhall II has been the ultimate sideman standing in the shadows next to Slowhand.

On September 30, that’s going to change with the release of Bramhall II’s long-awaited solo record, “Rich Man.” The album’s first single is called “Mama Can’t Help You (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gYfXL4rOto) ” and it sure is a groovy smile. Who says rock is dead?


** Feedback
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I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)

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The Evening CSIS is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, Jackie Ramsay, and James Dunton.

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